Talk of a U.S. pivot toward the Asia-Pacific is being replaced with the idea of a rebalancing. Regardless, U.S. military strategy is taking on an interesting shape.
Asian security issues were prominent at this year’s annual security conference of the U.S. Army War College that I attended. U.S. experts considered sustaining U.S. engagement in East Asia especially important due to the rising power of China, North Korea’s threatening behavior, and the potential for further nuclear weapons proliferation in the region.
But the terms “Asian Pivot” and “back to Asia” were no longer in fashion, with the speakers emphasizing that the United States had never left Asia. Instead, they stressed the elements of continuity in the current administration’s strategy with those of its predecessor. The fact is that even before the recent announcement of the Pentagon’s new Asian orientation, the United States was quietly strengthening its forces in the region. For example, despite the ongoing commitments in the Middle East and Afghanistan, half of the U.S. Air Force’s top-of-the-line F-22 fighters are deployed in the Asia-Pacific region.
So what is the preferred description now, and what do we know about the likely direction of U.S. policy? The term now being used is “re-balancing,” which encompasses two separate processes – the U.S. military is rebalancing its global assets from other regions to Asia, as well as rebalancing within the Asia-Pacific region, reducing the concentration of forces from northeast Asia to a more widely distributed focus throughout the entire region.
As was evident from the diverse political backgrounds of the various speakers, a bipartisan consensus now exists among U.S. leaders regarding the key elements of U.S. foreign policy toward Asia. These included recognition of the region’s growing importance in the world, the need to maintain a U.S. military presence in Asia, and the importance of avoiding a military clash with China through a combination of deterrence and defense measures.
Speakers praised the Obama administration for rectifying some early flaws in its policy toward China, and believed that the initial effort to avoid offending China only encouraged Beijing to elevate its demands. Now the administration sells arms to Taiwan and takes other steps Beijing dislikes because it expects that the Chinese will still cooperate with the United States whenever it’s in their interests. The Obama administration also takes care to tell Beijing in advance what we will do. Not only does this avoid embarrassing public surprises in the relationship, but our publicly declaring our plans in advance makes it difficult for us not to proceed that way regardless of Beijing’s reaction.
The lack of Chinese political and security transparency does, however, complicate issues by deepening uncertainties regarding China’s goals and means. Above all, it remains unclear how committed Chinese leaders are to maintaining freedom of access to the global commons. They appear to have a 17th century view of national sovereignty in a 21st century world, where leaders accept they must sacrifice some of their national freedom of action for the greater common good of international peace and prosperity.
The Obama administration has taken pains to stress that its new Asian strategy results from a variety of developments, especially the winding down of U.S. combat operations in the Middle East and the growing importance of Asia for the world economy and, consequently, U.S. economic wellbeing, and isn’t driven by the growth of China’s economic potential and military power. The speakers dismissed such observations as polite pretense since everyone knows the U.S. rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region is about China.
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Anjaan
America’s Asia strategy is nobrainer, and simple, to continue with the British imperial goal of containing Russia on the one hand, and most importantly containing a surging China, without appearing to be hostile to it. This is being undertaken in multiple ways, to derive maximum advantage for American national interests :
1. Driving wedge between Russia and China is the most important of all, simply because Russia and China combined is a sure recipe for anglo-american failure in Asia and most part of the world.
2. Exploiting China’s territorial disputes with its neighbours and the fear of China amongst its neighbours. Roping in countries like India in an anti-China gang up is on the way, in order to have more leverage on China’s behaviour, to its own advantage.
4. Offering economic incentives to manipulate China’s behaviour is in play for atleat two decades now, which is likely to continue.
5. Last but not the least, direct military threats.
colin
I found the so called rebalance or pivot things being simple minded. We will not and be unable to have a fight with China over Taiwan, or South Korea or Japan. It is a simple arithmetic.
Now, being a so called strategist, what one should think? 20 years.
In 20 years, Russia will be back as a super power;
In 20 years, China will be a super power;
In 20 years, India will be a China of today.
All three above countries are too big to be not independent.
In 20 years, we have to deal with them all.
Ask a business man/woman, what he/she will think about China in 20 years?
Have a look what Germans are doing now.
Take a lesson from goole, how quickly can a market be lost by a simple ideology argument?
Do we really understand China?
Does China read US as an enemy?
richard
Russia,under its present system of politics,will not be a super power agin,but only regional power and that depends on its resouces,oil may run out or become obsolete.
China will be a super power but not sure whether it will be the sole super power,that depends on the Americans.
India is a regional power but may or may not become a super power.
The present communist leaders in China do see the US as a potential enemy,they do not realise that America’s Capitalist Party(ACP) have become almost indistinguishable from China’s Communist Party ,elite members of ACP have used their power to give themselves absurdly high pay(Legalised corruption); they have no accountability to shareholders; and they’ve created a new caste, which is now exercising enormous political power.
vec
Same as Singapore which is even inclusive of a family dynasty as well.Three in one.Maybe america and China can learnfrom Lee dynasty.
