Afghanistan-Pakistan relations

Each government is attempting to blame the other for the continued activities of ISKP. Meanwhile, the group continues to conduct attacks.

Is Pakistan on the verge of losing its erstwhile friend, the Afghan Taliban, to its arch-rival India?

While a reconciliation between the two estranged partners – the Taliban and Islamabad – seems impossible, the rift has opened up opportunities for New Delhi to step in. 

To address its terrorism concerns, Pakistan is simultaneously pursuing diplomacy with the Taliban government in Afghanistan and cross-border attacks.

It’s hard to imagine that cross-border airstrikes will serve the desired goal of ending the rising level of violence and lawlessness in the areas of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan. 

Pakistan has long been concerned about dams on transboundary rivers in Afghanistan, but China’s involvement creates an opportunity for regional cooperation. 

“There is a constant attack on Afghan refugees in Pakistan, with narratives portraying Afghan refugees as enemies of the state, a security threat, burden, or in other stereotypical ways.”

Some 600,000 Afghans have returned home since last October, when the crackdown began, meaning at least a million remain in Pakistan in hiding.

The dynamics of this trilateral relationship will shape the future trajectory of Afghanistan and its broader implications for regional stability and prosperity.

The Taliban government is trying to anticipate Pakistan’s potential moves and limit whatever leverage Islamabad holds over Afghanistan.

The Taliban have proved unresponsive to Pakistan's security concerns, resulting in mounting tensions between the two.

The famously pro-Taliban politician is making a visit to Kabul at a tense time in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations.

“Dozens of Tajikistan citizens have been killed in our operations and dozens of others have been arrested,” acting Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid said.

“If you are Afghan, you have no rights, and actually, your status does not make much difference.” 

Pakistani officials warn that people who are in the country illegally face arrest and deportation after October 31. The bulk of migrants in Pakistan are Afghan. 

Islamabad wants Kabul to take actual action against the TTP, and is using Afghan refugees as a bargaining chip. 

“We came with such difficulty... We would not leave on our own. If we could survive in Afghanistan then why would we flee?”

It has introduced new measures to punish the Kabul regime for its continued sheltering of the TTP – including moving to repatriate Afghan refugees.

A new joint committee on border movement aims to address the problem of cross-border attacks.

At first, a Taliban victory in Afghanistan was considered synonymous with Pakistan’s victory. But disappointed hopes on both sides now have the neighbors at loggerheads.

If Kabul is able to get the TTP to call off its spring offensive, Islamabad would respond with deals on travel and trade.

The Taliban may not be willing to crack down beyond a point, as that could provide the group's arch-foe, the ISKP, with a propaganda boost.

The closure of the Torkham border crossing after an exchange of fire between the two sides has halted trade.

Pakistan skipped the meeting, while Russia has proposed a new effort to build “regional consensus” – a G-5.