As conflict escalates in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, the plight of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh remains as dire as ever.
Recent developments – including the Arakan Army’s decision to ban the term “Rohingya” in areas under its control, dwindling food aid for refugees in Bangladesh, and shifting geopolitical stances – are shaping the future of one of the world’s most persecuted communities.
Amidst all this uncertainty, the only ray of hope is U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres’ ongoing visit to Bangladesh, where he is touring Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar alongside Bangladesh’s interim government’s chief adviser, Dr. Muhammad Yunus.
“Guterres and Professor Muhammad Yunus’ visit will create headlines that will draw the attention of global leaders and motivate them to act,” commented Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition – an umbrella organization for Rohingya refugees, their leading spokespersons, and international supporters – in an exclusive interview with The Diplomat.
“I think this visit will at least help raise funds to restore WFP funding,” he said, referring to the World Food Program’s (WFP) recent decision to cut monthly food vouchers from $12.50 to $6 per person for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh due to “severe funding shortfalls.”
Unless the WFP reverses this decision, it may lead to “severe consequences, including increased malnutrition, deteriorating health, and greater vulnerability to exploitation. With over a million Rohingya dependent on aid, this reduction threatens their survival and worsens the humanitarian crisis,” Lwin said.
Reports from humanitarian organizations also indicate that the situation on the ground could deteriorate rapidly, fueling fears of long-term health crises and social instability.
As desperate families face the prospect of starvation, the potential for exploitation by criminal networks and the growth of informal, unregulated economies increase, further complicating the efforts of aid agencies.
However, when it comes to the Rohingya repatriation issue, Lwin believes that progress will depend more on Myanmar than outside forces.
Within Myanmar, things are not looking promising for the Rohingya at the moment.
Recently, in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, the long-standing persecution of the Rohingya has worsened with the Arakan Army (AA) banning the term “Rohingya.”
Lwin believes this move is not an isolated incident but part of a broader pattern of exclusionary policies that have, over decades, denied the community both recognition and rights.
“The Arakan Army’s ban on ‘Rohingya’ denies their identity and rights in Arakan, aligning with Myanmar’s nationalist narrative to appease Buddhist sentiments and enhance the AA’s influence. This weakens Rohingya claims to their homeland, hinders repatriation efforts, and erases their identity from official narratives, obstructing their reclamation of rights in Arakan,” Lwin said.
Even now, many Rohingya people continue to enter Bangladesh illegally from conflict-hit Rakhine, paying boatmen and brokers on both sides of the border.
“This reflects the escalating conflict in Arakan and their desperation for safety,” Lwin observed. “With no viable alternatives, they depend on smugglers, risking exploitation. This underscores the urgent need for a sustainable solution, including international pressure on the Myanmar regime and the Arakan Army.”
Amid such a grave situation, Lwin advocates for a sustainable solution for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, rather than relying solely on foreign aid. He argues that this can only be achieved by empowering the Rohingya people in Bangladesh.
“To empower Rohingya in Bangladesh to secure employment, the [Bangladesh] government and international organizations must issue work permits for Rohingya refugees in sectors like agriculture, fisheries, and manufacturing,” Lwin advised.
“They should establish vocational training programs to enhance their skills, support small businesses, and encourage entrepreneurship within refugee camps. Promoting private sector involvement to create job opportunities with fair wages and protections is also crucial.”
That said, Lwin acknowledges that due to the recent deterioration of law and order in Bangladesh, authorities are more likely to restrict Rohingya from working outside camps due to security concerns, political factors, and local opposition.
“However, regulated job opportunities may be allowed within the camps or specific controlled sectors,” he noted.
Lwin also addressed the prevalent fear among Bangladeshi citizens that the Rohingya will settle permanently in Bangladesh, rather than returning to Myanmar once they feel safe.
“Such concerns stem from fears of prolonged refugee stays and uncertain repatriation plans. The government could alleviate these fears by ensuring transparent, safe, and voluntary repatriation processes, collaborating with international organizations for support, and affirming the Rohingya’s right to return to Myanmar.”
With Yunus – an esteemed figure in the West – now in power in Bangladesh, Lwin believes this may be a good time to reform Bangladesh’s policies concerning Rohingya refugees.
“By signing the 1951 Refugee Convention and granting rights to the victims of Myanmar’s genocide, substantial progress can be made in resolving the Rohingya crisis. As a neighboring nation to Arakan State, Bangladesh is well-positioned to exert influence over the perpetrators and assist in the repatriation of Rohingya survivors to their homeland,” he explained.
However, while Yunus is seeking international support, Lwin noted that regressive decisions by the United States are worsening conditions for refugees.
According to Lwin, apart from reinstating funds for the Rohingya refugees, the U.S. must advocate for a unified international response that ensures safe repatriation, humanitarian assistance, and peacebuilding initiatives.
He also called on neighboring nations like India and China to support diplomatic solutions and repatriation efforts. Otherwise, “the Rohingya crisis could heighten tensions over refugee movements in South and Southeast Asia.”
In the end, he urged U.N. agencies “to continue providing effective humanitarian aid, while the ICC and ICJ should hold Myanmar accountable for genocide.”