While there is wide-spread speculation about what the second administration of U.S. President Donald Trump will do with regard to its massive troop presence in Europe, the administration has made it clear that it intends to maintain and strengthen the U.S. military presence in Japan vis-a-vis an increasingly aggressive China – especially with a Taiwan emergency in mind.
Speaking in Tokyo on March 30, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that the U.S. and Japan “stand firmly together in the face of aggressive and coercive actions by the Communist Chinese.”
“Japan would be on the front lines of any contingency we might face in the western Pacific and we stand together in support of each other,” Hegseth said during a joint press conference with Japanese Defense Minister Nakatani Gen in Tokyo, after the first U.S.-Japan defense ministers’ meeting to take place since Trump took office in January. “Japan is an indispensable partner in deterring Communist Chinese military aggression,” Hegseth added.
The reason behind the specific wording by the secretary – references to “Communist Chinese” – is that administration hard-liners on China, such as Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have longer argued that the Chinese Communist Party should be separated from the Chinese people, and they have made it clear that the target of their criticism is the communist rulers in Beijing, not the Chinese people writ large.
At the joint press conference, Hegseth announced that the Pentagon has started phase one of upgrading U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) to a joint force headquarters.
At the so-called two-plus-two meeting in Tokyo in July 2024, the U.S. Defense Department originally announced that USFJ would be upgraded from a primarily administrative command to a joint force headquarters, meaning it would have more warfighting and operational responsibilities.
But earlier this month, U.S. media reported that the Pentagon is considering halting a planned expansion of USFJ to save about $1.1 billion in costs related to personnel and command and control upgrades.
Hegseth said in Tokyo this week that the USFJ upgrade will help improve the command’s ability to operate with Japan’s Joint Operations Command, which was established on March 24 and is responsible for commanding the three branches of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces from peacetime to times of emergency.
In addition, Hegseth described Japan as “a model ally.”
There were concerns in Tokyo that Hegseth would specifically request that Japan provide additional cost-sharing or defense spending, but he did not.
“We’re confident that Japan will make the correct determination of what capabilities are needed inside our alliance to make sure we’re standing shoulder to shoulder,” he said, adding “but we also both recognize everybody needs to do more.”
The Pentagon chief’s comments brought a sense of relief to Japanese defense officials.
A Japanese Defense Ministry official expressed satisfaction, saying, “We got what we wanted from this Japan-U.S. defense ministerial meeting.”
The official added, “What we most wanted to confirm at this Japan-U.S. defense ministerial meeting was that we thought it was important to continue to move ahead with the plans related to security cooperation under the Joe Biden administration last year, especially the plans confirmed at the 2+2 meeting in July last year.”
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official continued, “There were some worries and concerns that there might be changes under the Trump administration and that whether or not it would continue to implement each of the efforts to strengthen deterrence and response capabilities confirmed at the 2+2 meeting under the Biden administration, specifically upgrading Alliance command and control, increasing bilateral presence in Japan’s Southwest Islands, deepening defense industry and advanced technology cooperation by using the Forum on Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition and Sustainment (DICAS), and multilateral cooperation with partners in the region, including Australia, South Korea, and the Philippines.”
However, the official added, “it was basically the same as what was confirmed at last year’s 2+2 meeting. Moreover, we were able to confirm with Secretary Hegseth that we will accelerate and develop these even more.”
Nakatani, Japan’s defense chief, said at the press conference that the meeting had “produced great results and was a great success.”
In response, China rebuked Hegseth’s stance of confronting Beijing together with Tokyo, saying that the U.S. uses “China threat” rhetoric as an excuse to provoke ideological confrontation, incite division, and stoke conflict.
Tokyo and Washington’s efforts to improve deterrence could give China an excuse to take further aggressive action.
For example, in August 2022, when then-Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, the Chinese military responded by firing nine ballistic missiles, five of which landed within Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
Of the missile impact sites, the one closest to Japanese territory was about 80 kilometers from Yonaguni Island. The 2024 Defense White Paper pointed out that “this is a serious issue relating to Japan’s security and the safety of its people and was perceived as a threat to local residents.”
This may reflect a classic security dilemma. If one side strengthens its collective deterrence, the other side also strengthens its collective deterrence to match it. This is a law of action and reaction, bringing about a vicious circle of military expansion. And if tensions rise too much, the region could be forced into an unexpected – and unnecessary – conflict that no country actually wants.
For this reason, efforts by the United States, Japan, and China to reduce tensions in the region are also needed.