Everyone is concerned about France’s position on the international stage if the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) or the New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire, NPF) win the legislative elections on July 7. France’s weight in Europe, its ability to stimulate new thinking on strategic issues – especially on the eve of Donald Trump’s possible return to the U.S. presidency – and the future of the already fragile Franco-German partnership are all being called into question.
The positioning of the two extreme blocs, particularly with regard to support for Ukraine, is a major source of uncertainty and concern. While the NPF is now more balanced, its LFI (La France Insoumise) component and its leader, Jean Luc Mélenchon, have never hidden their aversion to supporting Ukraine. The RN now has less pro-Russia positions, but will not go as far as President Emmanuel Macron in supporting Kyiv.
However, another foreign policy issue – relations with the major Asian powers, and in particular China – is less debated. For France, the Indo-Pacific is geographically more distant, but at least as important in terms of its economic and strategic consequences in the event of a major crisis.
The National Rally’s Indo-Pacific Policy
The RN is primarily interested in domestic issues, and these are the ones favored by its electorate. Marine Le Pen has often repeated that her only compass is the interest of France, in a sort of French version of Trump’s “America First” slogan. It is therefore to be feared that under an RN government, transactional factors will prevail over principles such as human rights. Under these conditions, the challenges of the Indo-Pacific, a structuring element of France’s strong engagement in the region since 2018, are not a priority.
However, discussion of the Indo-Pacific was present in the defense booklet of the National Rally’s 2022 program, which is no longer available online. In the old version, China was denounced as an aggressive power conducting asymmetric operations and targeting New Caledonia and French Polynesia in the Pacific. The RN program slammed China’s Belt and Road Initiative as “strangling the sovereignty of neighboring states and freedom of navigation.”
On the economic front, the RN has taken an equally cautious stance toward China. Commenting on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to France in May 2024, Jordan Bardella, who aims to become the next prime minister, denounced the imbalance in trade relations and defended economic patriotism and national and European priority through targeted tariffs.
For his part, the new RN ally Éric Ciotti, from the mainstream Les Républicains (LR) party, himself denounced China at the time of COVID-19 as “the greatest dictatorship in the world.”
As far as autocracies are concerned, the RN’s position on China is not the same as that on Russia. So it’s not certain that, as some have claimed, TikTok’s algorithm artificially “pushes” Bardella, who has 1.6 million subscribers on the Chinese-owned social network.
At the same time, the RN also advocates non-interference in the internal affairs of nations, and Le Pen declared that she wants to talk to everyone, from Russia to China, since the great powers “cannot be denied.”
Finally, in a kind of Macronism 2.0, the RN refuses to be dragged along by the United States, “an ally that is not a friend and can behave like a competitor, even an adversary.” Some, such as Hervé Juvin, adviser to Le Pen in 2022, have taken more problematic positions, welcoming the “Chinese road to democracy” after the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which saw Xi Jinping appointed to a third consecutive term as top leader.
On the question of Taiwan, European deputy Dominique Bilde declared in a “tribune libre” published on the party’s website that Taiwan is an issue used by the “imperialist” United States, which wants to maintain its power base in the Pacific. This is a thesis defended by Beijing, and apparently held by the RN (or at least some of its members). At the same time, Bilde deplored the possible annexation of Taiwan, “regrettable for this people who want to preserve their independence.”
Another Asian power, Japan – which along with India is one of the strategic partners mentioned in the RN program – is much less present than China. When Marine Le Pen called for the reform of the United Nations Security Council in 2022, she mentioned the need to include India and an African or South American country, but not Japan.
In terms of values, however, the RN’s proximity to Tokyo is striking, whether on immigration, national preference, or internal security. In 2010, Bruno Gollnisch, a member of the National Council of the RN, a graduate of Keio University, and married to a Japanese woman, organized a visit to Tokyo for Jean-Marie Le Pen, with the Yasukuni Shrine as an important stop.
This ideological closeness is something that the Japanese themselves do not want to emphasize, even if they have had contacts with the RN as well as with other political parties likely to win elections in France.
The New Popular Front and the Indo-Pacific
On the part of the NFP, it is even more difficult to predict how it will position itself in the event of a left-wing victory in the legislative elections, given the abysmal rift between the movement’s components.
Raphaël Glucksman, from the socialist party, who came out well in the European elections, has made a name for himself in the European Parliament for his outspoken stance on the Uyghur issue. He is one of the MEPs sanctioned by the Chinese regime in 2021.
At the other end of the spectrum, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s positions are very much in line with those of Beijing. He has criticized the Dalai Lama and denounced the “provocations” of then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan. He defended the principle of China’s red line on Taiwan and disagreed with the French National Assembly’s adoption of a resolution against the genocide of the Uyghurs in 2022. China’s ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, well known for his “wolf warrior” diplomacy, praised the LFI leader’s steadfast support.
For Asia, these issues are important. Paris occupies a special place in Europe, and any change in its position on strategic issues and even on economic issues in Asia – and relations with China in particular – could have significant repercussions, including on European policy as a whole.
For the time being, an uneasy caution prevails in the region as the world waits to see the election results.