US assumptions about China’s air power look outdated. It’s building a force that will be without rival in the Asia-Pacific.
This is the first in a series of articles looking at recent developments in China’s military.
The formal retirement ceremony this June for the last People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Shenyang J-6 / MiG-19 Farmer fighter marks an important milestone for China’s air power, as it transitions from a Cold War era, Soviet-style force to a modern and technologically sophisticated air force with a fleet of high performance aircraft.
Sadly, far too many analysts and senior bureaucrats in the United States remain tethered to the idea that the PLA fighter force still comprises fleets of thousands of cloned 1955 Soviet technology MiG-19 fighters, and is thus incapable of protecting China’s areas of interest from regional or US military forces. Yet although this perception remains appealing in Washington, it ceased to be true almost a decade ago, and today reflects more than anything what Huxley described as ‘vincible ignorance’—not knowing because you don’t want to.
For those that are interested though, a more accurate picture can be gleaned from the fact that about 5 years ago, China planned to field well in excess of 500 Russian designed Sukhoi Flanker fighters, a size comparable to the now declining United States Air Force fleet of around 600 Boeing F-15 Eagle fighters. The Flanker was designed to be a direct equivalent (in some respects superior) to the F-15, which is also the backbone of the Japanese and Singaporean fighter fleets.
Indeed, with an ongoing modernisation plan that will see all legacy aircraft types replaced by modern and much longer ranging replacements, the PLAAF will in numerical terms become the strongest air force in Asia, with the largest fleet of ‘tier one’ fighter aircraft globally, should the United States pursue its current plan to downsize and reduce the capabilities of its tactical air forces. In terms of air power alone, this will result in the single largest swing in the strategic balance in Asia since the 1940s.
The PLAAF has existed since the late 1940s, initially equipped with a mix of foreign—at that time Japanese, American and Soviet—aircraft. Through the 1950s the PLAAF acquired a wide range of then state-of-the-art Soviet planes and the first (and to date only) air war in which the PLAAF participated was in Korea, where Chinese pilots performed well in Soviet supplied MiG-15 Fagot fighters.
But a key juncture in the development of the PLAAF fighter force was the Khrushchev era collapse of relations between the Chinese and Soviet leaderships. Denied the ongoing supply of advanced Soviet aircraft, China resorted to the only choice it had, which was reverse engineering Soviet designs. Numerous Soviet types were built, the most significant being the MiG-19S Farmer, or Shenyang J-6, and the MiG-21F Fishbed, or Chengdu J-7 fighters. These cloned Soviet designs formed the backbone of the PLAAF and PLAN fighter regiments, until the next major evolutionary transition point—the fall of the Soviet Union.
Photo Credit: Uniphoto Press
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ronny
Your site is fantastic, this is just what i was looking for!
best,
ron,
ari
Reading al those American cowboys’ comments reminds me of fascist Nazis boasting about choking off Britain and Russia sea supply routes. These warlike Americans seeking and hoping for a confrontation at China’s doors brings to question the mentality and intentions of Washington. Mother Teresa these Washingtonites aren’t.
mohammad amjad
China has made great progress in the field of aviation,and in the construction of new airports.wishing good luck and lot of earning to workers in aviation industries.
James
China will not respond to a USA engineered false flag incident militarily, as she knows, the USA has all the advantaged.
If the irritant becomes unbearable, there are other preferable options.
China can wreak the USA economically by dumping a 100 billions US dollar denominated bonds in one hit! This is the equivalent of administering an electro magnetic pulse on the US Dollar.
Wall Streets will tanked overnight. The US treasuries bond market will suffered and buyers will rush for the exit doors. In essence, if the USA cannot sell its bonds or IOU, it will not have the means to pay for its oils, its imports, its infrastructures maintenance, its salaries, its pensions, its medicare….
Sure, China will suffer too, but as they say, some suffering is better when your adversary suffered more then you.The USA economy will be in a complete shambles.
So, China needs not pick a fight with the USA militarily. She has all the aces.
jun soyar
i disagree with you brother. You better come up with something believable.
