Egypt has shown how fast events can transform political landscapes. It’s not too early to start preparing for North Korea’s possible collapse—and for reunification.
While the popular uprisings in Egypt and the Middle East are unlikely to infect North Korea, they are still a reminder that sudden change is always possible. With this in mind, it’s clear that uncertainties surrounding the transition from Kim Jong-il to his untested son, Kim Jong-un, could precipitate a cascading set of events that ends with swift and unexpected unification.
Rapid unification would almost certainly rule out the soft-landing scenario so devoutly wished for by most South Koreans. That kind of happy reunion would likely require a gradual rapprochement based on increasing economic ties, security confidence-building measures and regular people-to-people contacts. A much more rapid transition would leave no time for such incremental steps, which could come about as part of a long process of confederation.
To be sure, abrupt unification would be intoxicating. Divided in 1945, when the northern and southern Koreas were both desperately poor, the pair would be reuniting with at least one of the two parts having achieved G-20 world-leader status. The streets of Seoul would be filled with euphoric nationalism. In addition, a historical accident would be rectified: namely, the fact that US and Soviet forces ending Japanese occupation in 1945 drew a line across the 38th Parallel as an operational expedient in order to divide responsibility for disarming combatants.
But ecstasy would soon give way to reality. The international community would be left with a stabilization and state-building nightmare bigger than Afghanistan and Iraq and much more dangerous than German reunification 20 years ago. Indeed, if unification were to come about this hastily, the cataclysmic event could well go down in history as one of the biggest missed opportunities of our century.
The problem is that Korea would be unified but not united, and there could well be a resurgence of long-dormant, historical inter-Korean turmoil. Few remember that in the post-1945 aftermath of liberation, deep social fragmentation and political polarization produced an orgy of mayhem and murder. The clandestine political societies that had evolved during Japanese occupation, many of which had been nurtured by outsiders, had free rein to vie for power. When one considers the massive economic disparities that would also be in play because of a South Korean economy more than twenty-fold that of North Korea’s, the technical end of the Korean War could well mark the beginning of another.
Photo Credit: UNC - CFC - USFK
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Ashley
Korea became victim to the big 2 superpowers abusing the country as a strategic foothold against eachother. The ONLY WAY to reunify korea is for allied forces to leave the peninsula.(like the soviets did along time ago) U.S can move over and expand military bases in japan and allow the 12th largest economy with g20 status (south) work with the north. Truth is north has untapped amount of resources that the south can develop minus the existing u.n sanctions Korea as one would be scary to all neighbours. If the Korean brothers work together then very quickly u have the 4th largest army in the world who hold nukes (north) and the 7th largest army in the world with a big navy (south) combined. Finally career can no longer b dictated 2 by foreigners and they can deciede their own course. THE ONLY WAR KOREANS HAVE EVER FOUGHT IS THE ONE WE STARTED! costs would b long lasting but with the capital deployed correctly whilst springing up many economic zones in the north, Korea as one can have a good economy and stability
ari
I tend to agree with with KoreanUnificationist that the sinking of the Cheonan was by the Americans. They have the motives and they have the most to gain. I question the sinking was by North Korea. Washington did not like the sunshine policy of Seoul and Pyongyang, so that miserable creep Goerge Bush stopped it and supported LMB covertly to get into power. No, Washington is not interested in peace in North East Asia but seeked instead to keep tensions on the boil there to maintain it strateic interest. South Koreans and Japanese are all pawns in her murderous power game. Have no illusions about the evil intentions and motives of Washington for East Asia.
I look to the day when a united East Asia come together to fight and kick out the great American Pretender or Anti-Christ out of the Far East.
KoreanUnificationist
All Koreans want reunification. First off, I am a Korean, my parents are Korean, I experience “Koreanness” and I learn about Korea.
USA claims to spread democracy all over the world? We called that bull. A country who first supported Gaddafi 4 years ago now backstabs him in Libya to look good.
Same thing they do on Korea. Claiming to be a protective ally but rather an obstacle to Korean purpose.
EVERYONE ATTENTION: The Cheonan sinking? Please don’t give me bull. Here’s what it is. Obama (and us gov’t) wants to control the tensions on their East Asian relationship. Japan asks to remove 2/3 of US troops out of their country (man, US also just keeps on invading other countries). Coincedentally, some days later the Cheonan sinking happened. It’s proven that the US military purposely torpedoed the Cheonan, allowing North Korean criticism.
