The recent threats posed by China, Russia, and North Korea have acted as a catalyst for the United States and its Pacific partners to reassess their defense priorities. For the second half of the 20th century into the 2000s, Japan enjoyed exclusive protection from the U.S., allowing it to focus on economic development. Following 9/11, U.S. foreign policy and defense priorities were focused on the Middle East in line with President George W. Bush’s War on Terror. However, recent Chinese provocations across the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have required the United States and Japan to dust off old geopolitical frameworks for the Pacific not seen since World War II.
The remilitarization of Japan, which recently developed fixed-wing aircraft carriers for the first time since World War II, and the United States’ growing presence in the Pacific – constructing four new bases in the Philippines and engaging in technology exchanges with Australia – constitute the development of a new grand strategy built atop Cold War-era alliances and WWII-era maritime operations. However, Japanese and U.S. authorities find themselves conducting a balancing act between shifting defense priorities, local political dynamics in Okinawa, and new logistical concerns in the U.S. Pacific territories of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.
Pivot to Asia 2.0
In 2011, then-U.S. President Barack Obama embarked on a new Pacific-oriented grand strategy often dubbed as the “Pivot to Asia.” Historians and analysts have often been critical of the policy, seeing it as one of the Obama administration’s largest strategic mistakes, as it diverted much-needed attention from ongoing operations in the Middle East and Europe. Obama’s sharp dismissal of U.S. Senator Mitt Romney’s warnings about impending threats from Russia in a 2012 presidential debate did not age well as the war in Ukraine enters its third year and conflict has erupted in Europe for the first time since World War II. Nevertheless, Obama was correct in identifying that the United States’ long-term strategic priorities lie in the Indo-Pacific, but his policy was perhaps ahead of its time.
“More Horses, More Bayonets” – China’s Expanding Navy
As part of Romney’s warnings about Russia, the then-Utah Governor also voiced concern over the U.S. Navy’s shrinking number of vessels. Obama retorted, “We also have fewer horses and bayonets,” citing the military’s technological advancements as justification for fewer ships. However, with two aircraft carriers and a third set to commission in the coming year, China’s navy has significantly more “horses and bayonets” than in 2012, some of which are AI-powered and have hypersonic capabilities.
The technological and economic development of China in 2024-2025 also stands in stark contrast to that of the early 2010s. China’s defense spending has likewise expanded dramatically, from approximately $90 billion in 2011 to over $230 billion in 2024. In addition to acquiring ever-more naval capabilities, China has also embarked on a decade-long campaign of building up and militarizing artificial islands in the South China Sea.
China’s provocations against Taiwan also increased, reaching a breaking point when former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022. The People’s Liberation Army Navy’s ability to project power around the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea has broadened significantly. The PLAN had 370 ships afloat as of late 2024, numerically making it the world’s largest navy. The growth of China’s navy, and the resulting consolidation of its position in the Western Pacific, shows no signs of slowing.
In response, the U.S. and Japan are arranging a new Pacific deterrent network built on the relics of World War II and Cold War-era frameworks. That Japan’s two flagship carriers, the Izumo and the Kaga, are named after WWII-era vessels epitomizes this return to the past. Front and center to this Japan-U.S. strategy is the reorganization of military installments in Okinawa, though local political opposition has stood as an obstacle.
Resizing the Military Footprint on Okinawa
Okinawa has played an essential role for U.S. military operations in the Pacific since the end of World War II. U.S. dominance of the island also holds symbolism in the history of Japan-U.S. relations, with Okinawa being the site of the largest land battle fought in the Pacific.
The presence of large numbers of U.S. troops in Okinawa has also acted as a point of tension with local communities. The proposed construction of a new base in Henoko in northern Okinawa has been widely unpopular, with over 70 percent of Okinawan residents voting against its construction in a 2019 referendum, citing ecological ramifications.
In 2012, Tokyo and Washington agreed to relocate 9,000 U.S. marines from Okinawa to Guam and Hawai‘i. This movement of U.S. troops to the Second Island Chain does not represent a retreat or defensive posture, but is rather evidence of a Japanese government that will fill the gap with its own forces and a new missile defense base on Ishigaki island near Taiwan. An expanded Japanese Self Defense Force (SDF) presence in Okinawa and the Nansei Islands is ultimately the legacy of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s agenda of constitutional reform to broaden the scope of Japan’s armed forces.
However, this process will not be seamless. Ishigaki residents staged a protest during the opening of the base, indicating that the militarization of Okinawa will inevitably entail political pushback, whether the troops involved are American or Japanese. Nevertheless, Okinawa plays a vital role for both U.S. and Japanese defense operations due to its proximity to Taiwan and China.
Thousands of New Marines, a Strained Power Infrastructure, and a Housing Shortage in Guam
Guam, the United States’ westernmost territory, is a central axis point for the U.S. presence in the Pacific. U.S. Marines started relocating to Guam from Okinawa in December 2024, and with thousands more expected to arrive in the coming years Guam is faced with a new set of generational logistical challenges.
Outside of the context of Guam’s increasingly important role to U.S. Pacific operations, the island has been suffering from a housing shortage for its residents. Guam is expected to have demand for nearly 10,000 additional housing units in 2025. Due to Guam’s remote location in the Pacific, construction costs on the island are famously high. With limited housing availability on bases, concerns have been raised that many of the relocated Marines will ultimately live off base, impacting the local housing market.
In addition, the island’s power supply, which is primarily provided by the Guam Power Authority, is widely reported as unstable, with military bases consuming 20 percent of the electricity generated. Furthermore, the construction of a new hospital that is set to commence in 2025 is a new burden on the government’s infrastructure budget, let alone the power grid.
The federal government allotted $2.23 billion to military construction projects in Guam as part of the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, which is expected to provide 178 new units inside Guam’s Anderson Air Force Base. Yet a Guam-based think tank claimed that even with this new housing, there will be a shortage of 1,750 units by 2028.
Tinian: The New U.S. Pacific Air Fortress
Throughout 2024, teams of U.S. Air Force engineers have been clearing through thousands of acres of jungle on the northern side of Tinian, a remote island in the United States’ Pacific territories in the Marianas. These engineers are uncovering the runways of the busiest U.S. airfield during World War II, which has been abandoned since 1946.
What was once an airbase that housed over 40,000 U.S. troops during the war is ironically being resurrected in a new era, albeit for an ironically different purpose. Rather than to serve as the United States’ primary air base to launch assaults on Japan, Tinian’s North Field will expand the capacity of Guam’s Anderson Air Force Base and help defend Japan and Taiwan from impending Chinese incursions. Tinian is seen by Washington as the most evident and feasible solution to long-term logistical concerns in Guam.
The redevelopment of Tinian as a nearby counterpart to Guam’s Anderson Air Force Base does more than just expand Guam’s capacity; it provides a holistic solution to housing and power shortages on Guam. Tinian was home to just over 2,000 people in 2020, making most of the island scarcely populated. While expanding the military’s operations on Tinian will prove to be a complex and costly undertaking, it is a project that mostly averts interfering with the lives of civilians on Guam or Okinawa and reduces the political burden on U.S. and Japanese authorities.