Typhoon
@James,
I totally agree with you. China has the Ace on hand.
I have already dump all my US dollars fixed deposit and put my savings in Yuan.
@Jun Soyar,
Too bad. You refused to believe this will happen when China and US relation get worst.
Jonathan
Christian is so perceptive. What I would like to point out is that no one has mentioned that China does not have the capability to built her own jet engines. The engines for all those fighters are imported from Russia!
michael
the chinese successfully produced the INDIGENOUS WS-10 and WS-10A turbofan engines and implemented them on the j-11B fighters. they are also in the late stages of developing the WS-15, an engine with planned maximum thrust of 180kn, more than the AL-31Fs that currently equip su-27s by 50kns. please do some research before you publish your jingoist comments online.
durandal
guys..
when it comes to china weakness, think of only two words….”chocked points”.that`s right boys control of the sea lanes…, submarines, carriers battle groups, deep strikes by our stealth fighters and cruise missile assets . and a few allies , that`s all we need… their supply seawagons comes to a screeching halt and their economy will go in to a tailspin.that will force them to come out in to the open sea for a fight.lets see how their fancy fleet of 900 miles range fighters and their amateur, barely blue water navy will fare up agains`t the us navy 100 plus years of espirience at sea warfare,,what?? did say their ballistic missile threats!!!..hum?? that.. depends on a lot of very acurate and sophisticate space base asset for very presice targetting and we are lights years away in space compare to china.sorry boys but china has too much invested in u.s economy(treasury bill/us consumer market) to be looking for a dumb fight it cannot win.
Herb O’Fallon
The Chinese can survive their economy going into a tailspin better than we can. They’ve had hard times before. China has been around a long time for a reason. They’ve made more progress economically, militarily, etc. in the past 30 years than any other country. Their people are together. American arrogance can only last so long. Because of Washington’s stupidity in how it spends the taxpayers’ money, the U.S. can’t afford to do as much as it used to. It might be well for the U.S. to sit on the bench for a while. Think about things.
john
This article is nothing more than war propaganda!!! Guess the only solution for the US is to spend more on their military than the rest of the world combined to safeguard itself….on wait they already do!
Patrickbec
To all those saying that the US Airforce is not threatened by all these new Chinese fighters, ask yourselves, is the US Air Force as powerful as you think?. I have looked at USAF fighter numbers in the context of the continuing disestablishment of US Fighjter squadrons and what I have foubnd is alarming: The USAF has very few fighters (I am of course excluding reference to ANG and AFRES). By my reckoning, the USAF has the following combat units with the following numbers:
PACAF
18 TFW, Kadena, Okinawa, 50 F-15C/D
8 FW, Kusan, ROK, 50 F-16C/DG
51 FW, Osan ROK, 26 F-16C/DG, 18 A-10C
3 FW, Elmendork, AK, 40 F-22, 26 F-15C/D
TOTAL: 76 F-16, 76 F-15, 40 F-22, 0 F-15E, 18 A-10
USAFE
31 FW, Aviano, It, 52 F-16C/DG
52 FW, Spangeldahm, Ger, 26 F-16C/DJ, 20 A-10C
48 FW, Lakenheath, UK, 44 F-15E, 22 F-15C/D
USAFE TOTAL: 78 F-16, 22 F-15C, 20 A-10C, 44 F-15E
ACC
20 FW, McDill, Fla, 80 F-16C/DJ
4 FW, Seymour Johnson, NC, 48 F-15E
23 FG, Moody, Ga, 44 A-10C
1 FW, Langley, Va, 40 F-22, 26 F-15C/D
388 FW, Hill, Utah,50 F-16C
366 FW, Mountain Home, Idaho, 36 F-15E
49 FW, Holloman, NM, 40 F-22
355 FW, Davis Monthan, 22 A-10C
ACC TOTAL: 130 F-16, 26 F-15s, 80 F-22, 84 F-15E, 66 A-10C.
The above excludes training units, and units recently deactivated (35 FW, 1 squadron of the 388th, one squadron of the 52nd, and the F-15 squadron of the 366th).