Our stupid ROK president Lee has no idea what he’s doing. HE IS A DOG OF AMERICAN GOV’T (like Gadaffi, once).
Vladimir Putin wanted to investigate the incident but was bribed by Lee (indirectly, by USA) to stop the investigation. After all, money is the powerful thing in politics.
Oh, and to all American gov’t arrogant, stereotypical supporters, I believe that all gov’ts do bribe, no matter how good their media image is. including US and Korea, or anything.
We may never know the truth. That’s what’s so hyprocritical about politics and history. We live subjectively, not objectively. Media has been even more corrupt, distorting news ever than before.
I don’t give a crap what replies there will be.
BUT MARK MY WORDS!!! US, Japan, China, and many others will hate the day when the Korean peninsula is unified.
Oliver
Everyone, including the US, China, Japan, and Russia, knows that Korean unification is inevitable. The question addressed by the author is when and how that reunification will take place.
I agree that the recent uprising in Egypt shows that a spontaneous radical change in North Korea is quite possible at any moment.
There are many subtle changes taking place in North Korea. It is no longer the same was it was as, let’s say, in 1994 when simultaneously Kim Il Sung died and North Korea suffered a huge famine with 2-3 million starving to death. Many observers thought North Korea would collapse, but the fanatical, almost religious state worship of the North Korean regime proved to be more stable than thought.
Today though, North Korea is slowly opening up and moving towards a de facto market economy, as China did decades ago. In 1994, everyone in North Korea was poor, including the country’s elite and common masses. Today, there is definitely a distinct capitalist class in North Korea who are showing significant and unprecedented signs of affluence and knowledge about the outside world. Whether this reform process will be successful, or whether the strain of economic and political reform will be too much remains to be seen.
But as the author states, a radical collapse or shift in North Korea could occur at any moment, so South Korea and the world should take care to not be taken unawares if this occurs. The task of reintegrating North Korea in the event of a sudden collapse would be monumental and would require immediate international cooperation, especially from South Korea, Japan, China and the United States.
Miles
Interesting, I lived closely to and often met Koreans while living in Los Angeles. Koreans may “all want…reunification” but South Koreans don’t even view North Koreans as the same people or race. Rather, lapdogs who all support the Communist Regime speak a different language and have a different culture. This quite honestly baffles me when racial purity is such an important topic in Korean society and how quick the Korean tongue is to blame foreign powers for its division. No, Korea has had a long history of internally preventing itself from advancing by practicing isolationism in fear of foreign influence. However Korea was freed from Japanese Imperialism by a foreign power, the US and Russia, in 1945. South Korea only exists because the U.S. stepped into the Korean War and defended it from Communist expansion. SK otherwise would have went the way of South Vietnam and good luck even knowing your relatives in the Democratic Republic of Korea, a Stalinist, suffering nation that is too backward to know its torturing people for ill defined reasons.
Why doesn’t South Korea have a more strident opinion of Russia, China or other countries that physically stepped into the defense and continued support of North Korea? I’ve never heard a South Korean have such a passionate, negative opinion of “Deceitful Russians” or “Meddling Chinese” who are the only reason the Korean Peninsula remains divided as far as I am concerned.
JYJ
Wow, this is a quite an old post. But I came across it and I'll reply. First, my fellow Korean above their is being quite hateful on the US, and I can see you're national ego hurt. I don't blame you. But let me give you some more details. It's true that as South Korea developed while our lagging neighbor at the north fell back further, and the younger generation and even the existing ones have lost interest in the prospect of a reunification. But we view North Koreans as the same people and race. Where on earth did you get those views from, from Korean Americans? Heck, they barely represent us ethnic Koreans living in Korea. We speak the same language, and we have the same culture for the most part. There may be regional differences (e.g south and north) but this is also present between East and West regions of Korea (Jeolla and Gyeongsang, both in South Korea). For both language and culture, the differences come almost solely from modernization of the South. South Korea, as it developed, developed many new words and accepted many English words such as "Computers, Radio, Goal keepers" and on which are obviously from western origins. North Korea, although I prefer their ways, adopted natural-Korean words for these nouns and terms and so on, much like China. The other language differences come from dialects, but this is not much of a problem as people will eventually got used to, as in the case of Jeolla and Gyeongsang. They were never a different language to start of with, and only minor verbs or nouns sound different by a bit or just different. We speak to North Koreans like Americans would speak to the British or the Aussies, perhaps with just a few more difference in a few vocabs. It's not like an American can't understand a conversation of Brits' at all. We understand each other.
