Kazakhstan-Russia relations

Back-to-back visits by Kazakh President Tokayev this week to Moscow and Paris underscore Astana’s unique position.

In the early 1990s, ethnic Russians left Kazakhstan in droves. In 2022, that flow once again reversed as Russians fled into Central Asia.

The new version of Kazakhstan’s military doctrine signals that Astana intends to hold fast to the principles of national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Moscow denies that Central Asians are being conscripted into the Russian military, but the risk is real.

“We must take care of them and ensure their safety. This is a political and humanitarian issue,” Kazakh President Tokayev said of the influx of Russians.

The not-so-subtle criticism of the Russian government regarding Ukraine in Kazakh President Tokayev’s UNGA speech should not be overlooked.

The decision was immediately framed in the press as related to the war in Ukraine, but we know very little about Kazakhstan’s arms exports.

The timing of an August 3 briefing on a months-old separatism case in Petropavl was no coincidence.

Medvedev has since deleted the social media post and blamed hackers.

Most of Kazakhstan’s oil exports go through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which has been targeted by Russian courts. 

The timing of the decision has naturally raised some eyebrows, but of greater consequence is the lack of diversification of export routes for Kazakh oil.