On December 26 in the city of Chengdu, China, a new generation, stealthy combat aircraft made by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC) had its maiden flight. Images and videos emerged in near real time, showing the highly swept flying wing aircraft accompanied by a J-20S twin-seat chase plane. This aircraft generated significant furor on defense tracking internet and news sites, with questions surrounding its role, capability, maturity, and more.
For the community of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) watchers, this aircraft was not unexpected. I have published articles on Chinese next-generation fighter efforts over the last half decade. Indicators over the last year-and-a-half strongly suggested a new generation/sixth-generation air-to-air combat aircraft would emerge rather soon, and these hints accelerated over the past four months, with increasing details on the type of platform to expect.
The PLA watching community’s working designation of this new CAC aircraft is the “J-36,” in reference to its expected tasking as an air-to-air/air superiority platform, with “36” reflecting the visible serial number: 36011. I will refer to the aircraft as “J-36” as well, with the proviso that both its prefix and suffix are not yet definitive (I have previously used the term “J-XD” as a stand-in).
In this article, I will review the leadup to the J-36’s maiden flight, current knowns and unknowns, as well as prevailing debates and narratives surrounding it. I will also consider its role in the PLA Air Force, and key topics to consider in future.
I have no particular opinion on calling the J-36 a “sixth-generation” aircraft, and prefer to describe it as “new” or “next generation.” Furthermore, I will not discuss the new generation stealthy combat aircraft that Shenyang Aerospace Corporation (SAC) had flown earlier in December, except to acknowledge that the emergence of that aircraft was somewhat surprising.
(Note that neither the J-36 nor the new SAC aircraft has any relation to the “White Emperor” fictional comic model shown at Zhuhai Airshow 2024. The mere presence of the “White Emperor” in discussions of “sixth-generation aircraft” is misleading at best, and active misinformation at worst. It would be akin to including the “Darkstar” from “Top Gun: Maverick” in an analysis of real-world hypersonic aircraft development.)
The J-36’s Debut: Not Really a Surprise
The leadup to the J-36’s emergence holds uncanny similarities to the emergence of the J-20, nearly 14 years ago to the day, showing that history does indeed rhyme. Both were preceded by significant periods of credible rumors and increasingly granular predictions by the Chinese language PLA watching community, but both aircraft emerged somewhat unexpectedly for individuals not up to date with the PLA watching side of affairs.
Some have remarked that the date for the J-36’s maiden flight might seek to commemorate the December 26 birthday of Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China. Milestones of other major projects – such as the SAC jet, the launch of the 076 catapult amphibious assault ship, the first flight of the new KJ-3000 AEW&C aircraft – have occurred around the same time, but this may simply be a coincidence as they did not all occur on the exact date of December 26.
At present, there has been no official Chinese state media or Ministry of Defense acknowledgement of this aircraft, and thus no official “boasting” or “flaunting” of the aircraft, its sophistication, or role. The images and videos making the rounds on social media were captured by individuals on the ground in Chengdu, which is a major metropolitan city where the CAC factory is located. There are strong reasons to believe that the J-36 was preceded by multiple secretive flying demonstrators in the past, of which one possibly may have been captured by satellite imagery.
The “36011” serial number may be indicative of an aircraft closer to a developmental prototype than a demonstrator – for example, the first J-20 flown in early 2011 was a demonstrator with serial “2001” and serial “2011,” which flew in 2014, was representative of a developmental prototype.
Some have compared the flight of the J-36 with U.S. Air Force (USAF) demonstrators secretly flown in the past for Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD); however the validity of this comparison would depend on how the J-36 and the various USAF NGAD demonstrators relate to their respective final production models.
With no official information from the Chinese government, the J-36’s role is under debate. Some analysts have strongly suggested the aircraft is a bomber aircraft, or a fighter-bomber aircraft with only a secondary air-to-air role. These have been mostly informed by reporting of the “JH-XX” fighter-bomber concept (which I have documented before), and the aircraft’s size and planform. These are not unreasonable estimates in isolation, but somewhat pale in the face of credible indicators from the PLA watching grapevine, as well as the emerging trends of aerial combat.
Characteristics and Unknowns
Preliminary estimates of the J-36 suggest a length of around 22 meters and a wingspan of around 20 m, though some have suggested a length as great as 26 m. It features a low observable, double delta tailless flying wing planform, with a rather voluminous and blended fuselage. A canopy is present, with some unconfirmed rumors that it may feature a two-pilot cockpit with side-by-side seating.
There are two side air intakes of a caret design, and also a dorsal air intake of unclear geometry. The aircraft is powered by a unique three engine configuration, presumably fed by one intake each, and imagery thus far seems to indicate a low observable exhaust design, possibly reminiscent of that of YF-23. Some have suggested the two lateral engines may possess thrust vector control (TVC).
A large central internal weapons bay (IWB) is visible, which may be long enough to accommodate the very long-range PL-17 air to air missile, though it is unknown if the depth is sufficient to accommodate a rotary launcher. There are two suspected smaller side IWBs as well, which look to rival the J-20’s primary IWB in length.
This is a large aircraft, with some estimates of its maximum takeoff weight exceeding 50 tons. Dual wheel main landing gear is testament to its mass. However, substantial control surfaces on the aircraft’s trailing edge are also visible, including split flap rudders on the outboard wing positions, and may indicate a complex and ambitious flight control regime, particularly if the engines also possess TVC.
