Duterte VFA cancellation

The Philippine President-elect has indicated that he wants good relations with both the United States and China. Whether he can achieve it is another question.

Both nations have a strong incentive to maintain the pact, but next year's election could complicate matters.

It seems increasingly likely that the Visiting Forces Agreement will survive Duterte's term in office.

Despite President Duterte's much-vaunted "pivot to China," the nation's relationship with the U.S. remains as strong as ever.

China may have missed a golden opportunity to see the VFA end, but Beijing is still determined to exploit gaps between the U.S. and its ally.

Despite his best efforts, the Philippines’ president hasn’t been able to cut ties between the U.S. and the Philippine defense establishment.

While this is an important temporary reprieve for the alliance, it leaves some broader strategic challenges unresolved.

Will the reversal last?

With the unwinding of the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), the utility of Washington’s oldest alliance in the Indo-Pacific hangs in the balance.