Play The Diplomat’s Quiz: November 22, 2015 Edition

Australia and Japan have been moving closer on security matters since the mid 2000s. The first ministerial Trilateral Strategic Dialogue between the two countries and the United States was held in 2006, and a Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation was signed in 2007. Yet, security cooperation between Japan and Australia has – until recently – been limited to “nontraditional” issues.

It was surprising therefore, when news broke in mid-2014 that Australia might buy submarines from Japan. The export of Japanese submarines or submarine technology to Australia would extend the bilateral relationship into the arena of hard-edged defense. Moreover, because submarines are among the most closely guarded of military technologies, it would also reflect a remarkable level of trust and co-dependence between Japan and Australia.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter might not be produced in sufficient numbers to maintain the U.S. Air Force’s current operational capabilities due to budgetary constraints, according to Aerospace Daily & Defense Report. As a result the service is considering filling the capabilities gap with 72 Boeing F-15s, Lockheed-Martin F-16’s, or even Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets.

“F-15s and F-16s are now expected to serve until 2045, when an all-new aircraft will be ready, and plans to modernize F-16s with active electronically scanned array radars and other improvements are being revived,” the article states.

The largest Yakuza crime family, the Yamaguchi-gumi, has recently fractured: Thirteen smaller clans affiliated with the organization split from the group, apparently after disagreements on how it should move forward. The Yamaguchi-gumi had 10,400 members in 44 prefectures as of the end of 2014. The number would be 23,400 if quasi-members were included, accounting for 43.7 percent of all organized crime members in Japan. This split has caused alarm in the Japanese government, which fears a mob war in Japan’s underworld.

This fear seems to have been vindicated. According to the Asahi Shimbun, both the Yamaguchi-gumi and the thirteen splinter groups have been busy buying up weapons and lining up hitmen. The first shots in this mob war might have already been fired outside a hot spring facility in Iida, Nagano Prefecture. The 43-year-old man who was shot and killed outside a bathhouse on October 6 wanted to leave a Yamaguchi-gumi affiliate and join the newly formed rival organization consisting of the rebel gangs.

In what might be retaliation for this murder, a boss in the original Yamaguchi-gumi was killed on Sunday. Tatsuyuki Hishida was found tied up in his apartment after being bludgeoned to death. Police report that the killing was most likely in response to the Yamaguchi-gumi’s split.

In May, an ancient species of antelope — older than the mammoth — that roams the Kazakh steppe began dying off in massive numbers. The saiga antelope  has been migrating across the Eurasian steppe from Mongolia to Central Asia and Russia for tens of thousands of years.

“It’s like somebody waved a wand,” Dr. Richard Kock, of the Royal Veterinary College in London, said in a recent interview with PRI’s Living on Earth. When the die-off was over, an estimated 220,000 antelope were dead, out of a population of 250,000. Scientists now believe climate change may have had a hand in the unprecedented event.

The saiga have a funny-looking, bulbous nose that developed to help cope with the often frigid temperatures of the region, which can reach winter lows of 49 below zero (-45 degrees Celsius). Saiga are one of the fastest hoofed animals in the world, able to run 70 miles per hour to escape predators.

The Philippines, the only U.S. treaty ally amongst the four, unsurprisingly will continue to be the largest recipient of U.S. maritime security assistance, with a record $79 million in 2015 directed at building the training and logistical base for strengthening the Philippine military (See: “The Truth About Philippine Military Modernization and the China Threat”). As I noted in an earlier piece, U.S. President Barack Obama had announced in Manila that Washington would grant two new vessels to the Philippines (See: “US Gives the Philippines 2 New Vessels Amid South China Sea Tensions”).

Vietnam, the other forward-leaning ASEAN claimant in the South China Sea disputes, will receive $20.5 million in FY 2016 subject to appropriation, a small increase relative to the $19.6 million in FY 2015. Washington is helping Vietnam bolster its maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and command and control within Vietnam’s maritime agencies (See: “US, Vietnam Eye Deeper Coast Guard Cooperation”). It has also eased a lethal arms embargo which could be lifted fully in the future (See: “What’s Next for US-Vietnam Relations?”).

Assistance to Indonesia and Malaysia is still quite small by comparison. For Indonesia, almost $10 million is planned for FY 2016, a small dip relative to nearly $11 million for FY 2015. Assistance areas include boosting patrol capacity, ISR integration and maintenance capacity. There is also mention of supporting the Indonesian coast guard, though as I noted in a recent piece, some sources have suggested that this area of U.S.-Indonesia cooperation has been undermined  by vested interests (See: “What’s Behind the Missing US-Indonesia Maritime Security Pact?”).

The International Monetary Fund announced that it would recommend China’s renminbi for inclusion in its elite “Special Drawing Rights” (SDR) basket of currencies. The announcement was a welcome bit of good news for leaders in Beijing who have been trying to keep international perceptions of China’s economic robustness alive and well after a tumultuous summer that saw Chinese equity markets collapse. As the Financial Times put it, the IMF’s signal is, in effect, a “vote of confidence” in China’s ongoing reforms. Notably, the SDR basket inclusion announcement for the renminbi comes not long after the fifth plenary session of the 18th Communist Party Central Committee (CPCC) wrapped up, setting in place China’s thirteenth Five-Year Plan (my colleague Shannon Tiezzi joined me on the podcast to discuss the outcomes of the Fifth Plenum in more detail).

The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, reacted positively and pledged to continue reforms. It acknowledged the SDR invitation as “an acknowledgment of the progress in China’s recent economic development, reform and opening up.”

Cambodia’s opposition leader Sam Rainsy has made a last minute retreat, canceling his return trip to Phnom Penh where he risks being jailed amid a crackdown on dissenting voices.

Instead, the head of the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) said he would return “in the next few days” on advice from colleagues who urged him to return in broad daylight and allow some time for international diplomacy to take its course. He was scheduled to return late Monday evening from Korea three days after a warrant was issued for his arrest, which human rights groups say is politically motivated.

China aims to complete the long-awaited construction of a multibillion-dollar, high-speed rail project from southwestern China to Laos by 2020 as part of Beijing’s efforts to link itself to Southeast Asian markets, official sources confirmed over the weekend.

The two countries agreed Friday to build a 40-billion yuan ($6.28 billion), 418-kilometer railway from Kunming, the capital of southwestern China’s Yunnan province, to the Laotian capital of Vientiane, the officialChina Economic Herald reported following a signing ceremony attended by the National Development and Reform Commission, China Railway Corporation, and Export-Import Bank of China.

John Key, the prime minister of New Zealand, arrived in Vietnam for a state visit. Key’s trip is his first to Vietnam since 2010. Key met with Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and the two signed a series of bilateral agreements on a range of issues, including trade, investment, education, healthcare, and civil aviation. Notably, the two leaders said that they aimed to double trade between their two countries to $2.2 billion. Key’s trip to Vietnam comes afterDung visited New Zealand earlier this year, in July.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free trade agreement among 12 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, was concluded in October 2015.