Syria and the New Cold War (Page 2 of 2)

At the heart of the international struggle is a concerted attempt by the United States and its allies to bring down the ruling regimes in both Iran and Syria. Iran’s “crime” has been to refuse to submit to U.S. hegemony in the oil-rich Gulf region and to appear to pose a challenge, with its nuclear program, to Israel’s regional nuclear monopoly. At the same time, Iran, Syria and Hizbollah – partners for the past three decades – have managed to make a dent in Israel’s military supremacy. They have in recent years been the main obstacle to U.S-Israeli regional dominance.

Israel has for years demonised Iran’s nuclear program as an “existential” threat to itself and a danger to the entire world, and has repeatedly threatened to attack it. Its fevered gesticulations have pressured – some might say blackmailed – the United States and the European Union into imposing crippling sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and its central bank.

The real issue, however, is one of regional dominance. Iran’s nuclear program poses no particular danger to Israel. With its large nuclear arsenal, Israel has ample means to deter any would be aggressor. Nor would Iran willingly risk annihilation in a nuclear exchange. However, a nuclear-capable Iran – even if it never actually built a bomb – would limit Israel’s freedom of action, notably its freedom to strike its neighbours at will.

Israel is therefore at pains to restore its regional dominance, which has recently been somewhat curtailed. Its invasion of Lebanon in 2006 failed to destroy Hizbollah, while its 2008 to 2009 assault on Gaza failed to destroy Hamas. Worse still from Israel’s point of view, the war attracted international opprobrium and damaged Israel’s relations with Turkey. The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has put at risk the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty which, by removing the strongest country from the Arab line-up, guaranteed Israeli dominance for 30 years.

Israel’s current strategy has been to get the United States to cripple Iran on its behalf. But the U.S. has also suffered grave setbacks in the region: its catastrophic war in Iraq; its unfinished conflict in Afghanistan; the violent hostility it has aroused in the Muslim world, particularly in Pakistan, Yemen and the Horn of Africa. It, too, is striving to retain its pre-eminence over the oil-rich Gulf States.

Because of their own apprehensions over Iran, the Arab states of the Gulf have allowed themselves to be drawn into the conflict. They seem to fear that Iran may endanger the existing political order by stirring up local Shia communities. With Qatar in the lead, they joined the United States and Israel in their assault against Damascus and Tehran. However, perhaps belatedly aware that a regional war could be catastrophic for them, there are signs that they are having second thoughts.

At last weekend’s Munich Security Conference, Qatar’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Khalid al-Attiyah, declared that an attack on Iran “is not a solution, and tightening the embargo will make the scenario worse. I believe we should have dialogue.” That is the voice of reason in an increasingly fraught regional situation.

Patrick Seale is a British writer on the Middle East and author of 'The Struggle for Syria' and 'Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East'. He has reported for Reuters and The Observer among other publications.

Comments
30

[...] Seale, Patrick; Syria and the New Cold War; 2012, February; retrieved from http://thediplomat.com/2012/02/08/syria-and-the-new-cold-war/ [...]

Baron
February 26, 2012 at 16:56

It is interesting to read comments that imply that some states act morally. Most people would define themselves as being on the side of right no matter their behaviour. When the ‘coalition of the willing’ moved on Iraq there was a similar divide: America became the ‘great satan,’ the ‘imperial aggressor’ on one side and the French became ‘traitors’ and ‘selfish’ on the other. The time-honoured tradition of demonising the other, the ‘enemy’ or ‘opposition’ came into play there, just as it has here. In my opinion, there is no moral high ground for the US or Russia or China over Syria (or any other country) because self-preservation is totally entwined with the ideological principles that people are pushing out as their justifications. For within each nation state’s foreign policy there is hypocrisy, compromise, exeptions to the ‘rule’ and so on.

Now, if we were to deal with the problems of egoic self-preservation with egoless community action, such as rolypolying through the streets of damascus then we might be able to claim ‘morality’ but when this occurs there is no ego to claim moral superiority.

Steven H
February 15, 2012 at 05:40

This is a poorly written piece that fails to deliver on its title. Jockeying for strategic high ground in the Middle East is about large powers advancing national interests in an economically integrated international environment. One of the defining facets of the Cold War was an utter lack of economic interaction between the rival superpowers.

In regards to the Sino-Russian veto of U.N. Security Council sanctions against Syria, I’d point the author to a good op-ed recently published in the New York Times by Minxin Pei (Why Beijing Votes with Moscow). Pei’s main point: “The two countries seem to have reached a strategic understanding: they will act to defy the West together, so that neither might look isolated. China will defer to Russia on matters more critical to Moscow (such as Syria) while Russia will do the same on issues China cares about (such as Zimbabwe or Burma).” China has very few interests in Syria, while’s Russia’s are enormous. There is nothing in this arrangement reminiscent of the Cold War, three decades of which involved open hostility between Beijing and Moscow.

