On December 22, 2024, a violent clash between Jamaat-e-Islami and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in Gaibandha district left at least 10 people injured. In the wake of Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and the disarray of the Awami League, Bangladesh finds itself at a historic crossroads. The departure of one of the country’s most authoritarian leaders presents a rare opportunity to rebuild its political system and embark on the path of liberal democracy. However, Bangladesh’s entrenched political culture, rooted in decades of illiberal democracy, violence, and bad governance, casts a long shadow over this prospect. A clash among the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the newly emerging political platform led by revolutionary students seems inevitable, threatening to push the nation back into the familiar cycle of instability and autocracy.
Since the restoration of democracy in 1990, Bangladesh’s political system has functioned as a façade of democratic participation. For most citizens, democracy has been limited to the single act of casting their vote on election day, with little to no power in shaping governance thereafter. Political parties have used street-level muscle power to dominate the political arena, while governance has been reduced to a tool for consolidating power and controlling resources.
Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL) took these tendencies to unprecedented heights, concentrating power in her hands and transforming Bangladesh from an illiberal democracy into a full-fledged authoritarian state. Under her regime, institutional independence eroded, opposition voices were systematically suppressed, and the country’s resources were controlled by a tightly knit elite aligned with the ruling party.
The student-led July Revolution of 2024, which forced Hasina to step down, marked a dramatic turning point. While the AL remains in disarray, its future uncertain as it grapples with the label of a “mass-killing regime” due to atrocities committed under Hasina’s leadership, the post-Hasina era presents its own set of challenges. The interim government, though ostensibly neutral, faces mounting pressure from the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the revolutionary student platform, each vying for influence in the emerging political landscape.
The BNP, as the main opposition party, has undoubtedly gained momentum in the aftermath of Hasina’s departure. It is reasonable to believe that if free and fair elections had been held in 2014, the BNP could have emerged victorious. This perception, coupled with the current public discontent with the AL, has emboldened the BNP to push the interim government for immediate elections. The party’s confidence is further bolstered by widespread support, suggesting that it could win an election if held today. However, the BNP’s past governance failures and its association with corruption and extortion remain significant challenges that it must address to rebuild public trust and establish itself as a credible force for change.
Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest Islamist party in Bangladesh, has also experienced a resurgence. Long marginalized and persecuted under Hasina’s regime, Jamaat has leveraged its organizational strength and its positive role in the July Revolution to regain political relevance. The party’s resilience in the face of adversity has won it renewed respect among certain segments of the population. Yet, Jamaat faces significant challenges in overcoming its polarizing past, particularly its controversial role during the 1971 Liberation War. While Jamaat has managed to position itself as a legitimate political force, its critics – both within the BNP and among the civil society – continue to view it with suspicion. For Jamaat, redefining its identity and expanding its appeal will be critical to its survival and success in the new political order.
The students who led the July Revolution are another emerging force in Bangladesh’s political arena. Their movement, driven by a desire to break away from the corrupt and nepotistic practices of traditional political elites, seeks to address systemic issues such as meritocracy and the concentration of power. The students are in the process of forming a new political platform, which could potentially disrupt the entrenched two-party system and bring fresh ideas to Bangladesh’s political discourse. However, their nascent movement faces numerous obstacles, including internal divisions, a lack of political experience, and the challenge of navigating a polarized and often violent political environment. Established parties have already begun defaming the interim government which could further complicate its efforts to establish itself as a credible alternative.
Despite the major shifts since the summer of 2024, Bangladesh’s political culture remains deeply polarized. While polarization is a natural feature of democratic politics, in Bangladesh, it often escalates into street-level violence and coercion. The BNP, Jamaat, and the revolutionary student platform have already begun trading accusations, deepening divisions among their supporters. The BNP’s intelligentsia has labeled Jamaat and the Awami League as “mass killers” responsible for the atrocities of 1971 and the violence of 2024 respectively. Jamaat’s intellectuals, in turn, accuse the BNP of extortion and opportunism. Meanwhile, student leaders blame the established parties for undermining the interim government and obstructing reform efforts. This cycle of defamation and blame threatens to derail the fragile progress made in the wake of Hasina’s resignation.
The root of Bangladesh’s political malaise lies in its deeply flawed system, which prioritizes political loyalty over merit. Positions of power – from university vice chancellors to chief justices – are always awarded based on political affiliations rather than competence. This patronage system perpetuates corruption, inefficiency, and public distrust, preventing the country from realizing its democratic potential. Unless access to resources and opportunities is systematized and based on merit, Bangladeshis will never experience the true essence of democracy.
To break free from this cycle, Bangladesh needs radical constitutional and systemic reforms. The depoliticization of institutions is essential, with appointments in universities, the judiciary, and the civil service made on the basis of merit and competition rather than political allegiance. Electoral reforms are also crucial, including the establishment of an independent election commission and mechanisms to prevent voter intimidation and fraud. Decentralizing power to empower local governments would reduce the concentration of authority in the hands of a few individuals or parties. Strengthening civil society and encouraging non-partisan organizations to promote accountability and transparency would further bolster democratic governance. Additionally, addressing past atrocities through a transparent and inclusive process of transitional justice would help heal the nation’s divisions.
The inclusion of young leaders and movements in governance and policymaking is another critical step. The students who led the July Revolution represent a new generation of Bangladeshis who are eager to challenge the status quo. Providing them with platforms to participate in the political process would not only diversify the country’s leadership but also bring fresh perspectives to its governance.
Bangladesh stands at a critical juncture. The fall of Sheikh Hasina and the disarray of the Awami League offer a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform the nation’s political system. However, the rising tensions among the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the revolutionary student platform threaten to plunge the country back into chaos. Without radical reforms to the constitution and governance structures, Bangladesh risks repeating its history of illiberal democracy and authoritarianism.
The interim government, political parties, and civil society must rise to the occasion and prioritize the long-term interests of the nation over short-term power struggles. The dream of a liberal democracy in Bangladesh will only be realized if all stakeholders commit to systemic reform and work together to chart a new course for the country. Time is of the essence, and the choices made in this critical moment will shape the future of Bangladesh for generations to come.