When it came to China, Secretary of State John Kerry’s confirmation hearing touched on a little bit of everything. Here is what he said he wants:
- To compete with China economically in Africa—this will be tough given the extraordinary government resources China pours into its trade and investment effort in the continent;
- To use the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as leverage with China to ensure commonly accepted rules of the road on trade—of course the TPP has to move forward for this to happen;
- To cooperate with China more closely on North Korea—that’s been an item on the U.S. wish list for twenty years…but the chances are better than ever before
- And to work together with China on the full range of regional and global challenges, such as climate change. Excellent, but it would really help if Secretary Kerry could persuade his former colleagues in Congress to pass climate legislation here at home.
What has garnered all the attention, however, is what the Secretary said with regard to the pivot:
"I’m not convinced that increased military ramp-up is critical yet. I’m not convinced of that. That’s something I’d want to look at very carefully when and if you folks confirm me and I can get in there and sort of dig into this a little deeper. But we have a lot more bases out there than any other nation in the world, including China today. We have a lot more forces out there than any other nation in the world, including China today. And we’ve just augmented the president’s announcement in Australia with additional Marines. You know, the Chinese take a look at that and say, what’s the United States doing? They trying to circle us? What’s going on? And so, you know, every action has its reaction. It’s the old — you know, it’s not just the law of physics; it’s the law of politics and diplomacy. I think we have to be thoughtful about, you know, sort of how we go forward."
Secretary Kerry’s apparent unease with the pivot has unsurprisingly set the Chinese press all atwitter and given Chinese analysts some hope that President Obama has appointed a kinder, gentler Secretary of State. The major Chinese state-supported newspapers—the Global Times, People’s Daily, and Xinhua—highlighted his remarks on the pivot and then offered some thoughts on Kerry’s likely diplomatic approach:
China Institute of International Studies’ Ruan Zongze: “Compared with Clinton’s tough diplomatic approach, Kerry as a moderate democrat is expected to stress the role of bilateral or multilateral dialogues”;
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Ni Feng: Kerry’s “diplomatic measures” will “greatly embody Obama’s concepts.”
In reviewing Secretary Kerry’s congressional voting record, Chinese observers also noted that he “generally voted in favor of bills conducive to promoting the development China-U.S. relations and generally voted against or expressed different opinions for bills not conducive to China-U.S. relations.” Overall, as People’s Daily observed, “Kerry stresses more on coordination rather than confrontation in foreign relations…”
Secretary Kerry does not, of course, stand alone in his questioning of the pivot. CSIS Senior Associate Edward Luttwak recently suggested in a panel discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations that the United States should refrain from putting itself front and center in Asia; instead, it should give the other countries in the region time to coalesce among themselves. This is an attractive idea—it conserves U.S. resources and keeps the United States out of Beijing’s crosshairs, at least a little bit. However, it’s not entirely practical. Some of our allies—such as Japan and South Korea—don’t actually get along that well right now and may need a gentle push from the United States. Also, a relatively inchoate set of cross-cutting alliances or joint military exercises in the region is quite different from a well-thought-out, well-designed regional security effort that can mobilize assets efficiently.
By suggesting that the pivot may be out of favor, Secretary Kerry has also drawn into question U.S. credibility. Officials and analysts abroad have already raised doubts about U.S. staying power in the Asia-Pacific; Secretary Kerry’s doubts will only add fuel to the fire.
And Secretary Kerry might recast his “action-reaction” narrative. For most observers outside China, it was Chinese assertiveness that was the action, while the U.S. pivot was, in large measure, the reaction.
Secretary Kerry understandably wants to make his mark on U.S. foreign policy over the next few years, and he appears to be setting himself a challenging agenda, including making progress on a free trade agreement with Europe and restarting the Middle East peace talks. However, the original logic of the pivot—ensuring security in the Asia-Pacific and taking advantage of the region’s economic dynamism through a free trade agreement—still stands.
It’s too early to pivot away.
Elizabeth C. Economy is C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is an expert on Chinese domestic and foreign policy and U.S.-China relations and author of the award-winning book, 'The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Future.' She blogs at Asia Unbound, where this piece originally appeared.

Carlo
Africa, that's where the real game is going to be played. The US and Europe are entering it through the confrontation with Islamist extremists, but ultimately African battles will become proxies for the confrontation between China and the West. And the seas surrounding China – China doesn't seem to be making many friends out there, and oh yeah, lets see China try to grab some of that Siberia, too. I think that if China just entered into the current world order as an honest participant, its undeniable potential would earn (not win) it a place of preeminence over just a few decades. There aren't enough resources left for the industrial world to be sending half of them to the bottom of the ocean anymore. We all have bigger battles to face.
denk
*Some of our allies—such as Japan and South Korea—don’t actually get along that well right now and may need a gentle push from the United States*
are these *democracies*, are they even sovereign ?
+when I and several other Americans called the Korean
Embassy in Washington to register our concerns, we all
received similar versions of the same prepared response, “Don’t
call us; call the U.S. State or Defense Departments; they are the
ones who are pressuring us to build this base.+
http://www.fpif.org/articles/naval_base_tears_apart_korean_village
Yasuhiko Yoshida, professor of international relations at Osaka University
+Japan is a puppet, a satellite country. Japan is too obedient to
the US; too loyal politically, economically and in security affairs+
http://www.newsinsider.org/editorials/the_three_legged_stool.html
denk
truth dont need no *moderation*
Nakahiro
@ Admiral Cheng. The only thing CCP can be proud of its "business" is the procurement from PC that a poor Chinese slave worker has to place orders for second hand technology from the Soviet era.This was paid through an Ebay like auction website. BUT IT NOW! Delivery free.
Kerry's remark is to remind China that China does not do what it wants, China should not bully its neighbours. When you have the backing of the majority of the international community, you play by their rules. You don't fight them, you join them or shut up. If you can't defeat the enemy you join them ok much better than bloodshed. You cannot possibly think China can win a war against the West, when CCP stirs up trouble in Asia, you'll have a repeat of UN and the Western intervention on another war and this time we'll finish it. Massive loss of life is acceptable if that means it bring stability in China once and for all just like Germany and my beloved Japan. NK will get whats coming if its not careful too. both these countries are trouble for Asia now and the Filipinos and Vietnamese are not getting agitated for no reason.
talking points
good thinking, except China has veto power in UN. Japan does not!
Admiral Cheng
The American imperialist finally got our message and realized that its time they run back to their home backyard. We always believed, China must be proud of our military buildup to show the imperialists we mean business. Kerry's remark is the first sign that the Americans are cracking to Chinese pressure. Soon their policy Vis a Vis China will break like Humpty Dumpty.
nirvana
"The truth is China shouldn’t be worried about containment, it should be worried about overreaching and that’s because its increased assertiveness has done more to remind its neighbors of the value of America’s presence in the Asia-Pacific region than anything our diplomats could have done on their own"
(John Kerry, 2012)
Bankotsu
How many carriers does China need? What are your views on that? My own view is that China needs a minimum of 12 carriers before the U.S will divide up the pacific with China.
China proposed division of Pacific, Indian Ocean regions, we declined: US Admiral
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/china-proposed-division-of-pacific-indian-ocean-regions-we-declined-us-admiral/459851
Now China only has one untested carrier, obviously the U.S won't take China as a serious naval power for now. But in 20 to 30 years after the 12 carriers are built, China and U.S may agree to divide up pacific.