U.S. President Ronald Reagan, who happened to be a former actor, once said that it was unthinkable for a president not to be an actor. The intent of the comment reflected his understanding that a modern-day political leader is constantly faced by an audience – say, the media, and the public – and requires communication skills that will intrigue and compel them to side with his agenda. The prerequisites that Reagan suggested for a U.S. president, could be also applied to politicians in general, and especially ones in the age of social media, where a superb performance trumps any other traits needed to capture the attention of the voters.
Other than a former acting career, Yamamoto Taro – the founder and leader of the political party Reiwa Shinsengumi (Reiwa) – has little in common with Reagan and his politics; instead Yamamoto says he admires Franklin Roosevelt. His Reiwa Shinsengumi party includes the “Green New Deal” in its policy platform and believes in the role of a bigger government in solving problems (Reagan, by contrast, said that the government was the problem). However, Yamamoto would surely agree with Reagan that his acting career is what has made him – and the movement that he defines – a force to be reckoned with.
Yamamoto’s videos on social media have a tendency to go viral, mainly because of his delivery skills wrought by past training as an actor. The fact that he does not speak like a politician further reinforces his appeal. The rallies and demonstrations that he organizes are joyful – with a dark undertone that describes the social malaise, but still lively. The music that accompanies such politics events is more American than Japanese.
Yamamoto was first elected in 2013 as an anti-nuclear candidate. When he launched Reiwa in 2019, it started as a one-man party, with Yamamoto being the only elected official. Currently, they have 14 elected officials in the Diet – five in the upper house, and nine in the lower house. The proportional ballots Reiwa received in the last general elections in October exceeded that of the Japanese Communist Party, a traditional leftist party, signaling a seismic shift in the progressive voting bloc in Japan from one to the other. Reiwa’s overall popularity, in some polls, is approaching the level of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and surpassing Nippon Ishin no Kai (Nippon Ishin).
Reiwa is in the process of transitioning into a leader of Japan’s progressive politics, but also climbing up the path to become a party with nationwide aspirations.
Most of the policies that Yamamoto stands for could be categorized as liberal or progressive in the context of Japanese politics. He wants to ban nuclear energy, legalize same-sex marriage, oppose constitutional revision, and increase government spending for the elder and poor. What separates Yamamoto – and the party he leads – from the rest in terms of policy is the “radicalness” of his economic policies, particularly abolishing the consumption tax, a levy of 10 percent on most consumer goods and services.
The consumption tax cut, when it was espoused as Reiwa’s official policy, was seen as not only “radical” but as “heterodoxy”: out of touch from the economic moment. During the early 2010s austerity was the go-to policy of the day. The banking crisis that broke out in 2009, with Greece’s debt crisis, had transnational effects. It impacted not only the Japanese economy but also the psychology of the Japanese political mainstream. Growing concerns about the massive Japanese debt pushed policymakers to adopt prudent economic policies, including the consumption tax hike.
The tax hikes were embraced by both the government, then led by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), and the Liberal Democratic Party, the largest opposition at that time, and its ally Komeito. When the LDP’s Abe Shinzo came to power, his administration followed through with his promise to the DPJ, raising the consumption tax from 5 percent to 8 percent in 2014, and 8 percent to 10 percent in 201. There was little political blow back; Abe even campaigned on raising the tax in 2019.
However, times have changed. In 2019, Reiwa was one of the few political parties fighting to cut the consumption tax. Now, most of the parties besides the LDP, which says that the consumption tax is a “important stable financial resource for social security,” are advocating for some type of tax cut. In 2020, the CDP – the spiritual successor of the DPJ, which was the mastermind of the consumption tax hike – included a time limited tax cut as one of their campaign promises. Nippon Ishin and the JCP too have campaigned for a consumption tax cut in successive general elections. The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) advocates for slashing not only the consumption tax, but also the taxes on gasoline.
But no party comes closes to the “radicalness” that Yamamoto proposes.
One of the reasons why the proposition of a consumption tax cut is popular across the board is because the effects would be immediately visible; it would affect every purchase that a consumer makes. Another reason has to do with the perception of the voters that the consumption tax is an obstacle for Japanese growth, so that removing it will reverse the economic trajectory. And as inflation surges at rates Japan has not seen in years, reflected in both the price of groceries and climbing medical insurances fee, the vulnerable members of society feel the debate surrounding the consumption tax more keenly.
Such members are moving in droves to Reiwa. According to a poll conducted by NHK in early March, Reiwa’s approval rating among 18 to 29 years old was the third largest among all parties: the LDP was at 19.6 percent, the DPFP at 16.7 percent, and Reiwa at 6 percent.
Among voters in their 30s, Reiwa had the second largest approval rating, beaten only by DPFP, but defeating the LDP, according to a poll from Sankei/FNN. Moreover, asked which party they would write down on their proportional ballot for the House of Councillors election that is expected in July, Reiwa was the third favorite among voters in their 40s and 50s.
It’s no coincidence that the middle age groups have responded well to Reiwa. This demographic, which was affected the most by the shrinkage of the labor market around the early 2000s, is the one that Reiwa consciously courts for their support. The DPFP, the second-favorite proportional ballot pick in the Sankei/FNN poll, has only a small advantage over Reiwa among the so called “employment ice age generation.”
Japan is entering a new era where the generosity of economic policies – even their “radicalness” – is seen as an important criterion for voters to decide which party to support. It’s the right moment for both Yamamoto’s personality and his policies. But the same movement is an ominous sign for Japan’s fiscal health, and its tumultuous political future.