U.S.-China conflict

The Battle of Leyte Gulf holds important lessons for a hypothetical China-U.S. naval clash – and Chinese strategists know it.

While the situations are not identical, the tactical and geopolitical parallels make the Falklands War worth studying in the Taiwan context.

A China-U.S. maritime conflict would heavily impact Southeast Asia – including in the cyber domain.

A persistent commitment to hedging in South and Southeast Asia raises concerns about U.S. force projection into the region during a potential conflict with China. 

China’s approach to deterrence involves compelling as well as dissuading, and is intertwined with the idea of “war control.”

In the future, China may incorporate nuclear weapons into its framework of political threats, intimidation, and even the use of force to achieve its international goals.

Indonesia could unwittingly be drawn into great-power military conflict due to its strategic location, especially if a China-U.S. clash happens in Indonesian waters.

Insights from Miranda Priebe 

A direct China-U.S. conflict would cause hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars’ worth of economic damage through business disruptions alone.

12 months of Western operations in Ukraine could hold valuable lessons for Chinese security interests in North Korea. 

Insights from Mark Cancian.

Success depends on decreasing the perceived likelihood that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would succeed, minimizing the perceived benefits, and increasing the expected costs. 

China's new diplomatic “countermeasures” to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan strike at the Biden administration's priority areas for the relationship.

Rethinking “strategic ambiguity” is important, but in the meantime Washington must compensate for its dwindling military advantage over China with more costly signals of political resolve.

Most of U.S. assets and allies in the Asia-Pacific are maritime-based. History suggests that won’t be enough to overcome China’s continental advantage.

Insights from Timothy Heath.

Circumstantial evidence suggests China might consider using its growing inventory of intercontinental ballistic missiles in a conventional strike role.

Don’t be distracted by the aerial incursions and naval build-ups – the real action is China’s nuclear build-up, in the hopes of deterring any U.S. intervention in a regional conflict.

China-U.S. competition could actually be a net good for the world – if the middle powers can steer it in the right direction.

U.S. businesses need to consider the impact of a physical conflict on their Chinese production and distribution bases.

A fictional war scenario showcases how emerging technological capabilities could be used in a future Sino-U.S. military confrontation over Taiwan.

How governments imagine the future – including the future of war – shapes their responses and planning in the present.

How will changes in military technology bear on a potential near-future U.S.-China conflict?

Xi Jinping extolled China's victory in the War to Resist American Aggression -- and sent a very clear warning to the U.S.