On January 6, North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile, according to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). Monday’s launch is the North’s first reported ballistic missile test since it tested multiple short-range ballistic missiles on November 5, 2024.
According to the JCS, the missile was launched from the area of Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, and flew about 1,100 km before falling into the sea off its east coast. Considering the range and apogee of the launched missile, the North could have tested a suspected hypersonic missile, an upgraded version of what it tested in January and April of last year.
The South’s JCS said the South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities have monitored the North’s military movements and have reinforced their surveillance and vigilance posture, according to the South’s local media reports. The JCS also said it is maintaining military readiness and can overwhelmingly respond to any military provocations from North Korea under South Korea’s joint defense posture with the United States.
No details of the missile’s performance have been disclosed by the North Korean state-controlled media as of this writing, but it may make reports on the test in the coming days.
Amid the political chaos stemming from South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s illegitimate declaration of martial law, North Korea had not carried out any missile tests – perhaps seeking to avoid giving Yoon any space to blame Pyongyang for his decision. The North had only published short news articles on the event without adding the typical North Korean style criticism toward Yoon or South Korea, attempting to stay out of the South’s tumult.
North Korea carried out its first ballistic missile launch in two months as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was meeting with his South Korean counterpart, Cho Tae-yul, in Seoul, the capital of South Korea. Although there have been concerns that Yoon’s undemocratic movement caused damage to the South Korea-U.S. relationship, Blinken and Cho confirmed the strength of the alliance during the meeting.
Blinken reiterated Washington’s stance on the current political chaos happening in South Korea by appreciating the South’s democratic resilience and the South Koreans’ firm stance to protect democracy, while Cho pledged to strengthen the alliance with the U.S. under the acting presidency of Choi Sang-mok, who is also the finance minister of South Korea. Blinken also met Choi and Woo Won-shik, speaker of the National Assembly, on Monday.
According to Blinken, the United States has credible evidence showing Russia’s interest in providing critical technology assistance on reconnaissance satellites to North Korea. If so, it could be Moscow’s way to repaying Pyongyang for its supplies of ammunition and the deployment of its military personnel to the battleground in Ukraine. North Korea might also have received economic assistance from Russia, considering its devastated economy under U.S. and U.N. sanctions.
In this context, the Biden administration has urged Seoul and Tokyo to enhance bilateral cooperation to cope with regional issues, including the rising power of China and nuclear threats posed by North Korea. However, as incoming U.S. President Donald Trump showed his interest in re-engaging in the deadlocked nuclear talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (although Kim has de facto ruled out the possibility of negotiating with Trump), Seoul will likely revise its policy on North Korea to secure its seat in any future negotiations between Trump and Kim.
Some experts say the North’s missile test is Pyongyang’s strategic move to make the second Trump administration engage in dialogue with them. However, we should resist the temptation to see a specific diplomatic signal behind every missile test. The suspected hypersonic missile launch on Monday may have just been a rehearsal to increase the North’s military readiness and capability.