China 20th Party Congress

A year into the job as director of the top party-affiliated think tank, Jiang Jinquan is appearing more frequently to boldly champion Xi’s positions on ideology, party governance and unity.

Without any strong contender emerging to replace Yang Jiechi, the next director of the Office of Foreign Affairs could be cut from the Politburo, opening a slot for a different party position.

Han Jun’s elevation to Jilin governor puts this rural policy careerist in strong contention for one of four State Council vice premier positions in 2022.

Chen Gang will likely enter the Politburo in 2027. His experience governing technoindustrial clusters will be a valuable skill set for top governance positions through the 2020s.

Shen Yiqin, a party history expert and representative of the emerging Guizhou faction, is the leading female candidate for Politburo promotion in 2022.

A low flier on a newly established institutional trajectory toward ethnic affairs governance, Chen Run’er could replace the infamous Chen Quanguo at the 2022 CCP Congress.

Xinjiang Party Secretary Chen Quanguo will likely see a promotion at the 2022 Communist Party Congress, perhaps to vice premier.

The 20th Party Congress will mark the end of Zhao’s CCP career, but his internal affairs policy will continue.

Chen, the head of Xi’s rectification campaign, is likely to ascend through a restrengthened Politics and Legal Affairs Commission.

Liu Cigui’s promotion from Hainan party secretary effectively takes him out of the running for the ultimate prize: membership in the CCP Politburo.

China's elite politics is ultimately unpredictable, but the party cadre system remains the most resilient political institution.