On September 18, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell bluntly stated at a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing that “the Cold War pales in comparison to the multifaceted challenges that China presents.” In fact, the view that the U.S. and China are already in a new Cold War has been widely discussed in the United States. The two countries are undoubtedly in a state of intense confrontation, which is a marked change from the late 2000s and early 2010s.
In 2007, Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick co-authored an article titled “‘Chimerica’ and the Global Asset Market Boom” in International Finance. They argued that China and the United States shared a symbiotic relationship: one saved while the other consumed, one exported while the other imported, one provided products while the other provided services, one accumulated foreign exchange reserves while the other printed dollars.
In 2008, Fred Bergsten published “A Partnership of Equals: How Washington Should Respond to China’s Economic Challenge” in Foreign Affairs. He argued that the United States should encourage China to become a responsible pillar in the global economic system and seek to establish a genuine partnership with Beijing to jointly lead the global economic order.
From then on, the idea of a Group of Two (G-2) began to spread.
The 2007-2008 financial crisis, which originated in the United States, swept across the globe. However, due to the relative independence of China’s market, coupled with its sustained high economic growth and substantial foreign exchange reserves, China appeared more stable in the face of the crisis. China’s highly successful hosting of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, which impressed the world, also marked a peak in the international prestige of the People’s Republic of China. This was the global context in which the concepts of Chimerica, the G-2, and China-U.S. co-governance emerged. At that time, the world was in need of rescue, and China was seen as one of the most capable rescuers.
Whether it was called Chimerica or the G-2, both concepts centered on the United States collaborating with China in addressing global challenges. At that time, even within the world’s leading power, the U.S., many recognized China’s significant international standing and believed that close cooperation with China was essential. President Barack Obama (in office from 2009 to 2017) and his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, repeatedly emphasized the importance of maintaining strong cooperation between the United States and China.
Although China also sought greater and better cooperation with the U.S., Beijing did not endorse terms like Chimerica or the G-2 and was even critical of them. China believed these concepts promoted the idea of China-U.S. co-governance of the world, which could easily fuel the “China threat” narrative.
When receiving visiting President Obama in November 2009, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao made it clear that he did not agree with the G-2. The Chinese premier stated that the idea of China-U.S. co-governance was flawed and did not align with China’s peaceful diplomatic principles.
In 2010, China’s GDP surpassed Japan’s, making it the world’s second-largest economy after the United States. Since Xi Jinping became China’s top leader in 2012, Beijing has become increasingly confident in diplomacy, which is often seen by some countries such as the United States as reflecting China’s growing ambitions. Additionally, more attention has been paid to the significant differences in ideology and political systems, along with some actions by China that were seen as not in line with WTO rules. All these factors together have led to China being increasingly viewed as a threat by the United States.
Actually, while the Obama administration expressed a desire to cooperate with China, it was also strengthening efforts to contain China, especially in Obama’s second term. The “U.S. Rebalance to Asia” strategy illustrated this point. This trend would intensify over time.
The National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration in 2017 clearly defined China and Russia as the United States’ main rivals and strategic adversaries. This administration “awakened” Washington officials to the urgency of addressing the threat posed by China. During the Trump administration, the United States engaged in a fierce trade war with China, leading to a strained China-U.S. relationship.
The Biden administration largely inherited its predecessor’s hardline policies toward China, further clarifying its perception of a “China threat.” Over time, the U.S. government has come to view the fundamental nature of China-U.S. relations as competitive.
The U.S. government’s attitude toward China naturally influences U.S. public opinion. The Pew Research Center surveyed American adults in 2007, 2014, and 2019, asking which country is the greatest threat to the United States. China ranked third (2007), second (2014), and tied for first with Russia (2019), showing Americans’ threat perception of China increased over time. The same survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in 2023 found that as many as 50 percent of respondents considered China to be the top threat to the United States, while only 17 percent viewed Russia as the top threat.
At the same time, the U.S. legislative branch continues to propose bills targeting China. For example, in mid-September 2024, the U.S. House of Representatives voted on more than 20 bills related to China, showcasing an effort by Congress to curb China’s influence. China is being regarded as the leader of an anti-US axis formed together with Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and even Cuba.
The United States has developed not only a bipartisan but also a public consensus of negative perceptions towards China. Washington firmly views China as an undisputed rival.
The evolution from G-2 to the current rivalry was not quite as simple as described above, of course. Almost immediately after the idea of Chimerica/the G-2 emerged, it faced significant criticism and opposition, both in the United States and in China. Even Ferguson and Schularick, the creators of the term “Chimerica,” collaborated again in 2009 to publish an article titled “The End of Chimerica.”
On the other hand, there has been an undeniable change in recent years. Although Beijing has repeatedly stated that China and the United States are partners rather than rivals, this claim – which was not controversial even 10 years ago – has been explicitly rejected by the U.S. government. Meanwhile, U.S. academia has a growing lack of understanding of China and an increasingly negative attitude toward China.
Today, when cooperation is advocated, it faces strong pushback in the United States. The impact is clear in mounting tensions with China.