The answer to the question of how a one-party regime can manage its own political transformation to save itself is more interesting and complicated.
Essentially, there are two paths for such regimes: the Soviet route to certain self-destruction, and the Taiwan-Mexican route to self-renewal and transformation.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, top CCP leaders have resolved not to repeat the Soviet tragedy. Their policy has been, therefore, resisting all forms of political reform. The result is, unfortunately, an increasingly sclerotic party, captured by special interests, and corrupt and decadent opportunists like Bo. It may have over 80 million members, but most of them join the party to exploit the pecuniary benefits it provides. They themselves have become a special interest group disconnected with Chinese society. If the fall of the Soviet Communist Party (CPSU) offered any real lessons, they are definitely not the official Chinese narrative that Gorbachev's political reforms brought down the party. The sad truth is: the Soviet regime was too sick to be revived by the mid-1980s because it had resisted reforms for two decades during the rule of Brezhnev. More importantly, the CCP should know that, like the millions of the members of the CPSU, its rank and file are almost certain to defect in times of a regime crisis. When the CPSU fell, there was not a single instance of loyal party members coming to the defense of the regime. Such a fate awaits the CCP.
That leaves the CCP with only one viable option: the Taiwan-Mexican path of self-renewal and transformation. The one-party regimes in Taiwan and Mexico are, without doubt, the most successful ones in transforming themselves into multi-party democracies in the last quarter century. Although the stories of their transition to democracy are different and complex, we can glean four key insights into their successes.
First, leaders in Taiwan and Mexico confronted a legitimacy crisis in the 1980s and realized that one-party regimes were doomed. They did not deceive themselves with illusions or lies.
Second, both acted while their regimes were stronger than the opposition and before they were thoroughly discredited, thus giving them the ability to manage a gradual transition.
Third, their leaders centralized power and practiced inner-party dictatorship, not inner-party democracy, in order to overcome the opposition of the conservatives within the regime. In one-party regimes, inner-party democracy will surely lead to an open split among the ruling elites, thus fatally weakening the a reformist regime's ability to manage the transition. Additionally, making the entire political system more democratic, mainly through competitive elections in cities and states, will provide the ruling elites an opportunity to learn a critical skill: seeking support from voters and winning elections. Such skills cannot be learned through the dubious exercise of inner-party democracy, which is simply another name for elite bargaining and manipulation.
Fourth, a moderate democratic opposition is the best friend and greatest asset a reformist one-party regime has. Such an opposition is a negotiating partner and can help the regime maintain transitional stability. It can also offer much better terms protecting the interests of the ruling elites and even helping them avoid jail.
When we look at the rewards reaped by the KMT and the PRI, they included not only favorable terms for exiting power (except for President Salinas, who was forced into exile because of corruption), none of the senior leaders faced criminal prosecution. Most importantly, both the KMT and PRI managed to recapture the presidency, the seat of political power in both countries, after spending two terms in opposition.
But can the CCP actually learn from the KMT or the PRI?
Its willingness aside, the CCP faces an additional hurdle. It is still a totalitarian party, not an authoritarian party. The difference between a totalitarian party and an authoritarian party is that the former is far more deeply and extensively embedded in the state and the economy. The CCP controls the military, the judiciary, the bureaucracy, and the economy to a far greater extent that the KMT or the PRI. Extricating a totalitarian party from a state is far more difficult. In fact, such a feat has never been tried successfully. In the former Soviet Union, it led to regime collapse. In Eastern Europe, democratic revolutions did not give such regimes a chance to try.
So the task for China's new rulers is truly daunting. Their first order of business is actually not to plunge into a Gorbachev-style political perestroika, but the de-totalitarianization of the Chinese state and the transformation of the CCP into another KMT or PRI. Without taking this intermediate step immediately, the CCP may find that a Soviet-style collapse is its only future.
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Jacob
There is no possible way that the Chinese Communist Party will lose power. The communist party is way too strong. Over 80,000,000 people are in the communist party. My father was born in China, and he tells me all of this. I don’t read it off the Internet, I ask my father.
