There’s a political adage in Tokyo: “A failure in domestic policy may only bring down one Cabinet, but a failure in foreign policy can destroy a country.” With Japan’s national interests at stake, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s diplomatic skills will be fully put to the test when he holds his first summit with U.S. President Donald Trump on February 7 in the White House.
Ishiba will be the second foreign leader – following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – to meet face-to-face with Trump since the president’s second inauguration on January 20.
“The fact that a Japan-U.S. summit meeting is being held so soon after the inauguration of the Trump administration shows the importance that the U.S. places on Japan,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa said at a press conference on February 6.
Thanks to Japan’s rigid press club system, which has close ties to the authorities, more and more information on the upcoming summit is trickling down from government officials to the media.
According to media reports, the two leaders will issue a joint statement about “building a golden age of U.S.-Japan relations,” by emphasizing their commitment to take the alliance to “new heights” and realize a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”
Specifically, the joint statement will show the common understanding between the two nations, based on the three pillars of the economy, security, and countering China. They will also agree to hold a 2+2 foreign and defense ministerial meeting at an early date, most possibly in the first half of this year, and deepen Japan-U.S. security cooperation under their new administrations.
Regarding China, just like many previous joint statements, Ishiba and Trump will oppose any unilateral attempt to change the status quo in the East and South China Seas. In addition to reaffirming the application of Article 5 of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty to the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which are administered by Japan but claimed by China, the joint statement will also touch on the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Here are three points we should watch at their first summit.
How Much Personal Trust Can Ishiba Build With Trump?
Before leaving for the United States, Ishiba told reporters at the Prime Minister’s Office on February 6, “As this is our first meeting, I would like to work hard to establish a relationship of trust between us.”
However, no experts in Tokyo expect Ishiba to be able to reproduce the close relationship that former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo had with Trump.
The relationship between Trump and Abe appeared similar to that between Gian and Suneo, two popular cartoon characters of the beloved Japanese manga “Doraemon,” which is also a popular animated children’s show in Japan and elsewhere.
Gian is the leader of the elementary school kids and physically big. He uses his strength to get his way in everything he wants. Suneo is Gian’s underling and is always bowing down to him. However, Suneo is Gian’s wise man and sometimes gives him very useful advice. In the English version of Doraemon, Suneo appears under the name “Sneech,” which is reminiscent of sneer. Gian is called “Big G” in the U.S.
Unlike Suneo-type Abe, Ishiba is not the type of politician who can flatter someone with dexterity. Reputed to be a Japanese version of Charles de Gaulle, he takes a more independent path for Japan than Abe.
However, Sato Masaru, an ex-chief intelligence analyst at the Foreign Ministry of Japan, takes a different view. Sato has pointed out that Ishiba and Trump have something in common: they have both been devout Christians since childhood.
“Ishiba and Trump use the same [mental] operating system. I think they are surprisingly on the same wavelength because they think alike,” Sato said in a speech in Tokyo last October.
What Gifts Will Prime Minister Ishiba Bring to Trump?
Aiming to build a smooth relationship with the Trump administration, Ishiba plans to raise the topic of expanding imports of energy from the U.S., including American shale gas, at the summit. This is a “gift” from Japan in response to Trump’s proposal to increase oil and natural gas production. Attention will be focused on how Ishiba will use this diplomatic card of expanding imports of U.S. shale gas as part of his own agenda.
Ishiba also plans to emphasize Japan’s record of being the top investor in the United States for five consecutive years, and its significant contribution to American employment.
What Are Trump’s Demands for Japan?
Some believe that Trump is still holding on to the view of Japan as a free-rider, which was very popular in the 1980s, when trade friction between the two countries was intense. He was a prominent figure of “Japan-bashing” at that time.
However, according to trade statistics for 2024 released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on February 5, the United States recorded its largest trade deficit in goods with China, at $295.4 billion, followed by the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, and Ireland, with Japan coming in seventh at $68.5 billion.
For this reason, Japan is not likely to be at the top of Trump’s tariff list.
At the same time, Japan is still wary that Trump will demand that Tokyo increase defense spending, pay for U.S. protection, and buy more U.S.-made weapons.
Citing a U.S. government official, Kyodo News reported on February 6 that Trump will “almost certainly pressure Japan to further increase its defense spending” during his meeting with Ishiba. Kyodo said the U.S. official didn’t specify a specific numerical target. Ishiba is likely to be asked to take further steps to ensure the continuation of Japan-U.S. security cooperation.
Japan is already on its way to raising defense spending to 2 percent of GDP, although how it will fund that increase remains an open question. However, Elbridge Colby, who served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development in the former Trump administration, said that Tokyo should increase its defense spending to 3 percent of GDP. Colby has been appointed as undersecretary for policy at the Pentagon in Trump’s second administration.
In response, Ishiba is expected to announce his intention to continue expanding purchases of defense equipment from the United States.
After the summit, the two leaders are scheduled to hold a joint press conference. Nobody knows what Trump will say there. At his joint media appearance with Israel’s Netanyahu, Trump sparked alarm and sent government officials scrambling with an off-the-cuff comment that the United States would “take over” the Gaza Strip. Japanese government officials fear that Trump will use the press conference with Ishiba as his own performance platform, as he is extremely skilled in media strategies to realize his own interests.