Taiwan has occasionally emerged as a talking point in the U.S. presidential campaign, from candidate comments on how far they would go to defend the island to discussions of Taiwan’s all-important semiconductor industry. But the impact that such remarks have on Taiwan is often overlooked. At a time of political polarization in Taiwan, U.S. economic and security policies – and how Taipei should respond – are topics for scrutiny and debate.
For more insight into how U.S. policies mesh with Taiwan’s politics, The Diplomat’s Shannon Tiezzi interviewed Russell Hsiao, the executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute as well as a senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation and adjunct fellow at Pacific Forum. Ultimately, Hsiao said, “The United States is inextricably linked with Taiwan’s domestic politics… both for historical reasons of the bilateral relationship and the vital role that the United States continues to play in Taiwan’s defense and security.”
Taiwan has been a talking point in the U.S. presidential election – and the U.S. was also a part of Taiwan’s election dynamics earlier this year, via the so-called U.S. skepticism theory. How does the United States factor into Taiwan’s domestic political dynamics?
The United States is inextricably linked with Taiwan’s domestic politics. This is both for historical reasons of the bilateral relationship and the vital role that the U.S. continues to play in Taiwan’s defense and security and critically for its relations with China even in the absence of diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan.
Since the abrupt switch in diplomatic ties by the United States from the Republic of China to Beijing during the Cold War in 1979 – and to an extent even before that – there existed a degree of skepticism in Taiwan, particularly among the political elite, in older generations of officials, and the public toward the intentions of the United States. The switch in diplomatic ties amplified that schism in Taiwan’s domestic politics or, more accurately for the time, factional politics within the Kuomintang (KMT) – the party that directly ruled Taiwan as a one-party state from 1949 to 1996 and was in charge during the period in which the United States switched diplomatic ties. That schism persists today and is reflected in some of the platforms held by the political parties in Taiwan.
Some in the KMT, particularly those of the older generations, harbor deep-seated angst toward the United States given what they saw as a political betrayal by Washington. This feeling of doubt and cynicism remains pronounced among party members and also with a traditional constituency within the KMT that is more aligned with China for political and ethno-nationalistic reasons.
For the Democratic Progressive Party, which was only established in 1986 – after the United States’ switch in diplomatic ties – and many of whose members had been politically persecuted and suppressed during the period of martial law imposed by the KMT, the practical and emotional impact of the switch in the diplomatic relations was perhaps secondary to the direct struggle for democratic and human rights of Taiwan’s people. Some believe that were it not for the political pressure imposed by the U.S. decision to withdraw its political support for the KMT regime, then the KMT may not have liberalized and loosened its political control – and Taiwan would not be the beacon of democracy it is today. As such, there is a natural pro-U.S. constituency within the DPP.
At the same time, because of its past and origin in opposition to or outside of the party-state (dangwai), ever since its founding, there is a traditional constituency within the DPP that aspires for Taiwan to be fully independent of the Republic of China – as manifested by a declaration and a new constitution. Those who hold this view believe that U.S. support or non-support for independence would be instrumental.
While there are many other smaller political parties within Taiwan’s political system like the Taiwan People’s Party, the newest political party created only in 2019 by former Taipei City Mayor Ko Wen-je, the schism in Taiwan’s politics is broadly reflected by the two major political parties, and the smaller parties’ view of the United States are variations of the two.