ECONOMY

What Happened: Anti-government protests swept through Thailand in 2020 and show no sign of ending this year. Protesters, mostly young Thais, are calling for the dissolution of parliament, a new constitution to promote democratic reforms, and changes to the monarchy. Instead, authorities have launched a sweeping crackdown.

Our Focus: The protests, coupled with COVID-19 lockdowns, have shaken foreign investors’ confidence in Thailand. “The outlook for foreign direct investment may be improving, even as the political situation remains uncertain,” writes maxwell Abbott, the head of business intelligence for Asia at The Risk Advisory Group. “But even if Thailand can weather the current storm, it is far from unreasonable to ask why foreign investors would stomach the country’s repeated episodes of political turmoil, especially when neighboring Southeast Asian countries — particularly Vietnam and Indonesia — offer political stability and attractive investment incentives.”

What Comes Next: As protests paused and the COVID-19 situation stabilized in late 2020, foreign investors seemed to regain confidence in Thailand. But with demonstrators now back and promising “more intensity” than ever, the Thai government will have a harder time convincing foreign businesses that all is well. Watch closely for signs that multinationals are looking elsewhere for Southeast Asia opportunities.

INTERVIEW

Kyle Gardner, author of The Frontier Complex: Geopolitics and the Making of the India-China Border, 1846-1962, on the colonial roots of the Sino-Indian disputes: “While the British spent a century developing border-making principles that were often successfully applied elsewhere, they failed in Ladakh. This legacy of failure and the borderless maps that reflected it were inherited by independent India in 1947 and, shortly thereafter, by the People’s Republic of China.”

Northeast Asia

The U.S. and South Korea reportedly reached initial agreement on a long-overdue cost-sharing deal this week, just as joint exercises between the two sides kicked off. Either development would be closely watched in North Korea; the two combined could spark a fiery response from Pyongyang, rhetorically or even literally via missile tests, in the next few weeks.

South Asia

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison told reporters on March 5 that a Quad leaders' summit is in the offing, adding to media reports that have emerged since President Joe Biden assumed office which suggests that the new administration is quite keen on such a meeting. Confirming Morrison's remarks, an Indian Ministry of External Affairs statement on March 9 noted that the first-ever Quad leaders' meeting will be held virtually on March 12. However, while the Quad has gathered significant momentum over the past year, some analysts caution there are several wildcards that could put a brake on the grouping's continued growth.

Southeast Asia

A court in Hanoi is hearing appeals this week against the raft of sentences handed down to 29 villagers in connection with the high-profile Dong Tam land dispute. In September, judges found the villagers guilty of resisting state authority following a deadly clash with police in early 2020. Given the political sensitivity of the case, which one expert has described as the “culmination of 40 years of problems” over land distribution in Vietnam, judicial leniency is unlikely.

Central Asia

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s letter to Afghan leaders and proposed peace plan has been characterized as a “hail Mary pass.” The Biden administration is still sorting out what to do about Afghanistan and wants the Afghans to get moving on peace. Meanwhile talks between the Taliban and Afghan government have stalled, the former waiting for the shoe to drop in Washington.

Photo by Saniog Manandhar

Activists demand an end to violence against women and discrimination in Kathmandu, Nepal on February 12, 2021.

SOCIETY

shèng​nǚ: Literally “leftover women” in Mandarin, referring to women over 27 who aren’t married (and, often, a specific subset of that group: highly educated working women). Chinese feminists have fought back against the demeaning term and related pressures to marry early and have children.

In case you missed it, check out our March 2 discussion of the Myanmar coup, the public resistance, and the diplomatic response online here.

Our next webinar, set for March 15 at 8 a.m. EST, will focus on the India-Pakistan ceasefire and prospects for regional peace. Sign up here.