On October 13, India’s Ministry of Home Affairs issued a notification revoking president’s rule in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). With this, the decks have been cleared for the formation of a new government in the union territory (UT).
A National Conference (NC)-led alliance, which won the recent elections to the J&K assembly, is set to form the new government, and NC Vice-President Omar Abdullah will be sworn in as J&K chief minister on October 16. He will be the UT’s first chief minister.
Uppermost on Abdullah’s agenda will be the restoration of J&K’s statehood.
On August 5, 2019, the Narendra Modi government revoked J&K’s autonomy and stripped it of its statehood. The erstwhile state was split into two UTs – J&K and Ladakh – to be directly ruled from New Delhi.
Soon after the NC-led coalition’s election victory, Abdullah said that the “first business of the Cabinet should be to pass a resolution asking for statehood to be restored to Jammu and Kashmir and the CM should travel to Delhi with that resolution, call on the senior leadership of the country” and ask them to fulfil their promise of restoring J&K’s statehood.
While upholding the revocation of J&K’s autonomy, the Supreme Court of India had in said in its December 2023 ruling that J&K’s statehood should be restored “at the earliest.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have repeatedly pledged to restore J&K’s statehood.
Will they do so now that J&K has an elected government?
That seems unlikely in the near future.
As Abdullah observed last week, it is “foolish” to expect the Modi government, which had revoked J&K’s autonomy in the first place, to restore it now. A change in government in New Delhi was needed to get Article 370 restored, he said.
Abdullah’s NC was in a pre-poll alliance with the Congress Party and the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M). The NC won 42 seats, the Congress six, and the CPI-M one. That gave them a comfortable majority in the 90-member J&K assembly. With four independents and one Aam Aadmi Party legislator extending support to Abdullah now, the new government has gained additional stability.
And yet Abdullah faces enormous challenges ahead.
This is the second time that he will be J&K’s chief minister. During his first stint as chief minister (2009-2015), he helmed an NC-Congress alliance government. Those were turbulent years in J&K; the erstwhile state was roiled in stone pelting and months-long mass protests over a sex scandal, civilian killings, a rape and murder at Shopian, and the hanging of the 2001 Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru.
That his coalition partner – the Congress – was at that time heading the federal government in New Delhi made things easier for Abdullah.
This is not the case this time around. The NC and its partners in the J&K government sit in the opposition in Parliament. India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will sit on the opposition benches in the J&K assembly.
Over the past decade, and especially post-2019, the Modi government has worked assiduously toward tightening its grip over J&K. In addition to weakening regional parties like the NC and People’s Democratic Party, it had electoral boundaries redrawn to benefit the BJP in elections. Yet these efforts could not bring it to power in J&K.
The BJP will “spare no opportunity in the coming years to unsettle the NC-led government,” a professor at the Kashmir University in Srinagar told The Diplomat.
During Abdullah’s previous stint as chief minister, J&K was a state and the chief minister enjoyed more powers. This time, he is chief minister of a UT; his powers are restricted. Moreover, a couple of months ahead of the assembly election, the Modi government transferred many of the powers of the elected government in J&K , such as those relating to police and public order, appointment and transfer of bureaucrats, to the lieutenant governor, an appointee of New Delhi.
“Local police will not be under the chief minister’s control but under the direct control of the Union Home Ministry,” the professor said. It will be New Delhi that will determine how to handle law and order problems, protests, and unrest.
An important challenge for Abdullah is to maintain a balance between the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley and the Hindu-dominated Jammu. Most of the NC victories were from Kashmir; it won just a handful of seats from Jammu. The BJP on the other hand won all its 29 seats from the Jammu region. Abdullah will have to ensure enough representation from Jammu and the Hindu community in his new government.
Abdullah will have to tread carefully in dealing with the lieutenant governor as well as the Modi government. His first responses after his electoral victory indicate a cautious, even realistic approach.
In the five years since the revocation of Article 370, Abdullah has been vociferous in calling for its restoration. This was a top item on the agenda of the NC election manifesto.
Last week, Abdullah said that he was “set[ting] aside for now” the restoration of Article 370.
The abrogation of Article 370 is a fait accompli and “no major political party in India, certainly not the BJP but also the Congress, would back him in getting it restored. Abdullah will raise the issue from time to time but not harp on it,” the Kashmir University professor said.
Abdullah also understands how dependent his government is on New Delhi, whether for funds for development or the survival and functioning of his government. He has therefore adopted a conciliatory tone toward the Modi government.
Signaling the NC’s willingness to work with the central government, Abdullah underscored the importance of the new J&K government having “a healthy relationship with the Government of India,” adding that the NC “will not be playing politics with this relationship.”
In the coming months, Abdullah will focus on restoration of J&K’s statehood and its economic development. For both, he will need the Modi government’s support. Will that be forthcoming? How close to the BJP will Abdullah need to get to secure that support?