And yes, foreign powers are to blame for this diversion in the first place. Maybe not for the inter-Korean disharmony going on right now which is due to the stupid government (in my opinion, anyway). But way, way back in the roots, it could be traced back to all the western powers trying to open up East Asia. America took advantages of Japan when Japan was still a fledgling– which the Japanese learned to be like other western powers and forcefully gained control of Taiwan followed by Korea for brutal colonization. Then they waged war against the US, and USSR entered the war on the Pacific (I'm going very briefly on the history part here) and ended up USSR and US competeing for a better place in NE Asia against each other, which turned out to be Korea. Now, you say Korea was freed by the US/ and USSR for that matter– which is undeniable fact. I guess we should be grateful, but it kinda pisses me off that America is some hero for Korea against the Japanese (But do keep in mind, I don't have the same views for Korean War). What US did was to make Japan surrendar with the atomic bombs dropped on Japanese mainland. At the time, however, the temporary government of Korea that was based in Manchuria led by later-the-first-president Syungman Lee and national leader Gu, Kim, was soon to launch a full scale attack against the Japanese to drive them out, when Japan was near its last straw against the US and other western nations. This was a big force that planned to completely take out the Japanese when they were busy, and was planned around October~December of 1945. But as you would know, Japan surrendered in August. The two world powers, US and USSR, eager to take control of Japanese colonies and its lands (much like Germany, although USSR participated too late in the war to account for control of Japan) stepped in and each set up two different governments in Korea. We, did not create the cold war and the fight for the frontier after Japan surrendered. It was you Americans and Russians responsible for the initial result of this separation, and ultimately the Japanese and Chinese included.
Now, you talk about why we don't blame Russians or China. Well, we do, and all of other nations deserve the same crap for this separation (Okay, leave China out on that. No Korean says China was not the as*hole responsible for the biggest share of this failure to unify back in Korean war, if they ever took a history class) Now, not to condemn and Korean-Americans, but I advise you not to take any Korean Americans perspective on history and such matters. They're indifferent, they don't care, and most of them are too young– so they don't care (sorry for the exceptions)
I don't know why we should blame Russia, they're no longer USSR, no longer communist, barely supporting NK as they used to. We have good economical ties with them. No one really has hard feelings towards Russians. America is simply blamed more than Russia because you guys are still here, and time to time there's always something on the news about American soldiers doing some bad shit. 2002 there was a massive anti-American movements when American soldiers killed two south Korean girls and got away with. Even last year, I can remember at the top of my head an American Soldier raped a single women living by herself by breaking into her house, group of American soldiers arrested a Korean national outside the Military Camp in non-military grounds and dragged him back to base(they were fighting in front of a clothes shop about parking, apparently). I don't blame the entire American commnity, but there's always bound to be as*holes in every country. Russia was never a military presence in South Korea, and we were never reminded of them.
As for China, that's a whole different story. They're probably the biggest reason why we coulnd't reunite. I don't know what kind of Koreans you were talking to that didn't blame China but only the US. Now that would be weird. The general rule is that China is more responsible for this separation, period.
LOL
So long as the US Empire is stretching her military tentacles in China’s backyard, Korea will never be reunified. Period.
Unless America goes back to her own continent, and let the Asians figure it out themselves, Korea will never be reunified. Period.
Steven Douglas
I agree with LOL…we should let Asians figure it out. We can start by letting Chinese Asians figure out who they want to lead their country and acually allow them to vote or have free speech or free association.
Lee
that is all well and good, however, you ignore the fact that South Korea has asked for the American presence. it is easy to blame one country when you have no clue what is going on behind closed doors…amazing how many people have the answer to the world’s problems and yet somehow, they are not the one’s in a position to make the decision…so obviously it is not as simple as it seems….
Lol
If SK wants US presence and unification, she can only choose one, and not the other. You can’t have your cake and eat it. that is the lesson of the first Korean War.
