Trump foreign policy

The manner in which the Trump administration has conducted itself toward Japan should serve as a warning to U.S. friends and foe alike: no one is safe.

Ironically, Trump’s approach to international relations is playing the game of his proclaimed main enemy: Xi Jinping’s China.

The U.S. cannot sustain its influence or meet its objectives in the Indo-Pacific with only hard power or material inducements to other states.

Whatever the U.S. intentions, the outcome of the Russia-U.S. dialogue would be beneficial for China.

Thus far, Australian leaders seem unable to address the implications of the fact that U.S. values and interests may in fact no longer be congruent with Australia’s own.

The Trump administration is no longer demonstrating concern with its own purported human rights priorities, and Thailand knows it.

Contrary to Beijing’s expectations, China seemed to have been let off easy in the early days of the Trump 2.0 presidency. Will that last?

Decision-makers in Beijing expect that Trump’s brutal pressure will bring Europe closer to China and, on the face of it, this would make sense. But a full-fledged détente between the EU and China is unlikely. 

Amid a near-complete reversal in U.S. foreign policy, more nations may look to China to fill the role that the United States once played – an unthinkable prospect just a few months ago. 

The administration’s approach to competition with China, and to global engagement more broadly, could unwittingly facilitate the extension of Beijing’s influence.

The new U.S. president’s remarkable but often untested initiatives add to already complex regional dynamics, hampering viable strategies and policy options seeking stable regional order.

Trump’s regional policy is likely to focus on U.S. military engagement to counter China. The Philippines thus may become a linchpin in U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific.