Japan held a general election for the lower house of parliament on October 27, following Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s decision to call a snap election after his triumph in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race earlier that month. While the lower house dissolution was unexpected, many saw it as a maneuver by the new administration to gauge public opinion and solidify its mandate from the outset.
But this move backfired. For the first time in 15 years, the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the chamber. Reuters described the outcome as a “punishment” for the two parties, a direct consequence of the kickback scandal that had gripped national headlines since last year. Dozens of politicians – primarily from the LDP – were implicated in creating slush funds, allegedly generated from kickback proceeds of selling tickets to fundraising events.
Voters appeared disillusioned with the scandal-plagued governing party, which has long wielded unchecked power in Japan. While Ishiba was elected as prime minister in a parliamentary vote on November 11, he presides over a minority government that will find its actions uncomfortably restrained. With fresh momentum building, the demand for reform is ever stronger.
In Tokyo’s corridors of power, few are as resolute in their push for change as Noda Yoshihiko, head of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and former prime minister (2011-2012). His role in securing a major increase in the CDP’s seat count in October has once again catapulted Noda to the forefront of Japan’s political landscape. He was able to force a runoff in the November 11 vote to select Japan’s next prime minister, an occurrence that hasn’t happened in 30 years.
In a recent interview with The Diplomat, Noda Yoshihiko outlined his efforts to rebuild public trust and shared his vision for strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance.
(Editor’s note: This interview was conducted just before the November 11 vote to select the prime minister.)
The latest lower house election was a massive setback for the LDP, while the CDP performed strongly. What do you think accounts for this outcome?
On October 1, an extraordinary Diet session was convened, and a new prime minister, Ishiba Shigeru, was elected. Many expected the session to focus on issues such as the restoration of the Noto Peninsula (an area wrecked by a recent earthquake) and the revision of the Political Funds Law, which had been weak and full of loopholes. There was also an expectation that the ongoing issue of slush funds would be properly addressed.
However, Prime Minister Ishiba held the shortest parliamentary session in postwar history before announcing that the House of Representatives would be dissolved on October 9. Our party [the CDP] viewed this move as an attempt to bury the slush fund scandal. We made it a key election issue, insisting it should neither be forgiven nor forgotten. It appears our message resonated with the public.
Meanwhile, under pressure, the LDP made several missteps. For instance, several candidate endorsements were canceled (due to their involvement in the slush fund scandal), and candidates whose endorsements were previously revoked were reinstated. I believe this contributed to the public’s shift in support toward us as the leading opposition party. Voters, discontented by the ongoing money-in-politics scandal, sent a clear message of “NO” to the LDP and Komeito government.
Can the public’s trust be restored?
Thirty years ago, during the “Heisei Reforms,” both the ruling and opposition parties engaged in a fierce debate that led to changes in the Election Law, the Political Funds Law, and more. Now, 30 years later, we face the need for what I would call “Reiwa Reforms.”
One of the key failures of the Kishida Fumio administration [which preceded Ishiba] was the unilateral decision-making of the LDP and Komeito. Moving forward, the ruling and opposition parties must work together to reform and rebuild public trust, aiming for unity. We must take on this challenge with the mindset that it could be our last chance to make a meaningful difference.
Will the CDP be able to reclaim the government as it did in 2009?
Even back then, the LDP’s prime ministers were short-lived. The impact of the Lehman Shock [in 2008] and other factors severely tarnished the LDP’s image, branding it as a dysfunctional party. This allowed the then Democratic Party of Japan, predecessor to the CDP, to seize the reins of government.
After more than a decade of LDP dominance, though, the party’s hold on power became entrenched, and a sense of political accountability gradually faded. This complacency bred a self-righteousness that ultimately gave rise to the current slush fund controversy. The public has begun to feel that a more accountable political system is needed again, and this growing sense of displeasure is what contributed to the shift we are witnessing right now.
What is one key policy you hope to achieve?
Before focusing on policy, we must first address the deep erosion of trust in politics. Without regaining the public’s trust, we cannot effectively promote any policies. To that end, the opposition parties are collaborating on a serious proposal to revise the law on political funds.
One of Japan’s greatest strengths has been its robust middle class, but this is steadily shrinking. More and more people are being pushed toward the lower rungs of society. Rebuilding this social structure is crucial. We need to create a strong safety net to prevent people from falling into poverty while supporting those striving to climb the economic ladder. Establishing such a system is essential for Japan’s future.
Like Japan, a lot is happening on the international stage. Japan’s ally, the United States, recently elected Donald Trump as its new president. Do you have any comments?
First and foremost, I would like to congratulate the newly elected [resident of the United States. This year is an election year, and each election, including the U.S., has brought significant change.
The Japan-U.S. alliance is the cornerstone of our security, so it’s vital we maintain strong bilateral ties. Japan should work to build a personal relationship with President-elect Donald Trump, and from there, we must ensure that our partnership evolves to a point where both sides can candidly address global issues and speak openly about our respective needs and concerns.
Will the alliance become more relevant as global tensions continue to rise?
Take, for instance, North Korea’s recent deployment of its troops to Ukraine, which adds another layer of complexity in Northeast Asia. While it’s unclear how things will ultimately unfold, there is a real possibility that cooperation between Russia and North Korea will deepen. If that happens, it will be crucial to find ways to address the emerging challenges, with the Japan-U.S. alliance playing a pivotal role in countering these developments.
In the case of Ukraine, Japan has also provided significant support. Therefore, strengthening diplomatic ties with NATO will become increasingly important, and we need to encourage European countries to commit more to the security concerns of Northeast Asia. Here again, the Japan-U.S. alliance will undoubtedly play a central role, and I hope we can continue to exchange views on these critical issues.