Greg
Social imperialist Maoist running dog! When militarist communist killers give up power, there will be peace. The blood of millions of Koreans are on Chinese bloody hands.
Grant
The problem with this idea is that from everything we have seen China do we have no reason to believe that China will grow closer to South Korea or to the U.S on this issue. Yes, the cables revealed by Wikileaks have suggested that some Chinese officials have stated that they are getting tired of North Korea but what have we actually seen China do? So far we have seen constant efforts to protect North Korea at the U.N and other cables from Wikileaks suggest that China ignored U.S requests to search shipments from North Korea that were suspected to violate the U.N embargo.
I cannot deny the possibility that with the coming change in leadership there might be a shift in policy but I seriously doubt, particularly with the apparent strength of the Chinese military in politics.
S P Dudley
The risks on Korean Unification are a bit similar to the Yugoslavian breakup. In 1991 it was pretty obvious that Yugoslavia wasn’t going to survive much longer as a state, but instead of managing the “divorce” of the complement nations inside, individual nations outside Yugo acted on their own and started to encourage independence for its components (Germany was particularly rash on this). Without a diplomatic framework to work out the separation of the various Yugo states, there was a domino effect once one state declared independence, and war resulted.
The risks in Korean unification are that individual players such as South Korea and China will work on their own to support factions within North Korea to seize the government, should the Kim regime start to get unstable. If both South Korea and China support opposing factions both sides will go “all in” to get into the North before it completely collapses and you could have a war between China and South Korea (and by extension the USA) as a result.
It’s time to give up on the disarmament issue and get the six parties to work on a post-Kim regime in the North that will progress to a union of the Koreas. Wikileaks (if it’s to be believed) showed evidence that the Chinese are not quite in control of things in Pyongyang and if South Korea can work out an arrangement with China, specifically that a unified Korean state will not maintain nuclear weapons and will not permanently station US troops, the Chinese might be persuaded to agree to a unification.
Some have suggested that the Chinese might fear a unified Korea. That’s probably true, but the Chinese have a strategic interest in opposing and isolating Japan, and a unified Korea would see Japan as a strategic competitor. So there’s incentive there for both nations to find an arrangement. Not that I agree with that, but it’s one possible scenario to consider.
Stefan Stackhouse
One of the most helpful things the US could do to defuse tensions both now and in the event of this sudden reunification scenario would be to declare that our forces are there strictly for defense south of the DMZ, and to commit to not moving our armed forces north of that line under any circumstances. (An exception could, perhaps, be made for unarmed forces offering logistical support for humanitarian assistance operations.) Relocating them far to the south would help even more. These days, our forward deployment is more of a provocation to the PRC and DPRK than it is a reassurance to the ROK.
This would reassure the Chinese considerably. I would venture to guess that had the US-led forces simply restored the status quo ante and stopped, rather than continuing on all the way to the border with China (and threatening to go beyond, in McArthur’s mind at least), the PLA would never have intervened and the Korean war would have ended years and lives earlier. It is even within the realm of possibility that the DPRK regime would have collapsed and the reunification that is envisioned here could have happened in the early 1950s.
If the Chinese can be reassured that they are not going to be facing armed US forces directly across their border, then this will give them room to lean quite a bit harder on the DPRK, and to be less obstructive if there ever is movement toward reunification.
ksou
A Korean Unification may be dangerous, since you have a starving population in the North that will likely attempt to rush into the South as soon as the wall falls. Plus the North’s government will fall apart leading to near chaos .
This also presents a problem for China, the Chinese will have to deal with millions of North Korean refugees trying to do what all people will do when presented with hunger, go somewhere with food .
It wouldn’t surprise me if China decides to “teach them on lesson ” on N.Korea and invades , then sets up a puppet government . This puppet government, controlled by China , would serve Chinese interest . China fears an unified Korea, since it would instantly become an economic competitor . Therefore this Chinese puppet would maintain a status quo of a divided Korea, but their would be far less tension .
Caleb
“China fears an unified Korea, since it would instantly become an economic competitor . Therefore this Chinese puppet would maintain a status quo of a divided Korea, but their would be far less tension.”