Aaron
The only difference between China's government and that of the US or other major western powers is that their autocracy is more apparent.
The US is essentially a plutocracy where uber-weathy power brokers sponsor and own all the political players in a race. They care not who wins an election – either way "their man" gets in. The Republican-Democrat facade is the best thing going for American autocracy. Fool the people into believing they have a choice when in reality, both major parties draw upon the same pool of advisors and financiers and on issues of real importance in the big picture they are nearly identical in those policies which are implemented. Foreign policy is nearly identical in both Republican and Democrat administrations. Sure, the rhetoric changes, but the actual decisions and actions made by administrations differ very little from one to the next. Foreign policy, especially military policy barely missed a beat in the Bush to Obama transition, and yet the American people were wholeheartedly fooled into believing they actually were getting change, which is the mechanism by which this puppet-show autocracy sustains a perpetual repression of dissent.
So, if the communist party of China "falls" it will only be to metamorphisize into a more "sustainable model", rule by an inner circle of plutocratic elite by proxy of a ficticious democratic process in in the minds of the masses, which is exactly what the US has had for decades.
Jeremy
Just transcending all the politics-induced comments and sentiment right now, and thinking like a kid, would anyone else find it something to facepalm about if China became a second USSR?
It's quite a nice mental exercise to imagine how China would be split. I doubt all 56-or-so minorities would all break off. But I don't know… Tibet, South (Inner) Mongolia, New Manchuria, Bouxcuengh, Uyghuristan, Hong Kong, Macau, Shu (Sichuan), Yeonbyeon, Ngo (Canton), Russian China, and China Proper…?
I dunno, just a random thought that passed through my head.
Arthur Borges
China has 500 million folks with Internet access but then there are the other 900 million. It is fair to assume they are largely low-income rurals and the awfully elderly, among whom Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai remain venerated figures.
If you look at Chinese history, it is the low-income rurals who topple dynasties; urban dissidents may be the darlings of a rainbow of western corporate bodies and individuals, but that's still pretty much about all they're worth.
Sin Lok
All the CCP payed dogs are all here to defend their evil paymasters.
Bankotsu
And you are whose dog?
scdad07
Gordon Chang predicted 'Collapse of China' the past 12 years or so. Good for him to double, triple …down in 2012.
Time after time again, ill wishers got disappointed.
filipino defender
Nope its gonna happen sir pretty soon too
Dr. Rice
The CCP is doomed as we know it, however, the CCP has done what has been done for the past 2000 years in China: suck up all the talent in the country. Very little talent exists outside of it, certainly not on the levels of replacing the even a fraction of the bureaucracy that is needed to govern China. If the one-party system fails, and China somehow manages to become a democracy, the same people are going to be in-charge of the nation that ruled under the CCP and the past 2000 years since the Qin unification: the Mandarins.
Nothing changes in the Middle Kingdom. The same people are going to rule at the top and that is always going to be the case.
John Chan
@Dr. Rice,
Other than anarchy, there are always somebody rule at the top regardless the political system, one party or not, communist or not.
What do you mean the same people to rule at the top in China? China is a republic and all leaders have limited terms in office, it is same all over the world, why do you single out China to bash?
If CCP locks up all the talent, then who are those people building China up to the 2nd position in the world in economy? What are trying to say? Your thought seems incoherent.
John Chan
@Dr. Rice,
Other than anarchy, there are always somebody rule at the top regardless the political system, one party or not, communist or not.
What do you mean the same people to rule at the top in China? China is a republic and all leaders have limited terms in office, it is same all over the world, why do you single out China to bash?
If CCP locks up all the talent, then whom are those people building China up to the 2nd position in the world in economy? It seems your comment is full of fallacy.