Naturally, there are far more unknown characteristics at this stage. The identity of its current powerplants is unclear, with some suggesting either three WS-10 variants or three WS-15 variants. At this stage there are no credible indicators to believe any of the engines are different or intended to operate in a separate flight regime from the others (such as a ramjet). The full intended weapons suite, sensor fit, avionics, networking, electronic warfare (EW), materials, and power generation are all unknown as well, and will likely remain so for many decades into the future.
Overall, this appears to be a large airframe optimized for signature reduction, range, internal volume, and high-altitude as well as high-speed performance, with the ability to maneuver at higher speed regimes, but perhaps not seeking to optimize maneuvering in subsonic speeds. It is unlikely this aircraft will perform post-stall maneuvers like Pugachev’s Cobra or Falling Leaf at an airshow during its lifetime.
The J-36’s Role and Air Warfare Evolution
Consensus on the Chinese language grapevine that predicted this aircraft (as well as a variety of other past projects, including the J-20, J-35/A, J-15T, 002 and 003 aircraft carriers, 075 and 076 amphibious assault ships, among many others), describe it as the intended next-generation air superiority aircraft for the PLA. Some papers on the nature of future air combat have been published by senior aerospace engineers at CAC, though they are predictably general in scope and do not reveal specific or sensitive information in relation to the J-36. (I have documented previous semi-official indicators for CAC’s next-generation/sixth- generation efforts in earlier articles.)
The PLA watching community has been marginally more forthcoming on the J-36’s role. A summary of credible descriptors indicates that relative to existing fifth-generation aircraft (including the J-20), this aircraft is intended to possess significantly greater combat radius, superior and omnidirectional signature reduction, significantly greater power generation with sensor and EW capabilities. It will possess a greater IWB as well. Furthermore, the aircraft is expected to excel and operate in a system of systems manner alongside friendly unmanned platforms (unmanned combat air vehicles or “loyal wingmen,” from high end to more attritable systems) as well as manned aircraft. The J-36 is believed to possess much enhanced command and networking capabilities.
Kinematic maneuvering is also expected, however with less emphasis on within visual range domains and greater emphasis on higher speeds. The aircraft is primarily air-to-air oriented, though strike is a viable secondary role.
The above descriptors track quite well with the J-36 aircraft that has emerged, with due recognition that in some respects, the J-36 may resemble how one might envision a “modern stealthy, theater striker” (such as past concepts of a “FB-22”) to look rather than a traditional “fighter aircraft.” However, this is not unexpected for an air superiority aircraft for the next generation. The United States’ NGAD has been described as potentially not resembling a traditional fighter, as has the latest design concept for the Italy-Japan-U.K. sixth-generation fighter, yet air superiority is central for those programs too. Even the B-21 bomber has been described by Northrop Grumman as the world’s “first sixth-generation aircraft,” further blurring the lines between what actually defines a sixth-generation combat platform.
I would humbly argue that the future of air superiority will emphasize stealthy, persistent manned platforms equipped with sufficient power generation, networking, and sensors to network with and command increasingly sophisticated and autonomous UCAVs alongside existing manned tactical aircraft. Aerial warfare will increasingly eschew within visual range engagements in pursuit of beyond visual range and system of system combat that is higher yield and more lethal, with design priorities emphasizing such traits as well. The threat of within visual range engagements in turn would be mitigated and countered through superior situational awareness to enable advantageous tactical positioning and first-engagement opportunities through the platform or friendly assets.
Indeed, the term “fighter” might well become anachronistic, as the next generation could be better described as “high performance, weaponized command platforms” (admittedly an overly complex nomenclature). Thus, perhaps a generic term such as “combat aircraft” may be appropriate. Some have even suggested the J-36 is the equivalent of an “aerial destroyer” or “aerial cruiser” in terms of its capability for command, networking, persistence, and weapons capacity in context of the contemporary aerial warfare landscape, though a direct naval analogy introduces misunderstandings as well.
What to Watch: J-36 Discourse and Future Developments
Going forward, the discourse surrounding the J-36 will likely be as interesting as the future development of the aircraft itself.
One can foresee debates around whether the J-36 means “Chinese leadership” in the tactical aviation space, with both boosters and detractors for their own reasons (for the record, I believe such a position is foolish, and the emergence of the J-36 merely reflects the emergence of genuine competition).
The question of whether the J-36 can be defined as a “sixth-generation” aircraft will also be debated. One may reasonably argue that we should wait for the USAF NGAD program to reach fruition prior to defining the sixth generation based on the J-36 alone. Loathing and enthusiasm alike may prompt predictions that the J-36 will cause the USAF to replicate the “Mig-25/F-15” reaction. It is popularly (and mostly erroneously) believed that the development of the successful and generationally dominant F-15 emerged from an overestimation of and overreaction to the Mig-25.
It is likely that persistent debates over the J-36’s role as a primary bomber will occur, despite the lead that the Chinese language PLA watching grapevine has provided, and despite the questionable fit between the J-36’s observable traits and likely PLA bomber needs.
The identity of its powerplant remains a mystery, as well as its future intended powerplant (there is a high likelihood of variable cycle engines finding their way aboard in the future). Going forward, the PLA watching community will track progress in developmental testing, initial production, and service entry, alongside how procurement of the J-36 will proceed with other programs such as the J-20 family and the land-based J-35A. Related aerial combat platforms such as the H-20, and the many inevitable UCAV platforms of varying tiers will also be significant.
Finally, the J-36 has again demonstrated the leading role of the Chinese language PLA watching apparatus in projecting and informing emergent PLA military projects, relative to defense media or public facing U.S. government reports (needless to say, genuine intelligence estimates with higher classification ratings are another matter, but these are not available to the public). It may be instructive for authors and publications of PLA news to revise their own methodology of tracking such news.