Could Beijing's ruling elite succumb to the same fate as those in the former Soviet Union? Perhaps.
Last Friday's announcement in Beijing that the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene its 18th congress on November 8 has brought much relief to those concerned that political scandals and power struggle at the very top of the Chinese government have derailed the once-in-a-decade leadership transition. Finally, the party's top leaders seemed to have agreed on what to do with the disgraced former Chongqing party boss Bo Xilai (likely off to jail) and on whom to promote to the Politburo and its more powerful standing committee.
For all the obvious reasons, China's ruling elites will do their best in the next few months to project an image of unity and self-confidence, and to convince the rest of the world that the next generation of leaders is capable of maintaining the party's political monopoly.
That is, unfortunately, a tough sell. Confidence in the party's internal cohesion and leadership has already been shaken by the Bo affair, endemic corruption, stagnation of reform in the last decade, a slowing economy, deteriorating relations with neighbors and the United States, and growing social unrest. The questions on many people's minds these days are how long the party can hold on to its power and whether the party can manage a democratic transition to save itself.
These questions are by no means the products of idle minds. By many measures, the party's rule is about to enter a decade of systemic crisis. Having governed China for 63 years, the party is approaching, within a decade, the recorded longevity of the world's most durable one-party regimes — the former Communist Party of the Soviet Union (74 years), the Kuomintang (73), and the Revolutionary Institutional Party of Mexico (71). Like a human being, an organization such as the CCP also ages.
In addition, China's rapid economic development has thrust the country past what is commonly known as the "democratic transition zone" — a range of per capita income between $1000 and $6000 (in purchasing power parity, PPP). Political scientists have observed that autocratic regimes face increasing odds of regime change as income rises. Chances of maintaining autocracy decrease further once a country's per capita income exceeds $6000 (PPP). China's has already reached $8500 (PPP). And nearly all the autocracies in the world with a higher per capita income are petro-states. So China is in an socioeconomic environment in which autocratic governance becomes increasingly illegitimate and untenable. Anyone who is unconvinced of this point should take a look at Chinese Weibo (or microblogs) to get a sense of what ordinary Chinese think of their government.
Thus, the answer to the question of the durability of one-party rule in China is clear: its prospects are doomed.
Photo Credit: Wikicommons
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Jacob
There is no possible way that the Chinese Communist Party will lose power. The communist party is way too strong. Over 80,000,000 people are in the communist party. My father was born in China, and he tells me all of this. I don’t read it off the Internet, I ask my father.
Aaron
The only difference between China's government and that of the US or other major western powers is that their autocracy is more apparent.
The US is essentially a plutocracy where uber-weathy power brokers sponsor and own all the political players in a race. They care not who wins an election – either way "their man" gets in. The Republican-Democrat facade is the best thing going for American autocracy. Fool the people into believing they have a choice when in reality, both major parties draw upon the same pool of advisors and financiers and on issues of real importance in the big picture they are nearly identical in those policies which are implemented. Foreign policy is nearly identical in both Republican and Democrat administrations. Sure, the rhetoric changes, but the actual decisions and actions made by administrations differ very little from one to the next. Foreign policy, especially military policy barely missed a beat in the Bush to Obama transition, and yet the American people were wholeheartedly fooled into believing they actually were getting change, which is the mechanism by which this puppet-show autocracy sustains a perpetual repression of dissent.
So, if the communist party of China "falls" it will only be to metamorphisize into a more "sustainable model", rule by an inner circle of plutocratic elite by proxy of a ficticious democratic process in in the minds of the masses, which is exactly what the US has had for decades.
Jeremy
Just transcending all the politics-induced comments and sentiment right now, and thinking like a kid, would anyone else find it something to facepalm about if China became a second USSR?
It's quite a nice mental exercise to imagine how China would be split. I doubt all 56-or-so minorities would all break off. But I don't know… Tibet, South (Inner) Mongolia, New Manchuria, Bouxcuengh, Uyghuristan, Hong Kong, Macau, Shu (Sichuan), Yeonbyeon, Ngo (Canton), Russian China, and China Proper…?
I dunno, just a random thought that passed through my head.
Arthur Borges
China has 500 million folks with Internet access but then there are the other 900 million. It is fair to assume they are largely low-income rurals and the awfully elderly, among whom Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai remain venerated figures.
If you look at Chinese history, it is the low-income rurals who topple dynasties; urban dissidents may be the darlings of a rainbow of western corporate bodies and individuals, but that's still pretty much about all they're worth.
Sin Lok
All the CCP payed dogs are all here to defend their evil paymasters.
Bankotsu
And you are whose dog?
scdad07
Gordon Chang predicted 'Collapse of China' the past 12 years or so. Good for him to double, triple …down in 2012.
Time after time again, ill wishers got disappointed.
filipino defender
Nope its gonna happen sir pretty soon too
Dr. Rice
The CCP is doomed as we know it, however, the CCP has done what has been done for the past 2000 years in China: suck up all the talent in the country. Very little talent exists outside of it, certainly not on the levels of replacing the even a fraction of the bureaucracy that is needed to govern China. If the one-party system fails, and China somehow manages to become a democracy, the same people are going to be in-charge of the nation that ruled under the CCP and the past 2000 years since the Qin unification: the Mandarins.
