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Will Expo 2025 in Osaka Be a Success?

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Tokyo Report | Diplomacy | East Asia

Will Expo 2025 in Osaka Be a Success?

Despite a host of setbacks, Expo 2025 in Osaka is set to open on time April.

Will Expo 2025 in Osaka Be a Success?
Credit: ID 308778451 © Mirko Kuzmanovic | Dreamstime.com

This year will be an important one for Osaka: Japan’s second city will host the World Expo, which is set to open for six months on April 13. It is no secret that the Expo has faced challenges thus far: delays in construction due to the COVID-19 pandemic, inflationary pressures resulting in cost increases of raw materials leading to a near-doubling of the event’s budget, and sluggish tickets sales have contributed to a slew of bad press in the lead-up. These compounding issues also help explain the lack of enthusiasm within Japan. A recent survey outlined that only about 35 percent of Japanese people asked were intending to go to the World Expo, below the 55 percent targeted by the event’s organizers. 

Osaka has hosted the Expo twice before, in 1970 and 1990, with the 1970 affair in particular occupying a special place in many local residents’ hearts, as it served to showcase the return of an economically powerful Japan to the world during the country’s post-war boom. That Expo attracted over 64 million visitors, a number that the 2025 edition will almost certainly fail to match. The organizers are aiming for just over 28 million visitors.

Despite these struggles, Expo 2025 still has the potential to produce tangible regional and national benefits. First, the worst-case scenario, a delay, has been avoided. The construction of the Expo has progressed and will be completed on time. The recent opening of the Yumeshima subway stop, which connects the city center to the artificial island that serves as the Expo’s grounds, was an important symbolic step underscoring Osaka’s readiness. Japan’s ongoing tourism boom has benefitted Osaka as well, which has seen record numbers of tourists throughout 2024. This will most likely continue in 2025, increasing the potential for foreign visitors even if the Expo is not their primary reason for visiting.

However, the real potential lies beyond merely focusing on visitor numbers. The two areas that will truly determine whether the Expo is successful are: connecting the Expo with regional economic growth initiatives and so-called “Expo diplomacy.” Indeed, what has often been missing in the coverage of the Expo thus far is the numerous diplomatic, economic and academic engagements that such an event attracts, and whether these will translate into tangible initiatives moving forward.

Beginning with the first point, Osaka is seemingly well positioned to take advantage economically from the Expo. Due in part to significant investments into local infrastructure and a post-pandemic bounce, the prefecture has seen strong growth in recent years, posting a nominal growth rate of 3.7 percent in 2001 and 4.1 percent in 2022.

The event itself will also likely be a net benefit to the regional economy, further contributing to growth. As Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura outlined at a recent press conference for foreign media (which the author attended), regional governments spent a combined 130 billion yen on the event, with the central government pitching in a similar amount. 

“We expect the economic benefits to be around 3 trillion yen,” Yoshimura said. “So from an economic standpoint, if the Expo is held as planned, it will be a success. However, the Expo is not designed to be purely for profit. We will judge its success by the technological progress that is achieved, and whether this can lead to innovation that will play a role in solving our society’s shared challenges.”

The governor is most likely hoping that some of this innovation will take place in Osaka, so that the Expo’s legacy will be greater than a mere temporary economic boon. Indeed, the potential for the Expo to facilitate technological cooperation that leads to local investment is not to be overlooked. To that end, the prefecture has recently unveiled a slew of measures to attract foreign business to coincide with the Expo, including English-language support, free temporary office space, networking events, and an incentive scheme to eliminate corporate inhabitant tax and corporate enterprise tax for up to 10 years available to foreign companies – the first scheme of its kind in Japan.

Beyond the Expo, there are also numerous infrastructure projects that have opened over the last year. These include Umekita Park, a massive public-private mixed-use urban redevelopment north of Osaka Station, and Nakanoshima Qross, a life science facility hosting medical companies, a start-up incubator, and a hospital, which aims to foster collaborative research initiatives. Osaka’s prefectural and municipal governments have timed these investments to aim for a synergetic effect together with the presence of foreign companies and researchers at the Expo, focusing on certain regional strengths – Yoshimura mentioned life sciences and entertainment specifically – as possible avenues of growth. Time will tell if these measures are enough to leverage the Expo’s momentum into lasting foreign investment, but the blueprint for success is present.

The second potential of the Expo is diplomatic. The first and most obvious consideration is related to public diplomacy, as Japan will want to present its economic, technological, and cultural strengths to a global audience. Secondly, it is well known that the World Expo is the only global mega-event to have a formal diplomatic component, and over 160 countries and a slew of international organizations have confirmed their participation. This component manifests itself through public-facing meetings of high-level leaders, but also the hundreds of lower-level meetings held by diplomats and other public and private stakeholders. Amid the current retreat of multilateralism, Japan – arguably one of the greatest benefactors of the so-called rules-based international order – will want to use “Expo diplomacy” to reinforce its image as a democracy that is still committed to international cooperation at all levels.

The rumored visit by U.S. President Donald Trump will of course be the most important ticket on the diplomatic agenda if it happens, and Japan will hope for a conciliatory tone similar to the recent Ishiba-Trump summit in Washington, D.C. From Japan’s perspective, the greatest potential risk is an off-the-cuff remark or announcement by Trump that galvanizes media attention away from the primary themes Japan is hoping to highlight. 

Another major aim for Japan will probably be the advancement of regional initiatives. Given the Expo’s focus on technological innovation, further deepening economic cooperation with ASEAN countries – whether through official development assistance, official security assistance, or private sector cooperation –should be a high priority. The Expo also has potential to further advance the recent rapprochement with China undertaken by the Ishiba administration, as areas of common interest such as tackling climate change overlap with the themes of the event.

Overall, despite the seemingly endless negative headlines, Osaka’s third foray into hosting an Expo can still turn into a success. Thus, 2025 has the potential to be a big year for Osaka and Japan, although it will most likely take until 2026 and beyond to truly gauge the Expo’s legacy.

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