The A-10 and F-15Es are not aircombat fighters, so I’ll exclude it from the numbers. In the Pacific region, the USAF would have a total of 182 F-15/-16-22 to face up to 400 plus Su-27/-33/-J-11s, plus hundreds of J-17s etc. World wide reinforcements, assuming every USAF USA and Europe based fighter could be rushed to the Pacific theatre (totally unrealistic, especially considering at least 15% would be in over-haul/ maintenance, and of course the US has other commitments), would bring an addition of 208 F-16s, 48 F-15s and 80 F-22s!
So to conclude, the USAF in the Pacific could bring 192 fighters (including 40 5th gen F-22s) to the fight, and the entire USAF could bring a 528 fighters to battle (120 5th gen), if it had time to effect the re-deployment, every fighter was out of deep maintanance, a 100 FMC rate existed and no other threats or on-going wars existed elsewhere requiring a fighter presence. The F-35 won’t have any impact on these numbers until at least 2015-16. Yes, two carrier groups would add 44 Super Hornets and 40 legacy Hornets to the fight, and the Marines in Okinawa 2 squadrons of 24 legacy Hornets, but against a force of 400 F-15 equivalent SU-27/33/J-11s, quite frankly, I don’t share those who are optimistic at the USA chances, especially if the Chinese keep addding to their numbers and the USAF keeps cutting back.
Zach
I understand that we are out numbered but u have to understand that 1 f-22 is as good as 20 to 30 of the su 27s I am an f-22 pilot and i assure u that we have nothing to worry about from the su 27s Etc.
RWu
But where are you going to land your F-22 if those bases are destroyed by missiles.
doc
While in reality…
1. Su-27/Su-30/J-11 only around 300, with original Su-27 close to retirement. While any further production of J-11(B)s are stopped due to engine problems.
2. Whatever J-10B is, it’s only in testing stage, with 6 examples built God know when it will come out. While regular J-10 only number ~150 and China only have enough engines to build 250 more (at the expense of J-11s). Domestic engine replace are experience massive problems right (which cause production of J-11 to stop).
3. While new the stuff is good, you are still talking about an air force that still built Tu-16s and J-8s (Mig-21 with two engines), new. PLAAF is amazingly cheap like that. (perhaps something USAF will understand, if the budget deficit here gets any worse) Any of the scenario described in the article will simply not happen, unless there is imminent threat of war in East Asia (which is not the case) or gold somehow rains in China. (that is assuming the Chinese Military doesn’t waste its money buying Audi and Mercedes staff cars which is what’s happening right now)
RWu
Even the cheapest new fighter cost at least 100x as much as a fully loaded Audi A8, so when you think about it Audis and Mercedes are very cost effective way to keep the troops’ morale high, not to mention stimulate the economy and reduce trade friction caused by massive Chinese trade surpluses.
For the same reasons the PLA is known to operate hotels and massage parlors near PLA bases, and the PLA has long standing endorsement deals with various lifestyle companies (such as the 110 proof Maotai wine).
In China, joining the PLA is considered such a nice career prospect that parents often pay tens of thousands of dollars in bribes to get their sons enlisted.
Of course none of the Chinese soldiers have any battlefield experience since China hasn’t entered a war in over 30 years but the sheer size (and rapidly increasing budget) of the PLA plus China’s trade relationship with potential adversaries should discourage any kind of conflict.
Tom Herring
Dear Daniel
Fair enough, fear mongering is a most undesirable element for any community or nation. I dont think that Kopp is implying that the Chinese are planning on taking over the world militarily any time soon, but their plans and growth like most nations’ involve a strategic long term forecasts which plan for future border skirmishes. Kopp’s article makes a lot of sense, check Air Power Australia website what they say about the system capabilities described there. It seems that if push ever came to shove ,trust me the Chinese could and probably would push back Real Hard. Super Hornets and F-35 are awesome machines but looking at the balance of power in the past and looking at the potential future balance things have changed considerably and will likely change further in the future.