Nothing changes in the Middle Kingdom. The same people are going to rule at the top and that is always going to be the case.
John Chan
@Dr. Rice,
Other than anarchy, there are always somebody rule at the top regardless the political system, one party or not, communist or not.
What do you mean the same people to rule at the top in China? China is a republic and all leaders have limited terms in office, it is same all over the world, why do you single out China to bash?
If CCP locks up all the talent, then who are those people building China up to the 2nd position in the world in economy? What are trying to say? Your thought seems incoherent.
John Chan
@Dr. Rice,
Other than anarchy, there are always somebody rule at the top regardless the political system, one party or not, communist or not.
What do you mean the same people to rule at the top in China? China is a republic and all leaders have limited terms in office, it is same all over the world, why do you single out China to bash?
If CCP locks up all the talent, then whom are those people building China up to the 2nd position in the world in economy? It seems your comment is full of fallacy.
Tibetan Mastiff
The CCP, the CPC, PLA, and all the state organs of China will ultimately pay the price for the 60 plus years of totalitarian rule over its people, including its brutal occupation of East Turkestan and Tibet. I am astonished by the multitude of academics, apologists, capitalists, and pundits from all walks who have overlooked the crimes that China and its government have committed. You think Lhasa in 2008 was a riot? Wait until you see what is coming. Tiananmen in 1989? Uyghur uprising of 2009? China is a ticking time bomb on all fronts; and now that the Chinese economy is slowing, prepare yourself for an ever more vocal and emboldened front of 'ethnic minorities'. No, China is not the Soviet Union, but it still prone to the same illnesses of collapsing regimes. Yes -the CCP is on the verge of collapse! Diayou Islands? Han Chinese Nationalism? I guess the Party would be wise to take a nod from Mao and enflame racism, nationalism, and brutality for the sake of saving itself from the masses. For those of you who worry about America and our government, please remember that you didnt have to jump over the Great Firewall this morning to read the Diplomat.
Stan Lippmann
Just an example of how ridiculous all this China-bashing is: thediplomat.com is accessible here in China. As for Taiwan, the US is breaking its 1982 to stop arming Taiwan. And the ins than the Americans. It's really all over for the dumb down Americans. That's why Chinese immigrants like it so much, because it's easy to compete with the stupid Americans, especially when you can easieasier to live in America if you are first generation. You are barely culturally literate so you are blind to the failings of America. The reverse may be true for an American in China. But there are objective realities which must come into play. China has been around for a long time (40,000 years?). During this time, the fools have been more weeded out, so the average intelligence is 10 points higher that that of Westerners. Meanwhile, there is a conscious plot in the west to dumb people down to the level of the Africans, 20 points below normal, to turn the Westerners into slaves. There is an expanding gap in mathematics. The Americans are going to drop the standards two full grade levels so that the semi-retarded black kids can graduate from high school. The Chinese are already starting to produce more scientific publications than the Americans. It's really all over for the dumb down Americans. That's why Chinese immigrants like it so much, because it's easy to compete with the stupid Americans, especially when you can easily ignore the cultural problems. Also, your egos can't admit that you are just picking over the bones of America like vultures, and deeper in your mind you know you can always jump ship and go back to China. For the first time, most Chinese college students are returning to China, since they can see the writing on the wall.
apiascik
There are a number of holes in Professor's Pei's argument, some of them provided by the text of the article itself:
"a slowing economy, deteriorating relations with neighbord and the United States, and growing social unrest…"
The David Cohen article on the seige of Wukan, linked to in this sentence, basically comes to the conclusion that the Wukan uprising did not represent a threat to the Party, that local officials took the blame for what happened, and that the citizens of Wukan remained loyal to the Party. In this instance, the Party gained political points by being seen as the "white night" that rescues local citizens from corrupt local officials. Hardly an existential threat to their rule.
"By many measures, the party's rule is about to enter a decade of systemic crisis."
Here, the author cites an article that he wrote. Usually this isn't a big deal, but given Professor Pei 's articles are always drawing the conclusion that the Party's days are numbered (a quality shared by another CCP basher, Gordon Chang), his citing his own article (vs finding corroboration from other China experts) doesn't bolster his argument.
"China is in an socioeconomic environment in which autocratic governance becomes increasingly illegitimate and untenable. Anyone who is unconvinced of this point should take a look at Chinese Weibo…to get a sense of what ordinary Chinese think of their government."
Newsflash…people in the West are just as fed up with their elected officials as Chinese are with their unelected officials. Recent polls by Gallup put Congress' approval rating at 10%, an all-time low. Using Professor Pei's logic, we should conclude that American's are about to storm Capitol Hill in the same manner that the French stormed the Bastille. It just doesn't follow.
Like many Americans, I would love to see China transition to democracy. Instead of engaging in crystal-ball gazing diatribes, trying to predict a future that is far from certain, Professor Pei needs to argue from the standpoint of principles as to why a way of life based on freedom, liberty, and the rule of law would be better for the Chinese people, and the rest of the world.