The argument is a little less specious regarding the Middle East but misses some main points, notably the tension in U.S./Israeli relations that the situation in Iran has created. The tone of the piece suggests that Israel is nothing short of a military proxy for the U.S. in the Middle East, acting hand-in-hand with Washington on every major security issue. Nonsense! Also, the article fails to address the fact that Russia really doesn’t want to see a nuclear armed Iran as this would strengthen Tehran’s hand in Central Asia.

oksik
February 13, 2012 at 08:00

Liberty and justice will go long way than blame shifting and falt finding. It is time that the world condamns and banishes kakistocracy.

Mark
February 12, 2012 at 01:41

This is a war against theocracy and fascism. Khamenei and Assad have to be brought down – and soon.

Mike Larlham
February 11, 2012 at 00:09

I’m sorry …did I miss something? Has not the Iranian government not vowed to wipe Israel off the map? I must have missed when Israel ever attempted to assasinate an entire country. Well then , why on Earth not let Iran have nuclear weapons? While we’re at it , let’s let Cuba and Venezuela have a couple too. They would never use them anyway .Hell , North Korea ( another ally of the friendly Chinese and Russians ), only threaten to obliterate South Korea about every couple months or so . These are definately the world powers I want in control .
Who wrote this garbage article?.. Can you say :middle eastern extreamest bias?”
People ..here is the thing ..There are those that want to kill on the basis of power .Those who believe that might makes right .Those who want to subjegate entire countries , hiding behind either religios zealoutry , or archaic autocratic political sanctom that have never worked and never will work.
The world has two choices ..live free or die .The United States offers the first.. ..Communism , repression of free individualism and expression , and liberty offer you the latter .

The_Observer
February 9, 2012 at 10:04

“….ultimately unless it becomes part of the Greater Persian Empire encompassing Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan”

Not if India has any say regarding the last two.

fav
February 9, 2012 at 03:30

What will we do when there is no order after the regime change. Nothing like we did in Lybia and Egypt.

James
February 9, 2012 at 02:06

The United States should uregently rethink it’s policy in The Middle East. It is not a welcome presence in the region and if this country would simply make a firm decision to become energy independent (we have loads of everything you could possibly ever need to power our economy for years and years to come) as quickly as possible. It is a shame that we cannot drill in Alaska, run the Keystone Pipeline, use fracking technology and other means to get to our vast reserves. . .

This country subsidizes a billion dollars a day for the Gulf Monarchies (everyday the price of oil is at or around $100 The Gulf Countries make one billion a day) while at the same time subsidizes the Iranian Nuclear Program beacuse every day that the price is above $80 this is profit for Tehran to use towards this program. This subsidy is only possible due to the presence of The US 5th Fleet in Bahrain which also subsidizes the eventual replacement of The US Dollar as Reserve Currency by providing the means for The Straits to stay open allowing for Iranian oil to go to India where the transaction is not conducted in dollars. If we were serious about using our Energy we could pull every troop, from every base in The Gulf and watch the results on TV without any of it being our concern. And why not? Does not the people of the region blame The United States for Israel, creating Taliban and Al Qaeda, the palestinians, dictatorships, Egypt, Mubarak, Iraq, needless slaughter of civilians throughout the region, among many other countless grievances? If this is so would it not be better for everyone involved if we left? The best thing for the region is for us to leave and once we do so the problems of the region should be immediately solved according to conventional opinion throughout the region and the world. It is not in our strategic interest to be involved in this part of the world. The sooner we recognize it the better. And the best step is to start producing our own energy, now. . .

Jamal Hyder
February 9, 2012 at 00:31

The Washington bully together with its NATO goons, has been stirring up trouble for too many people for too long. At long last, Moscow and Beijing decides to act before that Washington bully control the entire planet.

Syria and Iran are the red line which Washington cannot cross unless they seek a world war and a nuclear one at that. It looks like Syria’s people have become the American football which the Washington”giants” have been knocking down everyone and their hands in their face until Moscow and Beijing finally decided to step up to the plate.

The interest of the Syrian people is now second place. As a battleground for the American-EU Axis versus the Russia-China Axis, Syria no longer has any say but a hostage to the two Axis’ war. It may be partitioned into North and South Syria ultimately unless it becomes part of the Greater Persian Empire encompassing Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

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