Nearly one year after their last bilateral talks, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterpart Cho Tae-yul met once again on January 6, but in a completely different atmosphere. This time, Washington’s key ally in the Indo-Pacific is wracked by an unprecedented political crisis triggered by President Yoon Suk-yeol’s short-lived declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024.
The agenda might be the same as their last meeting – with the South Korea-U.S. alliance and North Korea issues on the table, plus the Japan-South Korea-U.S. trilateral cooperation as well as regional and global challenges – but the significance is in the trip itself, not its content.
The two-day visit to Seoul is part of Blinken’s trip to South Korea, Japan, France, Italy, and the Holy See respectively until January 11. It is not only the first visit by a top U.S. official to Seoul since the martial law imposition and Yoon’s impeachment, but also likely the last overseas trip by Blinken himself as the U.S. secretary of state and as a high-ranking official of the outgoing Biden administration. The trip marks Blinken’s return to Seoul after the third Summit for Democracy (S4D) was hosted by the Yoon administration last year.
This time, Blinken and Cho held their talks on the same day that a warrant for Yoon’s arrest expired amid a standoff between investigators and presidential security. This is not a coincidence. The two sides worked closely together to arrange the visit, turning the spotlight on the implications for both countries and their alliance.
For the United States, the trip stresses Washington’s continued support for South Korea’s democracy despite Seoul’s lingering political crisis. Last month, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the two countries would “speak out publicly and engage privately” to reinforce South Korea’s “robust and resilient democracy.”
After Yoon’s declaration of martial law, which eventually led to his impeachment, upended South Korea politics, Blinken held two phone calls with his counterpart Cho Tae-yul (on December 6 and 21 last year), reaffirming the “ironclad” alliance between the United States and South Korea. Now Blinken made this trip to Seoul to show that the U.S. words and actions are consistent. The move is also a way for the Biden administration to honor Seoul’s close collaboration with Washington over the last few years as two leading democracies of the world.
Furthermore, the two-day visit also highlights Biden’s legacy during his last days in office. After leaving Seoul, Blinken headed to Tokyo to review the Japan-U.S. alliance’s recent progress as well as the two countries’ coordination in addressing regional and global issues. As Trump is set to take office on January 20, Blinken’s trips to both Seoul and Tokyo can be seen as an attempt to reiterate Biden’s outstanding achievements during his only term, which are fostering U.S. alliance with key partners in the region and strengthening solidarity among democratic countries. Through the visits, Biden is promoting continuity in U.S. policy toward key allies and partners just before Trump’s second presidential term begins.
For South Korea, Blinken’s visit comes at a time when Seoul really needs it. For the current government in particular, the fact that Blinken met Cho on the day of the arrest warrant’s expiration might be a tactic to unite Yoon’s supporters in South Korea. With the main opposition party, the Democratic Party (DP), controlling the National Assembly, Yoon hitting a record low approval rating just before the impeachment on December 14, and the degraded backing for Yoon from his own ruling party, the only tool left for the president to garner support from domestic voters is to stress his track record on bolstering the U.S. deterrence against North Korea.
Blinken’s trip was a good occasion for the South to reaffirm its commitment to the alliance and nuclear deterrence in the face of deepening military ties between the North and Russia. In fact, Yoon’s supporters did use the South Korea-U.S. alliance and North Korea threat rhetoric when protesting outside the president’s residence to prevent South Korea’s investigators from enforcing the arrest warrant.
Moreover, the Yoon administration is trying to ensure South Korea’s foreign relations, especially with the most important partners, remain on track as well as improve global confidence in the country’s tarnished international image. After Yoon’s controversial declaration of martial law, several bilateral events between the United States and South Korea were postponed, notably a session of the Nuclear Consultative Group. Blinken’s trip therefore is a positive sign that business-as-usual is resuming. Blinken had a meeting with Acting President Choi Sang-mok, which saw the two discuss “how both sides will work together to further strengthen bilateral cooperation and trilateral cooperation with Japan on the full range of important global and regional issues.”
Diplomatic sources also reveal that Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi will soon pay a visit to Seoul (likely to take place on January 13). Tokyo, Seoul, and Beijing have also launched discussions together in preparation for the China-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Summit to be hosted by Japan later this year. All these diplomatic efforts are being made to ease worries amid political upheaval in Seoul about the future prospects of the Japan-South Korea-U.S. trilateral and the renewed China-Japan-South Korea three-way summit, which the Yoon administration worked hard to resume last year.
In the near future, the development of the South Korea-U.S. alliance will depend on factors including the new Trump administration, a potential new DP president’s administration in South Korea, and North Korea’s nuclear threat. During his first term in the White House, Donald Trump worked well with then-President Moon Jae-in of the DP in facilitating the North Korea-U.S. denuclearization talks. A repetition of that scenario is possible but may not occur in the short term given that Trump now prioritizes another trade showdown with China and putting an end to the conflict in Ukraine. In South Korea, meanwhile, Yoon’s fate remains unclear despite the DP’s rise in South Korea.
