The 2024 U.S. presidential election is arguably the most influential in American history. With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump of the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, representing two different visions, who will occupy the White House will impact U.S. foreign policy, with implications for India.
India is recognized by both Democrat and Republican administrations as a key partner of the United States in the Indo-Pacific for countering China’s rising influence, and as a major defense partner. India and the U.S. have deepened strategic cooperation across key technology sectors. One of the most significant developments in recent years is the launch of the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) in 2023. India and the U.S. have increased regular engagements to step up cooperation in the fields of artificial intelligence, biotechnology and clean energy.
The seeds of this bilateral relationship were sowed under the Clinton administration as a Vision for the 21st Century. Since Clinton, every U.S. president has visited India. Indian prime ministers and foreign ministers have maintained these ties through regular interactions at bilateral and multilateral forums, signaling the strength of India’s relationship with the United States, regardless of the leadership.
With the importance of robust India-U.S. cooperation growing, the Indian leadership appears confident that the presidential election will not impact New Delhi’s close relationship with Washington. “We have every confidence that we will be able to work with the president of the United States, whoever he or she will be,” India’s Minister for External Affairs S. Jaishankar said recently.
Yet from the speeches at the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, the presidential and vice-presidential debates, and the respective party platforms, it appears that the policies that a Harris or Trump presidency will adopt vis-à-vis China, Russia, and immigration will impact India and merit watching closely.
Trade With China
Both Trump and Harris believe in strengthening the United States’ economic resilience. Part of this vision is to reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese imports. However, the two candidates have put forward differing strategies to achieve this. Trump aims to continue and deepen the U.S. trade war with China by adopting a protectionist approach and imposing a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports. This, he believes, will compel Beijing to make concessions and increase purchases of U.S. manufactured products, thereby shrinking the trade deficit.
In the past four years, the Biden-Harris administration has introduced trade barriers on sectors such as critical minerals, semiconductors, and healthcare products. Additionally, they imposed sweeping export restrictions on advanced computing semiconductors, manufacturing equipment, and other supercomputing items to China. Harris’ approach looks at increasing investments in the U.S. to strengthen its competitiveness. This can be achieved by encouraging allies like the Netherlands and Japan to impose similar export controls on China. Further, Harris intends to create the “America Forward” strategy to usher a U.S. manufacturing comeback such as through the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act and investments in sectors that will “define the next century,” namely, biomanufacturing, aerospace, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and the blockchain.
Regardless of the strategy, “American economic policy toward China likely will grow tighter,” Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution concluded. The U.S. will work toward de-risking from China and shifting manufacturing supply chains to other Asian countries. It must be noted that between 2018-2022, India’s exports to the U.S. increased by 44 percent. Therefore, the U.S. search for secure and trusted supply chains will open up opportunities for deeper engagement with India.
Russia-Ukraine War
Harris and Trump have articulated different approaches to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The Democratic campaign has stressed the success of the Biden-Harris administration in restricting Moscow’s territorial gains in Ukraine. For this success to continue, the United States will need to rally support from its NATO allies and continue military supply to Ukraine. On the other hand, the Republicans will have to grapple with Trump’s unpredictability as he attempts to nudge an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to demilitarize the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.
India’s ability to balance its relationship between the U.S. and Russia is likely to be impacted by who sits in the White House. Under a Harris administration, New Delhi will continue to be pushed to use its close ties with Moscow to encourage an end to the war and reduce its defense and economic links with Russia. Under a second Trump administration, India-Russia ties may not come under the same adversarial gaze and could potentially grow.
For example, in 2018 India finalized a $5.5 billion deal to procure five units of S-400 air defense missile systems from Russia. While then-President Trump cautioned India about possible sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), they were not imposed immediately. The Biden-Harris administration in 2022 considered a waiver for India, citing “immediate and serious regional border threats from China, with continued military aggression by the Government of China along the India-China border” and India’s reliance on Russian-built weapons for national defense. These waivers, however, have still not been approved in 2024 even as the Biden-Harris administration continues to encourage India’s gradual transition away from Russian-built weapons.
Immigration
Immigration and border security are critical issues in these elections. Both candidates look to limit immigrants to the United States, yet have differing perspectives.
Harris aims to install a system to encourage “earned citizenship” and revive the bipartisan border security bill. Her campaign seeks legislative reform to fix the “broken immigration system.” This will entail increased funding for border agents (about $20 billion), detention facilities, and fentanyl detection technology. Essentially, this will involve creation of 250,000 green card-eligible employment-based and family visas. This will result in 13 percent employment-based and 7 percent family-based visa increases.
Trump, however, staunchly supports mass deportations and an end to birthright citizenship. He looks to rampantly curb illegal migration flows into the country by reverting to his 2019 “Remain in Mexico” program and ending automatic citizenship for illegal immigrant children born in the United States. As president, Trump took steps to implement visa restrictions and a “merit-based immigration system” that would apply to the most thoroughly vetted college graduates “who would never undercut American wages or workers.”
These diverging stances are important to Indians, who account for 20 percent of the Asian American population in the U.S. Visa restrictions were increased under the Obama and Trump administrations. While the two parties in 2024 are positioned differently politically, increasing visa restrictions will leave the status and progress of high-skilled immigration from India to the U.S. under question.
Tech Cooperation Will Be Key
The technology partnership between the two countries will remain a focal point of the India-U.S. relationship, whatever the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
It was under the Trump administration that India was granted Strategic Trade Authorization-1 status and further initiatives such as the iCET and strategic trade dialogue were launched under the Biden-Harris administration. India has also joined U.S.-led initiatives such as the Minerals Security Partnership and the Artemis Accords to deepen the trade-technology linkage. Further, India’s imports of semiconductors for national security stand at $1 billion per year and the partnership continues to be strengthened to “facilitate the development and trade of technologies in critical domains such as semiconductors, space, telecom, quantum, AI, defense, bio-tech and others.” Cooperation in this domain will continue to grow regardless of the change in the U.S. leadership.
Even with confidence in the strength and resiliency of this relationship, questions on India’s capacity and capability to respond to the impact of these potential policy shifts remain unanswered. For instance, while the shift in manufacturing supply chains away from China and toward India is certainly welcome, it requires appropriate preparation to meet the incoming demand. There are doubts about the creation of dedicated export-oriented manufacturing cities along with expanding domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Whether under a Harris or Trump administration, the evolving geopolitical and trade dynamics will require India to adeptly balance its relationship with the U.S. and incorporate strategies to further its regional and global interests.