China-Russia Relations

China’s top diplomat toured Europe to try to explain Beijing’s “neutral” position on the conflict – but topped it off with a visit to Russia. 

As the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion looms, China's positioning on the Ukraine war is coming under increased scrutiny.

Insights from Raymond Kuo.

Beijing is rejecting the G-7’s price caps on oil and potentially providing other important economic support for Moscow.

While the Putin-Xi friendship is important, it mostly oils the wheels of a relationship driven by longer-term structural trends.

There is little evidence that Beijing’s quasi-apology tour in Europe and other Western capitals will yield any significant concessions over Ukraine.

Beijing and Moscow are strengthening political, economic, and military ties, but the relationship is becoming ever more imbalanced in China’s favor.

A decade after Russia’s “Asia pivot,” Moscow is embroiled in a war in Europe. Where do Russia’s relationships in Asia now stand?

Neither Beijing nor Moscow is willing to incur costs for the other; that puts clear limits their strategic partnership.

Russia has aerospace technology China has long wanted to access, and Moscow is hurting for customers at present.

Anyone relying only on official pronouncements and the state media may have missed that Chinese public opinion is turning against Russia – and toward Ukraine – as the war drags on.

China’s position has subtly shifted since the Russian invasion began, but the partnership with Russia is too important for Beijing to truly abandon its ally.