There has been a little time to digest the summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, the first of its kind, bringing together all five Central Asian heads of state and the two presidents of the European Union on April 4. The participants may still be literally digesting the rack of lamb and Fergana plov served at the closing dinner. This took so long to get through that the media was kept waiting for nearly an hour before the Europeans’ final press conference – a reflection, perhaps, of Uzbek hospitality, described as “outstanding” by the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
The gushing praise capped a successful week for her host, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
Just days before the summit, he was widely credited for being the driving force behind an historic trilateral agreement between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The accord, signed in the Tajik city of Khujand on March 31, saw the mutual recognition of their respective borders, a diplomatic breakthrough three-decades in the making, and one that symbolized the region’s growing appetite for resolving its own problems, on its own terms.
Set against this backdrop of budding regional coordination, the Brussels delegation arrived seeking new partnerships. With Europe’s own regional order being rocked by Moscow and Washington, and Central Asian states exploring ways to reduce their reliance on Russia and China, the timing could hardly have been more apt.
European Commission President Ursula von eer Leyen and President of the European Council Antonio Costa take questions from the press in Samarkand. Credit: Joe Luc Barnes
Grim Mood Music
A phalanx of black Humvees, red police berets, and security men in mirrored shades guarded the approach to Samarkand’s Congress Center, set in luxurious desolation on the edge of a rowing lake to the east of the ancient city.
The forbidding atmosphere was accompanied by economic storm clouds. On the morning of the summit’s first day, von der Leyen delivered a sharp rebuke of new U.S. tariffs announced by the Trump administration, policies that she warned would have “dire consequences” for millions.
Yet these wider geopolitical currents have, in many ways, cleared Europe’s path to Central Asia. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coupled with a more transactional U.S. foreign policy, has forced Europe to rethink its energy and transport dependencies.
“It seems the EU is now racing to catch up after years of under-engagement, recognizing Central Asia’s strategic role in emerging global supply chains and connectivity,” said Oybek Shaykhov, secretary-general of the Europe-Uzbekistan Association for Economic Cooperation. “As the world shifts from globalization to regionalization, the strengthening of EU–Central Asia cooperation is a welcome and timely development for both regions.”
A Region Coalescing
Von der Leyen was keen to stress that Europe saw the five Central Asian states as “proud, sovereign nations,” perhaps seeing in the region a glimmer of the EU’s self-image.
The region’s political architecture, once defined by the fractious Soviet legacy, is gradually shifting toward something more cohesive. Mirziyoyev’s regime in Uzbekistan has adopted a more pragmatic, outward-facing foreign policy that has helped thaw long-frozen regional relations.
The agreement in Khujand, promising to draw a line under tensions in the historically volatile Fergana Valley, was achieved without any external mediation, a role historically performed by Russia, which has military bases in both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
“It was a demonstration that these countries can find common language themselves without the involvement of any outside powers. There was nobody parenting them, no ‘adults’ stepping in,” said Dr. Rashid Gabdulhakov, assistant professor at the University of Groningen.
Other initiatives such as newly opened flight routes between regional capitals, such as Bishkek-Dushanbe, as well as the prospect of a single Central Asian tourist visa, are further examples of this promise.
That said, the shift toward cooperation is still nascent. The five countries belong to a patchwork of overlapping blocs: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are tied into the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), while Tajikistan and Turkmenistan sit outside the Organization of Turkic States and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, respectively. There remains no institutional body to represent Central Asia as a single political actor, and the summit’s prelude, a full day of closed-door bilateral meetings on April 3, spoke volumes.
“We have seen declarations of eternal friendship signed in the past as well, followed by hatred and conflict,” said Gabdulhakov, adding that even in the past few months Kazakhstan imposed export restrictions that saw thousands of tons of potatoes rotting at its border with Uzbekistan.
And while Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan might be proposing a shared visa program, the likelihood that traditionally hermetic states such as Turkmenistan will get on board with such an idea appear slim.
Nevertheless, there is room for optimism. “Maybe now that there is this reshuffling in the global arena, we are seeing an opportunity for these countries to come together to unite.” Gabdulhakov said.
Photo provided by conference organizers.
Russia’s Backyard, China’s Front Porch
Brussels is stepping into a region where Beijing and Moscow cast long shadows.
