U.S. Taiwan policy

Updates to a State Department factsheet on Taiwan could indicate a tactical adjustment or a strategic shift. 

The narrative is part of a larger disinformation campaign designed to undermine Taiwan-U.S. relations.

Trump’s return to the White House, along with his hawkish advisers, will have Beijing expecting a conflict – and acting accordingly.

Insights from Elizabeth Freund Larus.

The Republican candidate has needled Taipei about its reliance on the United States, but Taiwan can still count on U.S. support if Trump returns to the White House.

“Perhaps more so than in other countries given its unique political status, Taiwan’s voters attach greater significance to foreign policy and more precisely relations with the United States and China.”

China is not just managing tensions but setting the stage to influence the next U.S. administration and push its long-term ambitions forward.

A range of intertwined international and domestic factors are driving Washington’s current policy toward the Taiwan Strait. 

While parallels are often overdone, the infamous attempt to appease Nazi Germany does hold lessons for contemporary China-U.S. relations.

Regardless of who wins in January 2024, we can expect continuity in U.S. policy toward Taiwan and China.

The rush to find a China-U.S. modus vivendi on Taiwan often involves intentionally overlooking the unequal nature of “provocations.” 

Divergent interpretations of the status quo can coexist during peacetime. But with tensions rising, it's getting tricky to keep the balance.

The U.S. – along with Taiwanese people – draws the important distinction between de jure Taiwanese independence and the existing status quo of Taiwanese autonomy and self-governance. 

Insights from Martin B. Gold.

Despite emphasizing his commitment to bipartisanship, Kevin McCarthy’s current top priority is promoting partisan legislation and cementing Republicans as tough on China. 

Taiwan’s president will visit Guatemala and Belize – with stopovers in New York and Los Angeles on her way to and from Central America.

What do the Taiwanese people themselves think?

The KMT and CCP are seeking to optimize their cross-strait policies in advance of next year's Taiwanese election.

Insights from Mark Cancian.

Rather than preventing a war with China over Taiwan, a policy centered on military deterrence could spark one.

Yes, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ambitions for absorbing Taiwan. But so did all his predecessors. 

Success depends on decreasing the perceived likelihood that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would succeed, minimizing the perceived benefits, and increasing the expected costs. 

A Taiwan conflict in which the United States and its allies win the battles but lose the war would not be a historical first.

We should be talking more about the bill’s Taiwan Fellowship Program, which could reshape Taiwan-U.S. ties over the long term.