Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election is being viewed by many countries, including U.S. friends and foes, with much trepidation.
This is not only because of his unpredictability but also because his second term in the White House will be in a world that is considerably different, even more complicated, than the one he operated in during his first term in 2017-2021. This is a world where uncertainties are high, and two major wars are roiling the world. The China-U.S. rivalry has intensified, and there is a question mark over the new security architecture President Joe Biden was putting in place in Asia to contain China.
In his first response to Trump’s victory, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X: “Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.”
In comparison to his first response to Trump’s victory in 2016, Modi’s recent post indicates greater optimism about the implications of a Trump victory for India-U.S. relations. This is partly a response to the fact that India-U.S. ties during Trump’s first presidency were largely positive, albeit with some difficulties over trade and tariffs. Importantly, the two leaders built a close personal equation during Trump’s first presidential term.
Overall, New Delhi is optimistic that the convergences between India and the United States will outweigh the differences, even with someone as transactional as Trump.
Many in the Indian establishment believe that given Trump’s disinterest in democratic and human rights issues, the Modi government will be spared uncomfortable questions from his administration over the treatment of religious minorities as well as curbs on the internet and the press in India. These were issues that Biden administration officials raised with their Indian interlocutors.
An important irritant that cropped up in India-U.S. relations in the past year was the alleged involvement of senior Indian officials in the plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a U.S.-Canadian citizen living in the United States. Canada leveled similar allegations against New Delhi over the 2023 shooting of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada’s British Colombia province.
Both Nijjar and Pannun are of Sikh origin and advocates of an independent Khalistan state for Sikhs to be carved out of India’s Punjab state.
India has categorically denied any links to both the Nijjar killing and the alleged plot to kill Pannun. However, while it has dismissed Canadian accusations of the involvement of top Indian government functionaries as preposterous and continually asked Canada to show evidence of their claims, India’s government has been cooperating with the Biden administration on the matter.
With Trump set to occupy the White House, there is hope in New Delhi that Washington’s focus on the Pannun issue would dissipate. There is also the expectation that India’s concerns over the implications of Khalistani groups for India’s security will fall on more receptive ears in the Trump administration.
Trump’s return to the White House may also ease U.S. pressure on India regarding its ties with Russia. The Biden administration was unhappy with the Modi government’s purchase of Russian oil. Modi’s cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a recent visit to Russia was frowned upon in Washington, prompting New Delhi to balance its ties with Moscow and Kyiv more visibly.
On the campaign trail, Trump promised to swiftly end the war in Ukraine, though the contours of his plan are not clear. News reports indicate that the Trump administration may not continue with support for Ukraine. This will free New Delhi from having to do a balancing act between Russia and Ukraine.
Trump’s first presidency was a period when India-U.S. strategic cooperation in multilateral and bilateral formats increased. Indian strategists view Trump as the president who not only revived the Quad in 2017 to counter the challenge posed by China in Asia but also, elevated Quad meetings to the foreign ministerial level in September 2019. It was this momentum imparted under Trump’s watch that allowed the Quad to acquire enough substance to be elevated further to the level of leaders’ summits starting in 2021. The Hawai’i-based Pacific Command was also renamed the Indo-Pacific Command.
During Trump’s presidency, India-U.S. strategic engagement received a boost with the launch of discussions in the 2+2 dialogue format between their defense and foreign ministers to discuss key global and bilateral issues. It contributed to placing bilateral ties on a stronger footing, opening a significant chapter in the bilateral relationship of two countries that were on opposite sides during the Cold War.
The first 2+2 Dialogue held in New Delhi in 2018 also served as the backdrop for the signing of the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), dealing with secure military communication and increasing the scope for interoperability. The Trump administration bolstered defense ties with India by including it among the top U.S. partners in Asia, entitled to license-free exports, re-exports, and transfers under License Exception Strategic Trade Authorization (STA-1).
India did face some challenges on the trade front during Trump’s first term, especially over its high tariff walls. However, it began to import fuel from the U.S., which helped narrow the trade deficit that was in India’s favor. The United States, under Trump, co-hosted the Global Entrepreneurship Summit (GES) with India in Hyderabad in 2017. This helped focus world attention on business prospects in India.
India could encounter problems from Trump 2.0 in the areas of immigration, trade, and funding for green and renewable energy sources.
In his campaign speeches, Trump vowed to “seal the border and stop the migrant invasion.” He also promised mass deportations of undocumented migrants. For India, the problem is with the issuance of H-1B visas, which are popular with Indian IT professionals working in the U.S. During his previous White House tenure, Trump cracked down on what he termed as fraudulent use of H-1B visas and warned companies against discriminating against U.S. workers by over-hiring foreign workers under the visa program.
On the campaign trail, Trump described India as the “biggest charger” of import tariffs. As president, he could pressure India for more concessions on the trade front, especially to cut tariffs.
India may draw Trump’s ire for its ties with Iran. After Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, New Delhi faced intense pressure to cut down on its oil imports from Iran. As a consequence, Indian imports from Iran dropped to zero.
Trump’s policy vis-a-vis the Middle East will become clearer in the coming weeks. In his first term, he was seen as a supporter of Israel, shifting the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and crafting the Abraham Accords that normalized ties between Israel and its Arab neighbors. According to a CNN report, Trump could seek an end to the war in Gaza although without supporting a Palestinian state. A return of peace to the region would mean a boost to the collaboration among the India-Israel-U.S.-UAE grouping – I2U2 – and also perhaps the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
India has launched several projects, including the development of green hydrogen as fuel that will require substantial investments in terms resources and technology. Given Trump’s lack of interest in climate issues, U.S. funding for green projects could dry up.
All said, India and the United States will find ways to reduce friction points in the coming four years. This is because successive governments in both countries prioritized and paid attention to building bilateral strategic trust.