I’ve yet to find any weight to this assumption. In a general sense, China would fear a reunified Korea as a competitor but only so far as China would fear any country as a competitor. A reunified Korea has neither the natural resources, human capital, or technological superiority that would cause China a major headache (as opposed to say, the US, the EU or India). Thus, I fail to see the long term interests for China to support a divided Korea. Even Japan, where there is strong mutual distrust, has found a complementary trading system with China. If anything, I think China has more to gain (economically) with a reunified Korea than without.
Lol
China doesn’t want a pro-US country on her border, it has nothing to do with trading partners. It’s that simple.
Duke
I predict that China may disintegrate into regional mini-Chinas as result of North Korea’s demise.
China will invade to set-up a puppet regime but what if North Koreans fight back? Chinese PLA conscripts consisting of spoiled mama’s boys thanks to the ill conceived 1 child policy will face well trained NK army and reserves hell bent on defending their homeland. US, Russia, Japan and South Korea won’t stand pat either and demand PLA withdrawals and support the NK defenders. In the mean time NK Scuds land all over China not to mention 1 humiliating defeat after another by NK guerrilla and regular forces. Chinese economy inflated by easy money bubbles and real estate will pop and people angry with financial losses and perhaps economic sanctions by the rest of the world will result in mini peasant revolution. Opportunistic regional warlord may take over – old typical history of China repeats.
John Chan
@Duke, it is an article about Korea, on what earth do you put in such mean spirited words to bad mouthing China? Which nation do you come from? How can a nation bring up their citizens like you that are mean spirited, and mindful of bad faith toward others. Instead of trying to follow China to build their nations to prosperity, they become jealous, resentful and fearful of what China has achieved, and turned their depression into terrible expression against China like you.
Greg
Mr. Chan, no on trusts china. No one.
typhoonq
@Duke
Obviously, you would like to see this happen. What a evil person are you!
China will not fragment into smaller states like former USSR. On the contrary, she will consolidate her strength and territory with the reunification of Taiwan by 2020.
China has been a unified country for more than two thousand years and 92% of the people are Han Chinese and speak and write a common language.
Why would a country break up when it’s people are enjoying better living standard and gaining prosperity year by year.
Duke, are you prepared to reveal your nationality ?
John
@Duke
To be honest, thats not a likely scenario. Its more likely the United States will fracture along regional lines, which could occur if the United States loses it status of world power and national focus internalizes. Issues such as gay rights and immigration are continuously avoided by the federal government creating tension between states. After all, we are the most liberal and free speaking society in the world. We allow any ideas to manifest, and certainly, secession is still in the minds of the people (at least in the South).
~Kezo~
I give the U.S. ten years before it almost destroys itself, it’s one of the few Developed Nations that I know of in which it’s own citizens hate and would love to destroy each other over their differences. The US is the most selfish first world nation that I know of on the planet. Hell, our very culture is ruled by an almost savage drive for self gratification that it is the very model of a perverted form of social Darwinism, as idolized by the majority of our conservative population, while the liberal side believe in supporting policies that sounds pretty, but with absolutely no substance or real value, and would rather throw excuses at the problem rather than solve it like adults.
Ironically, if both political parties were to truly co-operate, rather than fight like the spoiled children that they are,then they could easily advance as a country and nation of it’s own, but as it stands, Our nation needs to invade and destroy other nations rather than fix and maintain our own.
So unfortunately due to our voracious appitite, our selfish hatred, and our own ignorance fueled by TV it looks like our nation is very close to being in it’s last throes because our leaders and ourselves are just like spoiled children, neither are emotionally mature enough to stand on their own, let alone together!
But then again, our leaders DO agree on one thing..Plutocracy, as they have shown with how they support corporations and themselves rater than the people that they serve, rather they pit we the people against each other to maintain their careers.
Further, our rapid decay is fueled by a desperate need to consume above all else, because we believe it to be our “God given” right, and guess what happens when a spoiled child whom believes they’re “entitled” loses their favorite toy? They will waste and destroy everyone in their way to get back what is “theirs”, particularly when it wasn’t even theirs to begin with..
Because of our nation’s leader’s (Who WE elect) short sighted mission to rapidly deplete our own resources to greedily achieve monetary and social dominance over it’s own countrymen our nation is doomed to fall by our own hand. So when “Duke” actually has the arrogance to criticize countries like China that have successfully maintained their nation many decades BEFORE the Roman empire and during the time when most of Europe was getting wiped out by disease from dumping their sewage and garbage in the streets of their cities, and in the very waterways in which they drank and bathed, just realize that like his grunting peers, “Duke’s” word holds as much weight as water being flushed down a toilet.