The EU and Central Asia have agreed to upgrade their relationship to the level of a Strategic Partnership. Details of the strategy were thin, but the headline was a 12 billion euro European investment package focusing on four key areas: transport; critical raw materials; water-energy-climate; and digital connectivity.
Three billion euros were earmarked for new transport infrastructure. There are high hopes for the Middle Corridor, a trade route that bypasses Russia, as an alternative for moving goods between Europe and Asia. Trade along the eye-of-a-needle route is growing, but fraught with bureaucratic hurdles as it passes through multiple borders and is often brought to a halt by high winds on the Caspian Sea.
The plan is to develop the Middle Corridor so that it can handle 10 million tons of goods a year by 2029. This figure sounds impressive, but it is decidedly modest compared to the 858 million tons of goods that arrived in European ports in the second quarter of 2024 alone. The northern land route, via Kazakh, Russian, and Belarusian railways (all united by the EAEU customs zone), also remains faster and more reliable, if politically fraught.
As for trade, Mirziyoyev’s address noted that overall trade volume between Central Asia and Europe has reached 54 billion euros ($60 billion). This compares unfavorably with China ($94.8 billion in 2024), and similarly to Russia ($44 billion in 2023, plus an estimated $15 billion in remittances). Moscow also retains immense soft power influence in the region, evidenced by the fact that every Central Asian leader addressed the summit in Russian.
Europe’s offer is not to replace either of these countries. Instead, Europe presented itself as a “reliable partner” to give Central Asia options, while also helping them develop jobs locally. In return, Europe seeks increased access to the region’s critical raw materials – resources vital for 21st century technologies such as renewable energy and AI – which Central Asia reportedly possesses in abundance.
“These raw materials are the lifeblood of the future global economy,” said von der Leyen. “Yet they are also a honeypot for global players. Some are only interested in exploiting and extracting. Europe’s offer is different. We also want to be your partners in developing your local industries. The added value has to be local.”
National Priorities
For Central Asian leaders, the summit was an opportunity to present a menu of national priorities. Kazakhstan, with its oil wealth and established European links, remains the regional leader in EU engagement, accounting for over 80 percent of trade turnover with Europe. Uzbekistan, however, has plans to rival them.
“Kazakhstan may have led in the past, but Uzbekistan is working hard to catch up,” said Shaykhov. This was demonstrated by Mirziyoyev’s visit to Paris in mid-March, which secured 6.5 billion euros in investment.
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan combined make up 76 percent of Central Asia’s GDP, 81 percent of its area, and 69 percent of its population. If Central Asia were to act as a region, then there are shades of the EU’s Franco-German motor in the set up. In Samarkand, the regional hierarchy was evident. Tokayev was the first Central Asian leader to speak after Mirziyoyev, and Kazakh and Uzbek media were the only ones selected to pose questions to the European leaders at the post-summit press conference.
But the other regional leaders were given the opportunity to make their own pitches. The mountainous states of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan both hawked their green energy potential, particularly in hydropower, while the gravely garbed Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov pledged to make the country’s Caspian port of Turkmenbashi available for the transport of goods to Europe.
Estonia’s ambassador to Kazakhstan, Jaap Ora, pointed to his country’s digital ID systems being exported to Kyrgyzstan and, soon, Turkmenistan as examples of European technical presence in the region, a sign of the potential for improved digital cooperation.
Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov addressed the summit. Credit: Joe Luc Barnes
A Measured Step Forward
Perhaps the summit’s significance lay not in any single agreement, but in the fact that it took place at all. The shadowy choreography of the event, with scant press access, reflects two regions testing their capacity to act collectively in a world where three overbearing superpowers tend to throw their weight around.
Awkward issues such as human rights and Central Asia’s role in Russian sanctions evasion were parked, at least in public. The EU, shaped by the urgencies of a fractured world, is adopting a more practical tone. The leaders have undertaken to meet again in two years’ time.
During a brief pause in the diplomatic proceedings on Thursday, Mirziyoyev took the European leaders to see Samarkand’s historic Registan square. The center of the Silk Road, which went into terminal decline after the Portuguese discovery of a sea route to India in 1498, seems to be emerging into the European imagination once more.