Play The Diplomat‘s Quiz: July 19, 2015 Edition

What many observers of the Iran talks have been pleasantly surprised by is the sophistication of the mechanism included in the final deal that could allow the United States and its three P5+1 European allies to reinstate sanctions against Iran if Tehran is found to be violation of the terms of the agreement. Notably, this “snap back” mechanism would allow the United States to reinstate U.N. sanctions without the acquiescence of Russia and China (despite their United Nations Security Council vetoes).

On July 16, Japan’s House of Representatives (Lower House) passed a legislative package that is critical for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s national security agenda. The bill now goes to its House of Councillors (Upper House) for consideration and vote.

The deliberation process turned out to be far rockier than Abe anticipated. In particular, the discourse on the security legislation turned increasingly confrontational after June 4, when three respected constitutional scholars who testified at the special committee on constitution all stated that they believed that the proposed legislation package was unconstitutional.

Earlier this week, media reports noted that the Philippines is set to reopen a former U.S. naval facility in Subic Bay from early 2016, the first time it has served as a military base in more than two decades. Defense department spokesman Peter Galvez said Thursday that the Philippines would soon station aircraft and naval vessels at Subic Bay, which served as one of the United States’ biggest overseas bases until it closed in 1992 after a close vote in the Philippine legislature.

China and Sri Lanka concluded their second-ever joint military exercise last week. Exercise Silk Route 2015, likely named so for its concordance with China’s Maritime Silk Road initiative, in which Sri Lanka is a partner, incorporated a 43-member Chinese People’s Liberation Army contingent and soldiers from the Sri Lankan army. According to a statement released by the Sri Lankan Ministry of Defense, the Sri Lankan Army’s Commando Regiment and Special Forces participated in the exercises, which ran from June 22 to July 13, 2015. The exercise demonstrates the continuing deepening of security ties between Beijing and Colombo, despite the election of a new government in Sri Lanka in January which appeared to be less receptive to Chinese influence on the island that the previous government, which was led by Mahinda Rajapaksa.

On Thursday, India and Myanmar announced that they would deepen their defense cooperation. A joint consultative commission, chaired by Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Burmese Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin in New Delhi announced a defense assistance program which will see India help the Burmese Army and Navy modernize. Myanmar has been an important peg in India’s decades-old ‘Look East’ Policy, which the current Indian government recast as an ‘Act East’ policy some months ago. Defense cooperation between the two neighbors has grown since Myanmar’s political reforms under President Thein Sein, which resulted in Myanmar becoming less exclusively reliant on China.

China’s slumping stock and property markets have sparked widespread fears over the health of Asia’s biggest economy. But with the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data from Beijing beating forecasts, have analysts got it wrong again on China?

The latest China surprise occurred Wednesday, when China reported 7 percent annualized GDP growth in the second quarter, in line with Beijing’s target and ahead of market expectations of a 6.8 percent gain.

The stronger economic data resulted from a rise in industrial production, up 6.8 percent in the June quarter compared to 6.1 percent in May, while retail sales expanded by 10.6 percent and fixed asset investment increased by 11.4 percent.

Last week, Vietnam and Belarus signed a new military technology accord in another boost to their defense relationship.

According to the Vietnamese army newspaper, the conclusion of the military technical cooperation agreement came on July 9 during the meeting of the existing Vietnam-Belarus inter-governmental joint committee on military technology cooperation.

While the exact contents of the pact are not publicly known, sources indicate that the focus is on telecommunications for the Vietnam People’s Army (PAVN). According to IHS Jane’s, it will also emphasizetraining PAVN technicians and engineers attached to the PAVN-run military industrial complex at state-owned Belarus defense industrial facilities.

Out of all of the flashpoints in the South China Sea, the Second Thomas Shoal is one of the more bizarre. The atoll, claimed by the Philippines (where it’s known as Ayungin Shoal) and China (which calls it Ren’ai Reef), is uninhabitable, but does host a small contingent of Philippine soldiers. This crew (generally consisting of eight or nine) lives not on the shoal itself but on board the BRP Sierre Madre – a Philippine naval vessel intentionally grounded on the reef in 1999, four years after China occupied nearby Mischief Reef (also claimed by the Philippines). For the past 16 years, the vessel has remained there, slowly rusting away in the South China Sea while acting a bastion of Philippines control over the shoal, which Manila claims is part of its exclusive economic zone.

The Philippines is now reinforcing the hull and deck of the ship, according to Reuters, using small fishing boats to slip “cement, steel, cabling, and welding equipment” past watchful Chinese coastguard vessels. Officers who have visited the vessel portrayed the work as merely trying to maintain the ship’s current state. “We know China has been waiting for the ship to disintegrate but we are doing everything to hold it together,” one officer told Reuters.

Pakistan has recently issued a directive to grant its national language and lingua franca, the literary vehicle of South Asian Islam, Urdu, official status. Perhaps inspired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s use of Hindi on the world stage instead of English–common among elites in both Pakistan and India–the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told the Supreme Court of Pakistan that it will shortly become mandatory for government officials to deliver speeches in Urdu, whether in Pakistan or abroad. Nawaz Sharif signed an executive order to that effect on July 6.

Iran will make the following concessions as per the final deal:

• Reduce its uranium stockpiles by 98 percent, keeping no more than 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium (LEU) on hand.
• Iran will be permitted to enrich uranium using its first-generation IR-1 centrifuges and only up to a low-enrichment level of 3.67 percent.
• Iran will reduce its centrifuge count from around 19,000 at the time of the signing of the agreement to 6,104 over the next ten years. All these centrifuges will have to be the older IR-1 centrifuges. No enrichment activity will take place at the underground Fordow facility, but 1044 centrifuges will remain there for scientific research purposes. Natanz will be the sole facility for any uranium enrichment activity.
• Iran’s IR-40 heavy water reactor at Arak will be redesigned to prevent the production of weapons-grade plutonium (uranium and plutonium provide two different paths to a nuclear bomb). Iranian work on new heavy-water reactors will be forbidden for at least 15 years. Spent fuel from Arak will be shipped out of Iran indefinitely.
• Iran will submit to monitoring by international inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). IAEA inspectors will continuously monitor all Iranian declared nuclear facilities, and also verify that all fissile material within Iran is accounted for.
• Overall, the technical concessions from the Iranian side are expected to take Iran’s “breakout” time (i.e., that time that it would take Iran to acquire enough fissile material for a single nuclear bomb) up to one year instead of the 2-3 months that was expected without a deal.