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Tristan Kenderdine

Tristan Kenderdine

Tristan Kenderdine is Research Director at Future Risk, working on China’s geoeconomic policy in Central Asia and the Middle East.

Tristan’s work focuses on the public administration and public finance of economic development in China and Eurasian states. Consulting work has covered resources, agroindustrial and hydrocarbon markets; law of the sea, polar politics, and industrial policy. Tristan has published in outlets such as Financial Times, Nikkei Asian Review, South China Morning Post and The Straits Times. E-mail: [email protected], Twitter: @futurerisks

Posts by Tristan Kenderdine
August 25, 2022

What Kenya’s Presidential Election Means for China’s Belt and Road Initiative

By Erick Manga and Tristan Kenderdine
The country's president-elect has promised to review and renegotiate the opaque BRI contracts brokered by the previous government.

February 04, 2022

Who Makes Foreign Policy in China?

By Tristan Kenderdine
There are at least 8 distinct forms of foreign policy in China. Approaching the 2022 leadership transition, it is important to understand the various institutions in play.
February 01, 2022

Xi Loyalist Ding Xuexiang Could Benefit From Factional Infighting

By Tristan Kenderdine
Certain to remain on the Politburo, Ding’s quest to reach the Standing Committee will depend on the results of political infighting between rival cliques.  

October 08, 2021

China’s Foreign Affairs Director Seat May Fall out of the Politburo

By Tristan Kenderdine
Without any strong contender emerging to replace Yang Jiechi, the next director of the Office of Foreign Affairs could be cut from the Politburo, opening a slot for a different party position.

September 17, 2021

Rural Affairs Specialist Han Jun Likely to Ascend to Vice Premier in 2022

By Tristan Kenderdine
Han Jun’s elevation to Jilin governor puts this rural policy careerist in strong contention for one of four State Council vice premier positions in 2022.

September 03, 2021

Sub-Provincial City Cadres: China’s Leadership Cohort for 2027 and Beyond

By Tristan Kenderdine
Sub-provincial city governance positions are often the last policy-testing ground before promotion to ministerial-level cadre rank, and the possibilities of central leadership positions that this brings.
August 31, 2021

Chen Gang a Dark Horse to Lead China’s Strategic Technoindustrial Policy

By Tristan Kenderdine
Chen Gang will likely enter the Politburo in 2027. His experience governing technoindustrial clusters will be a valuable skill set for top governance positions through the 2020s.

August 27, 2021

Chen Min’er Guarantees Xi Jinping’s Influence Into the 2030s

By Tristan Kenderdine
Chen Min'er has long been near the top of China’s governance structure. His development as a likeness to Xi means he is now the conduit between the elder and younger factions of Xi’s New Core.

August 24, 2021

Shen Yiqin, Party Historian, to Bring Depth to CCP Politburo

By Tristan Kenderdine
Shen Yiqin, a party history expert and representative of the emerging Guizhou faction, is the leading female candidate for Politburo promotion in 2022.

June 14, 2021

Emerging Ethnic Affairs Policy Specialist Chen Run’er Could Take Over as Xinjiang Party Secretary

By Tristan Kenderdine
A low flier on a newly established institutional trajectory toward ethnic affairs governance, Chen Run’er could replace the infamous Chen Quanguo at the 2022 CCP Congress.

June 07, 2021

Chen Quanguo, Architect of Xinjiang Crackdown, Likely to be Rewarded With Central Position in 2022

By Tristan Kenderdine
Xinjiang Party Secretary Chen Quanguo will likely see a promotion at the 2022 Communist Party Congress, perhaps to vice premier.
April 12, 2021

Zhao Kezhi’s Legacy Could Define China’s Regional Security Paradigm

By Tristan Kenderdine
The 20th Party Congress will mark the end of Zhao’s CCP career, but his internal affairs policy will continue.

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