U.S. Taiwan policy

The narrative is part of a larger disinformation campaign designed to undermine Taiwan-U.S. relations.

Trump’s return to the White House, along with his hawkish advisers, will have Beijing expecting a conflict – and acting accordingly.

Insights from Elizabeth Freund Larus.

The Republican candidate has needled Taipei about its reliance on the United States, but Taiwan can still count on U.S. support if Trump returns to the White House.

“Perhaps more so than in other countries given its unique political status, Taiwan’s voters attach greater significance to foreign policy and more precisely relations with the United States and China.”

China is not just managing tensions but setting the stage to influence the next U.S. administration and push its long-term ambitions forward.

A range of intertwined international and domestic factors are driving Washington’s current policy toward the Taiwan Strait. 

While parallels are often overdone, the infamous attempt to appease Nazi Germany does hold lessons for contemporary China-U.S. relations.

Regardless of who wins in January 2024, we can expect continuity in U.S. policy toward Taiwan and China.

The rush to find a China-U.S. modus vivendi on Taiwan often involves intentionally overlooking the unequal nature of “provocations.” 

Divergent interpretations of the status quo can coexist during peacetime. But with tensions rising, it's getting tricky to keep the balance.