1992 Consensus

Back in 2011, the Obama administration caught flak for leaking its fears about then-candidate Tsai’s cross-strait policy. In retrospect, it was right to be concerned.

The KMT’s structure keeps it beholden to a group that is increasingly out of step with Taiwan’s general population on China and unification. 

CCP and KMT negotiators sought to formulate a framework to manage the cross-strait relationship within what they recognized to be an “irresolvable conflict.”

The coming election may set the future course for the KMT, currently Taiwan’s main opposition party.

Clinging to the consensus has won the party little respect from Beijing, while putting it out of step with the majority of Taiwanese opinion.

A new leader has brought new ideas, including on the sensitive question of cross-strait relations, but the old guard remains entrenched.

Beijing and Taipei‘s nebulous common understanding is not what it used to be.

The CCP is taking a wait-and-see stance, but it has some cause to worry about Johnny Chiang.

The framework for governing Hong Kong and Macau – and, Beijing hopes, one day Taiwan – is battered but unbroken.

The 1992 Consensus is being challenged by each of the three major forces shaping cross-strait relations: the DPP, the KMT, and Beijing.

President Tsai Ing-wen visited Taiwan’s Pacific diplomatic allies, while Han Kuo-yu stopped in Hong Kong, Macau, and China.