I don’t know if China will do the right thing or not, or even how and when North and South Korea can simply exist as “Korea” I do know that the rest of the world would certainly benefit from it, and I’m also sure that I’m not as ignorant as a man who steals from another, while leaving my own door unlocked!
Anon
@Kezo Americans who are not chained to the Xbox, TV and Malls should take back their country. It used to be great before it succumbed to the plutocracy- kleptocracy.
Smiley G
Duke, your ignorance shows. You obviously haven’t read the CIA report released in the 1990s where Washington was dismayed to learn that China was least likely to distingerate unlike Indonesia and India. You obviously don’t understand that China is a continuous state and civilization for more than 4,000 years while Indonesia and India are relatively recent artifical constructs. Nations are not made by cobbling disparate states, tribes, islands, overnight.
LOL
A reunified Korea will not be a economic competitor to China, since a reunified Korea will be set back decades in development because it’s inherit one of the most decrepit, backwards, and poor Stalinist regimes in the world.
A reunified Korea in the long term may regain some of her glory, but she will never be the same because North Korea is TOO BIG OF A FAILURE TO BE A SUCCESS.
Anon
What are you smoking? When a Chinese sees a country, first question they ask, how do we do business with them? Yes, not ideologically elegant, but straight-up pragmatism could do a lot more good in piecing the fragments back together.
Johnny
It is a well known fact that N.Korea is indulged in mass scale violations of human rights and its infrastructure has collapsed leaving people without basic amenities. There attitude towards others is also very irresponsible threatening nuclear attacks if things don’t go their way. This attitude is a threat to humanity as a whole and not just for S.Korea. Reunification may result in temporary disturbance but it would provide massive long term gains to both S.Korea and world stability.
Also, @Alex I can’t understand why you start bashing USA on every possible occasion? You are saying that USA isn’t attacking N.Korea as it will affect weapons sales but US isn’t stopping S.Korea either. So either go ahead and have your war Or if you want US support than wait for them. Why criticize them? Just because they sell weapons to S.Korea? Then why not criticize China who provides weapons to N.Korea?
alex
For some time now USA economy based on fear, problem of among another countries in order to sale of weapons that is a base for economic growth in America.
Any peace any peaceful scenario like Korean unification it would be blow to sale of weapons to Korea so it must be not so good for USA.Next best thing to do profess fear illogical scenarios to ignorant public to get public support to look for a wars.
But how long one must ask?
Egypt scenario would not be predicted CIA with a billions of public dollars.So how can we accept your prediction that Korean Unification would be dangers.
We thought a danger was either prediction or your middle man,like a get smart agent 86 says ” danger’s and love in it”
Devin
@ alex
First of all, what? Second of all, no.
Your analysis relies heavily on fears of American neoconservatism, which have proven to be the major impetus for many worldwide injustices, yes. But at the same time, it paints with a very broad brush and, in my opinion, takes the easy road by laying the blame squarely on the shoulders of a (perhaps deservedly) easy target. While there may be some in the US who’d oppose reunification for reasons of military strategy and weapon sales, you discount entirely the most glaringly apt explanations.
First of all, as the article’s author points out, this would bear no resemblance to East/West German reunification. Recombining willy-nilly the South, with one of the world’s biggest economies, with the North, a nation whose crumbling infrastructure, chronic food shortages, and empty factories have caused the deaths of thousands, if not millions of its own citizens, would cause massive runs for the border, resulting in what might become an apartheid state or a tanking economy. Over 50 years of separation has, like it or not, created two irreconcilable halves which would take years, if not decades to combine into a functional whole. This doesn’t even take into account differing ideological and foreign policy considerations, which are a whole different and possibly more challenging hurdle.
I’m no expert on Inter-Korean studies, but I can’t take the easy road of placing the blame on the United States, at least in this situation. Also, I cringe when I see others doing so. The United States’ hands are FAR from clean, but exalting them to puppet-master status in this case is lazy and adds little in the way of constructive commentary.
len-nin
Nonsense. Washington IS a puppet master. Who are you trying to protect?