Play The Diplomat’s Quiz: June 26, 2016 Edition

For the first time after a military coup deposed the civilian government of Yingluck Shinawatra, Thailand’s new head of state and military ruler Prayut Chan-o-cha visited India on Thursday. New Delhi has been looking forward to the Thai delegation, which will further boost ties with the Southeast Asian nation.

According to local media reports, maritime security cooperation in the Indian Ocean was high on Prayut’s agenda for the three-day visit.

In what’s quickly becoming a regular occurrence in Indonesia’s Natuna Sea exclusive economic zone (EEZ), an Indonesia’s Navy vessel recently faced off against a Chinese fishing boat that it claimed was fishing illegally. The incident occurred last Friday and is the third of its kind in the Natuna Sea in recent months involving Indonesian authorities at Chinese fishing boats. (The Diplomat covered the previous incidents in March and May.)

According to Indonesian press reports, an Indonesian Navy warship pursued and fired warning shots at a group of Chinese fishing trawlers operating within the 200-mile EEZ claimed by Indonesia around the Natuna Islands, which are part of Indonesia’s Riau Province. China claims that one Chinese sailor was injured as a result of a warning shot fired by the Indonesian side.

From: Reality or PR: Russia’s Rising ‘Soft Power’ Clout

All of this isn’t to say, necessarily, that Russia doesn’t maintain a notable amount “soft power” – the country’s cultural legacy, to say nothing of its position as a permanent member on the UN Security Council, would attest to as much. But the fact that Russia can exist within the top-30 countries – to say nothing of the fact that it is somehow ahead of China – casts significant questions on the utility of such findings.

India is considering purchasing multi-mission Predator Guardian unnamed patrol aircraft from U.S. defense contractor General Atomics, the Times of Indiahas revealed.

New Delhi has expressed its desire to procure the U.S.-made unmanned aerial vehicles in a letter of request dispatched to the United States last week to officially begin the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) process, accordingto unnamed sources.

The Indian military has previously expressed interest in the Predator Guardian UAV but allegedly was rebuffed by the United States since India was not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), and also did not have the status of Major Defense Partner.

From June 16 to 23, the United States and Thailand conducted the 22nd iteration of their annual Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training Exercise (CARAT).

This week, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) backed the decision by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) to maintain the organization’s ban on the participation of the Russian Athletics Federation (RusAF) in international track and field competitions. TheRussian team was suspended provisionally in November 2015 after the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) released a report detailing Moscow’s manipulation of the anti-doping process. WADA’s investigation was prompted by a 2014 documentary from ARD that alleged Russia was “making” winners through doping.

The IOC declared that it would “fully respect” the IAAF’s decision to maintain the ban. The IAAF decided on June 17 to refrain from lifting the ban, noting that the Russian Federation had not met requirements for reinstatement. A press release noted the “deep-seated culture of tolerance (or worse) for doping that led to RusAF being suspended in the first place appears not to have changed materially to date.”

Yesterday, North Korea launched two liquid-fueled Musudan (Hwasong-10) intermediate-range ballistic missiles. As I wrote then, the tests marked the fifth and sixth test launches of the missile this year. Testing began in mid-April, to coincide with the birth anniversary of Kim Il-sung, North Korea’s founder and grandfather to current leader Kim Jong-un. Sadly for Kim, all four tests prior to yesterday had failed either at launch or shortly after launch. (The Diplomat‘s John Power has a good round-up of the most recent tests at our Koreas channel.)

Tests one through four failed, and yesterday, the first test (test launch five) also failed, though it flew further than the previous tests. It turns out that the sixth and final Musudan tested to date actually demonstrated results suggesting a high degree of success. Japan’s Defense Minister Gen Nakatani noted an apogee of around 1,000 kilometers for the missile. The sixth Musudan also covered the most surface distance, traveling 400 kilometers from its launch site near the North Korean city of Wonsan, on the country’s eastern coast overlooking the Sea of Japan. (Incidentally, the first missile fired yesterday also flew 150 kilometers, a significant upgrade over the previous launches in April and May.)

Members, observers, and guests of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have gathered in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, for their annual summit. The multilateral organization concerns itself with the full kitchen-sink of topics–political, economic, security–but often seems to have little or no actual direction. The two-day summit will touch on the evergreen issues that plague the region: primarily security concerns stemming from Afghanistan and international terrorism. This summit, the organization’s 16th, may also see India and Pakistan join the group’s six present full members, its first expansion since Uzbekistan joined what had been known as the Shanghai Five in 2001.

Well before Taiwan held its elections on January 20, Beijing made it clear that the “1992 consensus” was its bottom line for cross-strait relations. During an historic meeting with then-President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan, Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that “as long as the 1992 Consensus and its core values are acknowledged, we stand ready to have contact.” The implied threat: if then-presidential favorite (and now president) Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party declined to embrace the 1992 Consensus, such “contact” might end.

Seven months, one election, and one presidential inauguration later, Beijing has made good on its threat. On Saturday, the Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement that communication mechanisms between the two sides had been “suspended” since Tsai assumed office.

The 1992 Consensus refers to an agreement between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan’s former ruling party. According to the consensus, the two sides agree that there is only one China, uniting both sides of the Taiwan strait – but with enough ambiguity so that each government (the People’s Republic of China in Beijing and the Republic of China in Taipei) could frame themselves as “China.”

Ever since the NSG was set up to respond to India’s 1974 test of a nuclear explosive device using peaceful-use nuclear materials supplied from the U.S. and Canada, the NSG has aimed to inhibit assistance to India’s nuclear weapons program. Should India join the NSG, it must decide whether the NSG should continue to deny nuclear trade to India. If the answer is yes, how will it do that with India in the room? If instead the NSG will no longer restrict trade with India, or restrict it less, must it not amend its own rules and procedures? On the eve of next week’s meeting, the NSG has not yet answered these questions.