Play The Diplomat’s Quiz: February 14, 2016 Edition

An investigation by China’s State Council found 123 people responsible for the explosions that rocked Tianjin last August, Xinhua reported today. TheAugust 12 explosions, which occurred at a chemical warehouse operated by Tianjin Ruihai International Logistics Co. Ltd., left 165 dead and hundred more injured.

Reporting in the immediate aftermath pointed to lax enforcement of public safety regulations, as well as shady dealings by Ruihai and local officials to circumvent the law. In response, China’s central government promised a full investigation, and pledged to focus on correct enforcement of safety regulations throughout the country.

Premier Li Keqiang was briefed on the investigation’s preliminary findings back in September. The preliminary report found “irregularities and illegal operations by the companies involved, and acts of corruption and dereliction of duty on the part of relevant departments.” Li himself promised that the people responsible would be “held accountable and punished in accordance with law and discipline.” At the time, the government hadalready begun investigations into 23 people, from executives at Ruihai Logistics to government officials.

Philippine President Benigno Aquino III accepted the resignation of influential Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario on Monday, the presidential palace confirmed.

“According to Executive Secretary Ochoa, President Aquino has accepted the resignation of Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario effective 7 March 2016,” Communications Secretary Herminio Coloma Jr. said in a statement.

While no further details were officially provided regarding his resignation, del Rosario, 76, has been suffering from a series of health issues, including a spinal problem as well as a recently detected heart ailment that caused doctors to implant a pacemaker back in November.

Del Rosario’s tenure, which began in February 2011, has witnessed several milestones in Philippine diplomacy, including the strengthening of the U.S.-Philippine alliance with the inking of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) in 2014. The agreement was approved by the Philippine Supreme Court last month (See: “Philippine Court Upholds New US Defense Pact”).

On February 6, an earthquake hit southern Taiwan, collapsing nine buildings and killing 38 people. The magnitude 6.4 earthquake caused major damage to Tainan City, most notably causing the collapse of a 16-story residential building – of the 38 confirmed dead, 36 were killed inside that apartment complex. Because of the timing of the quake, which hit just before 4 am local time, hundreds of residents were trapped inside. As of Monday, according to Taiwan’s Central News Agency, 120 people were still missing, and feared to be buried in the rubble.

Photographs of the scene showed the Weiguan Jinlong apartment building toppled onto its side. By Saturday afternoon, 123 people had been rescued by emergency workers. Efforts continued through Monday, with an 8-year-old girl and a woman in her mid-20s both pulled from the rubble.

What does North Korea’s decision to stage a nuclear test and the launch of a space launch vehicle (SLV) a month apart in early 2016 tell us about where things stand domestically inside the country? To be sure, both events are intended to test technologies the regime attaches great importance to, but, in North Korea, nothing of this sort is scheduled without consideration of the broader political effects. “Politics” in the North Korean context, of course, means something very specific: it refers primarily to Kim Jong-un’s agenda of still-ongoing power consolidation and implementation of the byungjin policy of simultaneously pursuing economic development and a nuclear deterrent.

It’s notable that in this year’s New Year’s address, Kim placed a special emphasis on improving the economic lot of ordinary North Koreans. In fact, he managed to explicitly avoid any direct reference to the country’s nuclear program. I found that surprising at the time, given suggestions in 2015 that the United States and China had come to some sort of understanding on North Korea’s byungjin stance—surely Kim couldn’t have missed an opportunity to underline his signature policy on the occasion of the new year? It was, after all, his response to his father’s songun, or military-first, policy that caused untold economic damage to the country, persisting to this day.

On Tuesday, the United States and Thailand kicked off the 2016 iteration of the annual Cobra Gold military exercises – Asia’s largest multinational drill – amid lingering concerns by Washington about its ally’s democratic future.

Royal Thai Army Supreme Commander, General Sommai Kaotira,  and U.S. Ambassador to Thailand, Glyn Davies, launched the 35th iteration of the annual exercise – which began as a bilateral drill between Washington and Bangkok – at the Royal Thai Navy Command Center in Sattahip district in Chonburi province.

Last week, the fifth of six Kilo-class submarines that Vietnam bought from Russia arrived in the Southeast Asian state, local media outlets reported.

According to Thanh Nien News, the HQ-186, delivered by Dutch-registered cargo ship Rolldock Star, arrived at Cam Ranh Bay in Khanh Hoa province last Tuesday evening. The submarine laid at anchor near Cam Ranh Port and was scheduled to arrive at the port thereafter.

With North Korea bent on making 2016 interesting–testing a nuclear device on January 6 and launching a satellite over this past weekend–South Korea has pulled one of the few cards remaining in its hand and has decided to unilaterally withdraw from the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The South Korean Unification Ministry said in a statement that the complex would be shut down temporarily in response to recent North Korean provocations. The complex was cited by the Ministry as source of income for North Korea:

“Until now, about 616 billion Korean won (about $516 million) have flowed into North Korea via the KIC, with 132 billion won alone last year. It is crucial for South Korea to actively get involved in sanctions while the international community discusses tougher sanctions (on North Korea) for violating UN resolutions and pushing forward with a nuclear test and missile launch.”

An unnamed ministry official was more direct to Yonhap News Agency, linking the complex to North Korea’s nuclear program: “The operation of the complex should not be used for North Korea’s development of weapons of mass destruction at a time when the international community is pushing for tougher sanctions against the North.”

Indonesia has agreed to purchase 10 Russian Sukhoi Su-35S multirole fighter jets, according to Indonesian media reports. Indonesia’s Minister of Defense, General Ryamizard Ryacudu, will visit Moscow in March to sign the final agreement.

Already in September 2015, Gen. Ryamizard announced that a decision to purchase Russian jets had been made.  “A decision was made to decommission U.S. F-5 Tiger fighter jets and purchase Russian aircraft instead of them,” Indonesia news agency ANTARA quoted the defense minister as saying. “The purchase will be made gradually, depending on the financial possibilities of the country’s government,” he added.

In January 2016, Indonesia’s ambassador to Russia, Djauhari Oratmangun, still only told Russian media that “negotiations are ongoing. The Minister of Defense wants to visit Russia in April to continue the discussions.” Yet, the date appears now to have been pushed forward and negotiations concluded.

The Guardian Council is perhaps best analogized as the amalgamation of an election monitoring body and a Supreme Court. In the Iranian context, the group is tasked with ensuring ideological continuity with the revolution that Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, envisioned in 1979. The way the Guardian Council exercises this power in reality is hugely important: without its imprimatur, candidates cannot appear on the ballot on election day. In reality, this means that reformists and moderates of all stripes are banned from participating in the elections.

In the past month, we’ve seen the Guardian Council make some important decisions that serve as a barometer of just how much change should be expected in the upcoming elections. In late January, news emerged that of 30,000 candidates that could reasonably be described as “reformist” in their views, the Council approved a vanishingly small number: 30. In February, the Council eased up a bit, reversing its decision for 1,500 candidates. Currently, a total number of 6,200 candidates are expected to run for Iran’s 290-seat majlis. It’s not clear just how many of those candidates are moderates and reformists. Similarly, 74 percent of candidates interested in the Assembly of Experts were prohibited from running.

A decision is expected in the pending case between the Philippines and China over disputed claims in the South China Sea in May,according to the Philippines. A separate Reuters report suggests that the Philippines is open to considering bilateral talks to resolve their disputes in the South China Sea provided that the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague rules in its favor in their case. In October 2015, the Court decided on the issue of jurisdiction, ruling mostly in the Philippines’ favor. China is not officially participating in the case, but the Court is treating a position paper submitted by Beijing in early 2015 as an official document.