Tibetan Mastiff
The CCP, the CPC, PLA, and all the state organs of China will ultimately pay the price for the 60 plus years of totalitarian rule over its people, including its brutal occupation of East Turkestan and Tibet. I am astonished by the multitude of academics, apologists, capitalists, and pundits from all walks who have overlooked the crimes that China and its government have committed. You think Lhasa in 2008 was a riot? Wait until you see what is coming. Tiananmen in 1989? Uyghur uprising of 2009? China is a ticking time bomb on all fronts; and now that the Chinese economy is slowing, prepare yourself for an ever more vocal and emboldened front of 'ethnic minorities'. No, China is not the Soviet Union, but it still prone to the same illnesses of collapsing regimes. Yes -the CCP is on the verge of collapse! Diayou Islands? Han Chinese Nationalism? I guess the Party would be wise to take a nod from Mao and enflame racism, nationalism, and brutality for the sake of saving itself from the masses. For those of you who worry about America and our government, please remember that you didnt have to jump over the Great Firewall this morning to read the Diplomat.
Stan Lippmann
Just an example of how ridiculous all this China-bashing is: thediplomat.com is accessible here in China. As for Taiwan, the US is breaking its 1982 to stop arming Taiwan. And the ins than the Americans. It's really all over for the dumb down Americans. That's why Chinese immigrants like it so much, because it's easy to compete with the stupid Americans, especially when you can easieasier to live in America if you are first generation. You are barely culturally literate so you are blind to the failings of America. The reverse may be true for an American in China. But there are objective realities which must come into play. China has been around for a long time (40,000 years?). During this time, the fools have been more weeded out, so the average intelligence is 10 points higher that that of Westerners. Meanwhile, there is a conscious plot in the west to dumb people down to the level of the Africans, 20 points below normal, to turn the Westerners into slaves. There is an expanding gap in mathematics. The Americans are going to drop the standards two full grade levels so that the semi-retarded black kids can graduate from high school. The Chinese are already starting to produce more scientific publications than the Americans. It's really all over for the dumb down Americans. That's why Chinese immigrants like it so much, because it's easy to compete with the stupid Americans, especially when you can easily ignore the cultural problems. Also, your egos can't admit that you are just picking over the bones of America like vultures, and deeper in your mind you know you can always jump ship and go back to China. For the first time, most Chinese college students are returning to China, since they can see the writing on the wall.
apiascik
There are a number of holes in Professor's Pei's argument, some of them provided by the text of the article itself:
"a slowing economy, deteriorating relations with neighbord and the United States, and growing social unrest…"
The David Cohen article on the seige of Wukan, linked to in this sentence, basically comes to the conclusion that the Wukan uprising did not represent a threat to the Party, that local officials took the blame for what happened, and that the citizens of Wukan remained loyal to the Party. In this instance, the Party gained political points by being seen as the "white night" that rescues local citizens from corrupt local officials. Hardly an existential threat to their rule.
"By many measures, the party's rule is about to enter a decade of systemic crisis."
Here, the author cites an article that he wrote. Usually this isn't a big deal, but given Professor Pei 's articles are always drawing the conclusion that the Party's days are numbered (a quality shared by another CCP basher, Gordon Chang), his citing his own article (vs finding corroboration from other China experts) doesn't bolster his argument.
"China is in an socioeconomic environment in which autocratic governance becomes increasingly illegitimate and untenable. Anyone who is unconvinced of this point should take a look at Chinese Weibo…to get a sense of what ordinary Chinese think of their government."
Newsflash…people in the West are just as fed up with their elected officials as Chinese are with their unelected officials. Recent polls by Gallup put Congress' approval rating at 10%, an all-time low. Using Professor Pei's logic, we should conclude that American's are about to storm Capitol Hill in the same manner that the French stormed the Bastille. It just doesn't follow.
Like many Americans, I would love to see China transition to democracy. Instead of engaging in crystal-ball gazing diatribes, trying to predict a future that is far from certain, Professor Pei needs to argue from the standpoint of principles as to why a way of life based on freedom, liberty, and the rule of law would be better for the Chinese people, and the rest of the world.