U.S. President Donald Trump has again reiterated that he will seek momentum to engage in dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
In the joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru on February 7 in Washington, D.C. Trump recalled the aggravated tensions on the Korean Peninsula when he took office in 2017, saying he “stopped a war.” Trump famously became the first sitting U.S. president to meet with the North Korean leader in 2018
Trump and Ishiba reaffirmed Washington’s unchanged policy on North Korea, with their joint statement reiterating “serious concerns” over North Korea’s “nuclear and missile programs” and “their resolute commitment to the complete denuclearization of the DPRK,” a reference to North Korea’s formal name (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea). At the same time, the U.S. president again showed his intention to sit down with Kim should the conditions be met.
“We will have relations with North Korea and Kim Jong Un,” Trump said in the joint press conference with Ishiba.
Since he defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. 2024 presidential election, many pundits have argued that Trump may seek to reopen negotiations with North Korea, regardless of the strengthened ties between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Such analyses have consolidated following Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Trump’s recent references to North Korea as a nuclear power – a surprising move considering Washington’s deep-rooted refusal to admit North Korea’s nuclear capabilities over the past decades.
Trump and Hegseth’s remarks sparked another wave of speculation on the possibility of Washington approaching Pyongyang to renew the deadlocked nuclear talks under a new strategy. However, the Trump administration does not appear to have recalibrated its policy on North Korea yet. “The complete denuclearization” of North Korea is still the goal shared by the United States and its two key allies, Japan and South Korea, as expressed in the latest Japan-U.S. joint statement.
Trump and Ishiba also confirmed the importance of the Japan-South Korea-U.S. trilateral relationship as a means to deter North Korea’s growing nuclear threats and uphold “regional peace and prosperity.”
If the Trump administration does not change the United States’ conventional approach to North Korea, Kim will not accept any offers of dialogue. He still views the South Korea-U.S. joint military drills and the U.S.-led military coalition in the region as hostile actions against the security of his country.
In this context, Trump may again consider temporarily halting the joint military drills between the United States and South Korea to create space for Pyongyang to respond to his diplomatic overtures. In the eyes of hawkish conservatives in South Korea, the joint military drills between the two countries should never be compromised, but Trump and then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in previously halted the drills when they were negotiating with Kim in 2018 and 2019. Such moves worked to induce Kim to appear in a series of summit meetings with Moon and Trump – even though neither leader ultimately succeeded in getting Kim to take steps for the complete denuclearization of North Korea.
Today, the security environment has significantly changed in the region due to the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. As Kim seems to have received economic aid and support from Moscow in return for his supplies of ammunition and deployment of his soldiers to Russia, he may not feel any urgency to negotiate with Trump at present. Russia, one of the five permanent members in the United Nations Security Council, is also providing cover for Kim, preventing the passage of new sanctions or even effective enforcement of existing measures.
With that in mind, the main precondition for renewing the stalled nuclear talks with North Korea is ending the years-long Russia-Ukraine War so as to temporarily weaken the military coalition between Russia and North Korea. Beyond the oft-tried tactic of pressuring China to use its leverage on North Korea, the second Trump administration will likely need to devise an updated policy centered on peace and dialogue on North Korea. That means Trump should drop any hope for a “big deal.” As U.S. experts have repeatedly said, the North Korean leader will never give up his nuclear weapons.
Despite Kim’s clear intention not to use his nuclear weapons as a negotiating card, he may again consider dismantling or neutralizing his country’s Yongbyon nuclear complex in return for lifting some key sanctions that significantly affect his country’s economy.
If Washington is ready to resolve the security conflicts on the Korean Peninsula caused by the North’s growing nuclear arsenal through a long-term effort, backed by bipartisan support, Kim may again be interested in directly negotiating with Trump.
As complicated scenarios lie ahead, South Korea is experiencing a leadership vacuum caused by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s illegitimate declaration of martial law. Yoon was impeached by the National Assembly on December 14 and is waiting for the verdict of the Constitutional Court over his impeachment case. Just like at the beginning of his first term, Trump is again coordinating regional issues with an “interim” leader of South Korea (Choi Sang-mok at this moment). With only an acting president, Seoul has little diplomatic leverage.
The South’s Constitutional Court is conducting the trial over Yoon’s impeachment case. If the court upholds the impeachment, the country will hold a special presidential election within 60 days after the verdict.