America is a multi party democracy
China is a one party democracy
Singapore is a dynastic one family pseudo democracy.
Pick your choice
Richard
@vec
Good point and I fully agree.
Singapore ruling party PAP does copy from US’s ACP and China’s CCP.ACP on LEEgalised corruption and CCP on how to suppress the internet,the leaders of PAP mostly warship Goldman Sachs as God.
colin
Thanks for your reply to my comment.
1. Russia will be a superpower. They have nuclear weapon, submarine, long range missile and carriers. All they need is capital and market, which explains why they want to be part of Asia. The Russia has traits to be a super power, like USA, she has stable govt, homogeneous market, established industrials, and khow how.
2. India will be a super power eventually, that is their goal.They have nuclear weapon, submarine, long range missile and carriers. All they need again,is capital and market. Unlike, Russia and USA and China, however, India has intrinsic problems with population and stability of the govt.
3. USA will be superpower no matter what will happen, except a world war. War is a dramatic way for new order. USA needs to defend her dollar and defeat terrorism. War against terror is the most expensive one for USA, it is time to define its historic status when the war in Afghanistan is closing. We should call UN to change outdated laws so US laws have higher moral basis. UN should take over the war against terror, establish an army similar to the peace-keeping and all nations contribute financially. This is not a selfish, when the world move into a new globalised community, the world is also very fragile to terror attack. World needs to learn 911 and sincerely support the war.
4. China is gaining her status through economic reform. It is still the best way for her, peaceful rise. China will be in very good relationships with both USA and Russia. China has no territory dispute with USA and needs Russia’s support to counterbalance possible pushes from USA. China needs to accept US presence in Asia, especially in Japan for historic reasons. China and USA has only one key relationship to improve, military. Once this relationship matures, there is no need for Asia pivot,or rebalance.
mike flynn
sorry Colin. i just do not see a resurgent russia. with a shrinking population, i wonder if china will not control vast swaths of siberia in 20 yrs.
regarding the UN and terrorism; you are calling for the entire organized world to declare arab-islam THE enemy. how ya gonna pull that off? (true though it may be)
mike flynn
well said regarding the confluence of ACP and CCP. not surprised we will never see that written anywhere in professional media.
colin
mike flynn,
I never said the war against terror is a war against Arabs, do not manipulate. The war against terror is the war against terrorism and extremist thinking and teaching, that is why we need to go to UN, because there is no end of this.
richard
@mike flynn
I fully agreed with you on Russia.Putin has indeed made a mistake to believe that China is friend and US is foe for Russia when China will become the biggest of Russia in ten years time.
Reboot
Never mind the US, China’s strategy is looking increasingly convoluted
see good article below
http://www.chimericawar.org/total_warfare/2012/5/What_exactly_is_China_s_maritime_strategy_
Richard
Whether “Asian Pivot” or “back to Asia” or “rebalancing”,these terms do not alter the hard fact that US is facing huge twin deficits,1% vs 99% and many other economic and social problems,its decline is inevitable.It is a matter of time.
Surprisingly,apart from Taiwan which already saw the writing on its wall,all current US major allies such as Japan,South Korea and even Isreal are not making preparations for the day when it finally arrives.
All these countries are sold on the promise of the Pentagon that things are well and under control.But are they really?
US will soon retreat from its status as the world’s policeman.
Dan
Just think of China! If they cannot restructure their economy soon then their economy will be faltering for sure.Remembemer China has no domestic comsumption market! The collapse of Japanese economy in 1980′s will pale in comparison with the soon coming down of China’s. Just wait & see!
Richard
@Dan,
Yes I do think that China is now entering a period of slower economic growth,but the expected scale of coming down may not be what some have predicted.As China is indeed at a different stage of development than Japan in 1980′.
However,this does not alter the fact that US is in a stage of decline.Whether US will be another UK,that I am not too sure,and it also depends on the Americans themselves.
Dan
Japan when its economy collapsed in the 80s was far more advanced than China today ( still a third-world country) because the former was an American close ally in the Cold War ( & got high technology transfer from the US) while the latter has not had that favored status. Currently, China is stuck in the middle-income strap & very hard for it to break through without painful but imperative economic & political reforms! So don’t count on it!The US is declining? Maybe 100 more years.
John Chan
@Dan,
China is neither exporting its model nor demonstrating any aggression; it is content with solving its own problems and lower level of incomes, with such harmless nation as well as your pessimistic conclusion on China, why are the USA and its lackeys so hostile to China and containing China with all their might like the sky is falling down. It is really puzzling about the mentality of the USA and its lackeys.