Play The Diplomat’s Quiz: October 16, 2016 Edition

At the 18th Party Congress, for example, not only did we end up with new faces on the PSC, we also witnessed a reduction in the size of the PSC from nine to seven.  Moreover, as far as Xi is concerned, he has already demonstrated a willingness to break with tradition (e.g., his arrest of former PSC member Zhou Yongkang), and there isspeculation that he may be intending to alter or ignore other norms (e.g., raising the retirement age to keep Wang Qishan on as head of the CDIC for another term).

After years of pushing for membership, Timor-Leste is now ready to become the 11th member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The process of Timor-Leste’s accession into ASEAN has been ongoing for a number of years. The country was recognized as an ASEAN observer in 2002 and joined the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2005. Southeast Asia’s newest state submitted a formal application to join the regional bloc in 2011.

The BRICS jamboree comes to Goa this week, with India hosting the 8th summit of a grouping which has grown into geopolitical engagement of limited significance. Jim O’Neill, an investment analyst at Goldman Sachs, came up with the term ‘BRICs’ fifteen years ago and soon thereafter the term became more than just an economic construct as emerging powers in the form of Brazil, Russia, India, and China started negotiating the terms of the post-American world order. The first summit was held in 2009 and South Africa was invited to join the grouping a year later, making it officially the BRICS. The last summit India had hosted was in 2012 in New Delhi.

One of the most concrete speeches delivered at this years’ Xiangshan Forum, the annual regional security conference organized by China and held earlier this week in Beijing, was made by Liu Zhenmin,  vice minister at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He clearly called for the “building of an Asia-Pacific security architecture”.

STRATCOM’s statement regarding the October 14 test offers little additional information regarding the test. Given that STRATCOM was able to detect a launch, it is unlikely the missile detonated immediately upon launch and acquired reasonable altitude before encountering failure, potentially giving North Korea useful data in the process. Wire reports note that the “projectile reportedly exploded soon after liftoff.”

Moreover, as Nathan J. Hunt observed after the test, the launch location of Kusong is notable. Hunt notes that North Korea “has been conducting test launches from the countries East Coast near Wonsan, but yesterday DPRK attempted  launch of a Musudan missile came from the area of Kusong.”

We also don’t know the trajectory of North Korea’s planned launch. As Hunt observes, there are really only two possibilities here that would have kept the missile out of third-country airspace in the event of a successful test. North Korea could have been going for either a lofted or regular trajectory launch into the Yellow Sea (like it has done with its satellite launch vehicle launches). Alternatively, Pyongyang could have been attempting an west-to-east overflight of North Korean territory into the Sea of Japan. In August, a North Korean Nodong intermediate-range ballistic missile splashed down in Japan’s exclusive economic zone for the first time ever, drawing a sharp reaction from Japan.

Thailand’s venerated king, Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world’s longest-reigning monarch, has died at the age of 88, the Thai Royal Palace announced this evening. King Bhumibol passed away at Bangkok’s Siriraj hospital on Thursday.

The palace did not give a reason for his death. “His Majesty has passed away at Siriraj Hospital peacefully,” a statement said, adding he died at 3:52 p.m. local time (8:52 a.m. GMT). King Rama IX spent the last seven years at Siriraj Hospital for a variety of ailments, including kidney and lung problems. The palace recently said the octogenarian had been in an “unstable” condition for several days after receiving hemiodialysis treatment.

On Thursday evening, hundreds of people starting filling the center of Siriraj Hospital to pray and give respect to their King. An announcement by the royal palace was planned originally for 5:30 p.m., but was delayed until 8:52 p.m. That announcement came as a shock for everyone, as the news of the passing of the King finally swept through the crowd, wails of grief and crying washed through the hospital grounds as the realization finally set in that their King had finally passed away.

In the wake of the deplorable attacks against the Indian Army in Uri, Jammu & Kashmir, tensions in the New Delhi-Islamabad bilateral, which were already running high over the preceding weeks, escalated further. In addition to pursuing Islamabad’s diplomatic isolation within the region, India indicated that it will review Pakistan’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) status, granted to Pakistan under its World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations. Surprisingly, India also indicated that it will ‘review’ the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the one bilateral treaty between the two countries that has stood the test of time – even through the most difficult of times in the relationship.

Reviewing the IWT does not automatically imply its abrogation. Yet, it would be pertinent to assess two factors: Are there any downsides to withdrawing the MFN status or abrogating the IWT, for India? If yes, what are they? Are they manageable?

While there appears to be a high degree of public support in India for withdrawing the MFN status and rescinding the IWT, one could expect New Delhi to not abrogate the IWT.

On October 6, Cyril Almeida, a senior Pakistani journalist, published an article in the English-language daily Dawn entitled “Act against militants or face international isolation, civilians tell military.” The article narrated an intense scene of heated debate between the country’s top civil and military leaders, held a few days ago.

So far, the Pakistani government has rejected the story three times by calling it “amalgamation of fiction and fabrication.” In addition to its rejections, the government has put Almeida’s name on the Exit Control List (ECL), barring him from foreign travel. Dawn, meanwhile, continues to defend the story by arguing that the published material was fact-checked and crosschecked with multiple sources to ensure its credibility.

On Wednesday, October 5, the International Court of Justice decided against proceeding with the Marshall Island’s nuclear disarmament case, which was lodged earlier against India, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom. The small Pacific Island nation had entered proceedings at the ICJ earlier this year at the Hague-based court, which is the primary judicial arm of the United nations.

The case grew out of a legacy of nuclear weapons testing in the Marshall Islands by the United States between 1946 and 1958; in 2014, the Marshall Islands filed suit against nine nuclear weapon states at the ICJ — China, North Korea, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States — accusing them of insufficiently “fulfilling their obligations with respect to the cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament.” India, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom ended up defending themselves at the ICJ this year over their declarations to accept ICJ’s compulsory jurisdiction under article 36, paragraph 2 of the court’s statute.

Two Chinese boats illegally fishing in South Korean waters rammed and sank a Korea Coast Guard vessel on October 9, after which several nearby Chinese ships closed in, armed with spearlike metal rods, until another coast guard vessel arrived and fired at the boats with an assault rifle and a grenade launcher.

South Korean authorities are naturally seeing red. Lee Chun-jae, vice commissioner of the Korea Coast Guard,said this week, “we will employ all means possible [to defend Korean waters], including using our patrol ships to ram Chinese vessels.”